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Cited by 83Environmental Impact and SustainabilityExtraction and Separation ProcessesPhotovoltaic Systems and Sustainability

Think global act local: The dependency of global lithium-ion battery emissions on production location and material sources

Open access
Kallitsis, Evangelos, Lindsay, Jordan J., Chordia, Mudit, Wu, Billy, Offer, Gregory J., Edge, Jacqueline S.·2024·Journal of Cleaner Production
DOI 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141725

Published version of a preprint

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Abstract

Abstract The pursuit of low-carbon transport has significantly increased demand for lithium-ion batteries. However, the rapid increase in battery manufacturing, without adequate consideration of the carbon emissions associated with their production and material demands, poses the threat of shifting the bulk of emissions upstream. In this article, a life cycle assessment (LCA)-inspired model is developed to account for battery material and energy demand contributions for the cradle-to-gate carbon footprint of lithium-ion batteries across the world’s dominant battery manufacturing locations. Analysis of published LCA data reveals a significant level of uncertainty associated with the carbon emissions of key battery materials, with the 95 % confidence interval for nickel and cobalt containing chemistries ranging from 40 to 90 kg CO2-eq kWh-1. The gate-to-gate carbon footprint of battery manufacturing is found to vary highly with predicted median values ranging between 0.15 and 94.5 kg CO2-eq kWh-1, depending on production location. Leading western-world battery manufacturing locations in the US and Europe, such as Kentucky and Poland are found to have comparable carbon emissions to Chinese rivals, even exceeding the carbon emissions of battery manufacturing in some Chinese provinces. Such resolution on material and energy contributions to the carbon footprint of batteries is essential to inform policy- and decision- making in order to minimise the carbon emissions of the battery value chain.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This study develops a cradle-to-gate LCA and Monte Carlo model to quantify how battery material sources and production location affect lithium-ion battery carbon footprints across Chinese provinces, North America, Europe, and Asia. It finds material contributions vary by about a factor of 4 and that some Chinese provinces can match or beat Western locations, with global LIB industry emissions projected at 0.5–1.0 Gt CO₂-eq/year within the next decade.

Key findings

  • Material contribution to cradle-to-gate CF varies by ca. a factor of 4 depending on production route and source; median material contributions are 64.3, 56.1, 47.4, 47.8 and 28.3 kg CO₂-eq kWh⁻¹ for NMC111, NMC622, NMC811, NCA and LFP, respectively, with an arithmetic LIB average of 48.8 kg CO₂-eq kWh⁻¹ (range 22–75.3).
  • Gate-to-gate manufacturing CF median values range from 0.1 to 69.5 kg CO₂-eq kWh⁻¹; examples include Sweden 2.8, Norway 1.6, Poland 39.6, Germany 21.9, Kentucky 47.2, Sichuan 12.0, Yunnan 8.7, Tianjin 69.5 and Jiangsu 59.9 kg CO₂-eq kWh⁻¹.
  • Cradle-to-gate median CFs are 57.5–118.4 kg CO₂-eq kWh⁻¹ in Chinese provinces, 48.9–96.0 kg CO₂-eq kWh⁻¹ across North America and 50.4–88.4 kg CO₂-eq kWh⁻¹ in European battery manufacturing countries; Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai and Hubei have medians of 57.5–80.6 kg CO₂-eq kWh⁻¹.
  • Global LIB industry emissions are projected to reach 0.5–1.0 Gt CO₂-eq per year within the next decade, with the upper bound comparable to Japan’s annual GHG emissions or the production emissions of 220 million internal combustion engine cars.

Methods

  • A streamlined cradle-to-gate LCA follows ISO principles, with the functional unit set as 1 kWh of battery cell capacity; the foreground system includes cathode active material preparation, electrode preparation, cell production, assembly and conditioning, while the background system includes battery material production and energy sources. Use phase and end-of-life are excluded.
  • Data include 53 sources for the CF of key battery materials (Li₂CO₃, LiOH, CoSO₄, MnSO₄, NiSO₄, FeSO₄, H₃PO₄, graphite, Al, Cu); production locations are based on the projected Gigafactory pipeline in 2035, covering 26 Chinese provinces, 20 North American locations and 19 countries in Europe and Asia.
  • A Monte Carlo simulation generates 100,000 random numbers from uniform distributions for material CFs; gate-to-gate energy demand is assumed to vary between 40 and 80 kWh kWh⁻¹ cell and is multiplied by location-specific electricity carbon intensity, then combined with material contributions.

Limitations

  • The paper states that material CFs are assumed to follow a uniform distribution, that market-share-based distributions are not possible due to scarce information, that some prevalent supply routes (e.g., Australian lithium, Indonesian nickel) are under-represented, and that results should be seen as indicative rather than definitive. It also excludes use phase, end-of-life, facility/equipment requirements, transport (noted as around 5% of overall CF) and materials below a 2% cut-off.
  • The paper states that electricity emission factors are based on administrative boundaries, assuming a Gigafactory sources from the local grid; within-region variations (e.g., state-level Germany) are not fully accounted for, some locations may decarbonise faster, and the 2035 projection does not attribute specific plants to specific battery chemistries.
  • Evident from the text: reliance on secondary data and LCA databases with different impact assessment methods may affect comparability, and no primary data are currently available for laterite-based nickel pathways or most spodumene-based lithium routes.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141725

Cites

42 of 42 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 68 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data

    The links between production location and the gate-to-gate carbon footprint of battery manufacturing are explored, with predicted median values ranging between 0.1 and 69.5 kg CO2-eq kWh-1.

