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Longitudinal cardio-respiratory fitness prediction through wearables in free-living environments
Open accessAbstract
Cardiorespiratory fitness is an established predictor of metabolic disease and mortality. Fitness is directly measured as maximal oxygen consumption (VO 2max), or indirectly assessed using heart rate responses to standard exercise tests. However, such testing is costly and burdensome because it requires specialized equipment such as treadmills and oxygen masks, limiting its utility. Modern wearables capture dynamic real-world data which could improve fitness prediction. In this work, we design algorithms and models that convert raw wearable sensor data into cardiorespiratory fitness estimates. We validate these estimates’ ability to capture fitness profiles in free-living conditions using the Fenland Study (N=11,059), along with its longitudinal cohort (N = 2675), and a third external cohort using the UK Biobank Validation Study (N = 181) who underwent maximal VO 2max testing, the gold standard measurement of fitness. Our results show that the combination of wearables and other biomarkers as inputs to neural networks yields a strong correlation to ground truth in a holdout sample (r = 0.82, 95CI 0.80–0.83), outperforming other approaches and models and detects fitness change over time (e.g., after 7 years). We also show how the model’s latent space can be used for fitness-aware patient subtyping paving the way to scalable interventions and personalized trial recruitment. These results demonstrate the value of wearables for fitness estimation that today can be measured only with laboratory tests.
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The model detects fitness change over time (e.g. after 7 years).
“It also detects fitness change over time (e.g. after 7 years).”
From Human-centred artificial intelligence for mobile health sensing: challenges and opportunities (2023) · cites this paper as [136]
A recent large-scale analysis using Fenland Study (N = 11 059), its longitudinal cohort (N = 2675), and UK Biobank Validation Study (N = 181) showed that combination of wearables and other biomarkers as inputs to neural networks yields a strong correlation to ground truth in a holdout sample (r = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.80-0.83).
“A recent large-scale analysis used data from Fenland Study (N = 11 059), along with its longitudinal cohort (N = 2675), and a third external cohort using the UK Biobank Validation Study (N = 181) who underwent maximal VO2max testing, to show that the combination of wearables and other biomarkers as inputs to neural networks yields a strong correlation to ground truth in a holdout sample (r = 0.82,”
From Human-centred artificial intelligence for mobile health sensing: challenges and opportunities (2023) · cites this paper as [136]
The model's latent space can also be used for fitness-aware patient subtyping paving the way to scalable interventions and personalized trial recruitment.
“Notably, the model’s latent space can also be used for fitness-aware patient subtyping paving the way to scalable interventions and personalized trial recruitment.”
From Human-centred artificial intelligence for mobile health sensing: challenges and opportunities (2023) · cites this paper as [136]
Large population-scale studies showed that HR responses can predict VO2max.
“while large population-scale studies showed that these HR responses can predict VO2max [136].”
From Human-centred artificial intelligence for mobile health sensing: challenges and opportunities (2023) · cites this paper as [136]
Apple's CRF feature is publicly validated on 221 participants while non-commercial methods use population-scale data from more than 11 000 participants.
“For example, Apple’s CRF feature is publicly validated on 221 participants [135] while non-commercial methods use population-scale data from more than 11 000 participants [136].”
From Human-centred artificial intelligence for mobile health sensing: challenges and opportunities (2023) · cites this paper as [136]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Spathis, D., Perez-Pozuelo, I., Gonzales, T. I., Wu, Y., Brage, S., Wareham, N., & Mascolo, C.
- Affiliations
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Spathis, Dimitris
- Venue
- npj Digital Medicine
- Published
- 2022-12-02
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 176-176
- ISSN
- 2398-6352 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC9718831
- OpenAlex
- W4311185331
- Cited by
- 30
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 1
- FWCI
- 3.25
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- npj Digital Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- RCUK | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/N509620/1)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Physical Activity and Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology (medical) › Cardiovascular and exercise physiology
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Biomedical Engineering › Non-Invasive Vital Sign Monitoring
- Keywords
- cardiorespiratory fitness, VO2max, wearable sensors, fitness prediction, free-living conditions, heart rate, artificial neural networks, patient subtyping, UK Biobank
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