COVID-19 diagnosis by routine blood tests using machine learning
Open accessAbstract
Physicians taking care of patients with COVID-19 have described different changes in routine blood parameters. However, these changes hinder them from performing COVID-19 diagnoses. We constructed a machine learning model for COVID-19 diagnosis that was based and cross-validated on the routine blood tests of 5333 patients with various bacterial and viral infections, and 160 COVID-19-positive patients. We selected the operational ROC point at a sensitivity of 81.9% and a specificity of 97.9%. The cross-validated AUC was 0.97. The five most useful routine blood parameters for COVID-19 diagnosis according to the feature importance scoring of the XGBoost algorithm were: MCHC, eosinophil count, albumin, INR, and prothrombin activity percentage. t-SNE visualization showed that the blood parameters of the patients with a severe COVID-19 course are more like the parameters of a bacterial than a viral infection. The reported diagnostic accuracy is at least comparable and probably complementary to RT-PCR and chest CT studies. Patients with fever, cough, myalgia, and other symptoms can now have initial routine blood tests assessed by our diagnostic tool. All patients with a positive COVID-19 prediction would then undergo standard RT-PCR studies to confirm the diagnosis. We believe that our results represent a significant contribution to improvements in COVID-19 diagnosis.
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Owing to limited specificity of individual predictors, artificial intelligence approaches applied to richer predictor sets are necessary to achieve clinically-acceptable performance.
“However, owing to limited specificity of individual predictors, artificial intelligence approaches applied to richer predictor sets are necessary to achieve clinically-acceptable performance.21”
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- Authors
- Kukar, M., Gunčar, G., Vovko, T., Podnar, S., Černelč, P., Brvar, M., Zalaznik, M., Notar, M., Moškon, S., & Notar, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Ljubljana (SI)
- Ljubljana University Medical Centre (SI)
- Corresponding author
- Notar, Mateja
- Notar, Marko
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2021-05-24
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 10738-10738
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8144373
- OpenAlex
- W3033612360
- Cited by
- 179
- References
- 43
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 47 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 5
- FWCI
- 11.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- Smart Blood Analytics Swiss SA
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › COVID-19 diagnosis using AI
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- Keywords
- COVID-19 diagnosis, routine blood tests, machine learning, XGBoost, feature importance, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, eosinophil count, albumin, international normalized ratio, prothrombin activity, t-SNE visualization, diagnostic accuracy
- MeSH terms
- Machine Learning, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Aged, Eosinophils, Female, Hematologic Tests, Humans, Male, Prothrombin, ROC Curve, Sensitivity and Specificity, Serum Albumin, Severity of Illness Index, Thorax, Tomography, X-Ray Computed, Biomarkers, Area Under Curve
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