Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °C
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To limit global warming to <2 °C we must reduce the net amount of CO2 we release into the atmosphere, either by producing less CO2 (conventional mitigation) or by capturing more CO2 (negative emissions). Here, using state-of-the-art carbon–climate models, we quantify the trade-off between these two options in RCP2.6: an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario likely to limit global warming below 2 °C. In our best-case illustrative assumption of conventional mitigation, negative emissions of 0.5–3 Gt C (gigatonnes of carbon) per year and storage capacity of 50–250 Gt C are required. In our worst case, those requirements are 7–11 Gt C per year and 1,000–1,600 Gt C, respectively. Because these figures have not been shown to be feasible, we conclude that development of negative emission technologies should be accelerated, but also that conventional mitigation must remain a substantial part of any climate policy aiming at the 2-°C target. It is widely acknowledged that some form of carbon capture will be necessary to limit global warming to less than 2 °C, but to what extent remains unclear. Here, using climate-carbon models, the authors quantify the amount of negative emissions and carbon storage capacity required to meet this target.
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Many experts argue that to meet critical climate goals, global emissions must become net-negative-that is, we must remove more CO2 from the atmosphere than we release.
“Instead, many experts argue that to meet critical climate goals, global emissions must become net-negative-that is, we must remove more CO 2 from the atmosphere than we release [259,269].”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [269]
There is an inevitable need for negative emissions, even at very high rates of conventional mitigation efforts.
“The results indicate the inevitable need for negative emissions, even at very high rates of conventional mitigation efforts.”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Gasser et al. 2015
In the best-case scenario, negative emissions of 0.5-3 Gt C/year and 50-250 Gt C of storage capacity are required to limit global warming to less than 2°C.
“The results indicated that in the best-case scenario, that is under the best assumptions on conventional mitigation efforts, negative emissions of 0.5-3Gt C year -1 and 50-250 Gt C of storage capacity are required.”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Gasser et al. 2015
Negative emissions alone should not be relied upon to meet the 2°C target.
“Furthermore, the study suggests that negative emissions alone should not be relied upon to meet the 2 °C target.”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Gasser et al. 2015
In the worst-case scenario, negative emissions of 7-11 Gt C/year and 1000-1600 Gt C of storage capacity are required to limit global warming to less than 2°C.
“Based on a worst-case scenario, negative emissions of 7-11 Gt C year -1 and 1000-1600 Gt C of storage capacity are required.”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Gasser et al. 2015
Negative emissions technologies are still at an infant stage of development.
“The investigation concluded that since negative emissions technologies are still at an infant stage of development, conventional mitigation technologies should remain focused upon within climate policy, while further financial resources are to be mobilized to accelerate the development of negative emissions technologies (Gasser et al. 2015).”
From Strategies for mitigation of climate change: a review (2020) · cites this paper as Gasser et al. 2015
Simultaneous actions on negative emissions through sustainable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies and engineered enhancement of natural carbon sinks are also urgently required.
“simultaneous actions on negative emissions through sustainable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies and engineered enhancement of natural carbon sinks are also urgently required (Gasser et al. 2015; Rogeljet al., 2016).”
From A review on biochar modulated soil condition improvements and nutrient dynamics concerning crop yields: Pathways to climate change mitigation and global food security (2019) · cites this paper as Gasser et al. 2015
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- Authors
- Gasser, T., Guivarch, C., Tachiiri, K., Jones, C. D., & Ciais, P.
- Affiliations
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JP)
- Met Office (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Gasser, T.
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2015-08-03
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 7958-7958
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2261642496
- Cited by
- 374
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 38 · 2024: 42 · 2023: 36 · 2022: 40 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 41 · 2018: 40 · 2017: 28 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 7
- FWCI
- 73.06
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government (GA01101)
- Met Office (GA01101)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- FP7 Ideas: European Research Council (610028)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- carbon dioxide removal, 2°C target, carbon capture and storage, carbon storage capacity, CO2 emission reduction, climate policy
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