    “The links between production location and the gate-to-gate carbon footprint of battery manufacturing are explored, with predicted median values ranging between 0.1 and 69.5 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Depending on the carbon intensity of electricity grid mixes in each location as defined by the proportion of renewable energy versus fossil fuels, the contribution to the overall CF of a LIB can vary by an order of magnitude.

    “Depending on the carbon intensity of electricity grid mixes in each location as defined by the proportion of renewable energy versus fossil fuels, the contribution to the overall CF of a LIB can vary by an order of magnitude.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The gate-to-gate energy demand range of 40-80 kWh/kWh cell is representative for all battery chemistries.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All energy requirement can be represented as electricity values, although it includes heating and cooling.
  • Findingown data

    An arithmetic average for all LIB chemistries is calculated with a median of 48.8 kg CO2-eq kWh-1 and whisker values ranging from 22 to 75.3 kg CO2-eq kWh-1.

    “An arithmetic average for all LIB chemistries is also calculated with a median of 48.8 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 and whisker values ranging from 22 to 75.3 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingreasoning

    In Europe, producing batteries in Sweden and Norway can come with a low median gate-to-gate CF of 2.8 and 1.6 kg CO2-eq kWh-1, respectively.

    “In Europe, producing batteries in Sweden and Norway can come with a low median CF of 2.8 and 1.6 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 , respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The gate-to-gate energy demand range of 40-80 kWh/kWh cell is representative for all battery chemistries.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All energy requirement can be represented as electricity values, although it includes heating and cooling.
  • Findingown data

    The median material contribution to the cradle-to-gate CF for NMC111, NMC622, NMC811, NCA and LFP are 64.3, 56.1, 47.4, 47.8 and 28.3 kg CO2-eq kWh-1 for a cell of given capacity.

    “The median values for NMC111, NMC622, NMC811, NCA and LFP are 64.3,56.1, 47.4, 47.8 and 28.3 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 for a cell of given capacity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 39
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 26

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Analysis of published LCA data reveals significant uncertainty associated with the carbon emissions of key battery materials; their overall contribution to the carbon footprint of a LIB varies by a factor of ca. 4 depending on production route and source.

    “Analysis of published LCA data reveals significant uncertainty associated with the carbon emissions of key battery materials; their overall contribution to the carbon footprint of a LIB varies by a factor of ca. 4 depending on production route and source.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Leading western-world battery manufacturing locations in the US and Europe, such as Kentucky and Poland, have comparable carbon emissions to Chinese rivals, even exceeding the carbon emissions of battery manufacturing in several Chinese provinces.

    “Leading western-world battery manufacturing locations in the US and Europe, such as Kentucky and Poland are found to have comparable carbon emissions to Chinese rivals, even exceeding the carbon emissions of battery manufacturing in several Chinese provinces.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    NiSO4 can be produced from sulphide and laterite ores, with the lower bound (1.8 kg CO2-eq kg-1) corresponding to production in Russia from sulphide ores and the upper bound (22.4 kg CO2-eq kg-1) providing an estimate for the conversion of nickel pig iron to matte.

    “NiSO 4 can be produced from sulphide and laterite ores, with the lower bound (1.8 kg CO 2 -eq kg -1 ) corresponding to production in Russia from sulphide ores (Norilsk Nickel, 2022) and the upper bound (22.4 kg CO 2 -eq kg -1 ) providing an estimate for the conversion of nickel pig iron to matte, which could be further processed to NiSO 4 (IEA, 2021).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Norilsk Nickel, 2022

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    • cites IEA, 2021

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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The carbon footprint for LiOH varies between 5.5 and 19.2 kg CO2-eq kg-1 and that of Li2CO3 between 2.1 and 33 kg CO2-eq kg-1.

    “The CF for LiOH varies between 5.5 and 19.2 kg CO 2 -eq kg -1 and that of Li 2 CO 3 between 2.1 and 33 kg CO 2 -eq kg -1 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Chordia et al., 2022 source

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    • cites Schenker et al., 2022 source

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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Both natural and synthetic graphite result in a high energy intensity, making their CF sensitive to regional electricity mixes, with the CF for natural graphite production predicted to be almost three times lower in North America, compared to China.

    “Both products result in a high energy intensity, making their CF sensitive to regional electricity mixes, with the CF for natural graphite production predicted to be almost three times lower in North America, compared to China.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The values for MnSO4 are bounded between 0.7 and 4.8 kg CO2-eq kg-1, with the ones included in the Ecoinvent and GREET databases falling towards the lower end of the spectrum.

    “The values for MnSO 4 are bounded between 0.7 and 4.8 kg CO 2 -eq kg -1 , with the ones included in the Ecoinvent and GREET databases falling towards the lower end of the spectrum.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Ecoinvent

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    • cites GREET

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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The values in Fig. 2 range from 4 to 35.6 kg CO2-eq kg-1 for CoSO4, with the lower bound corresponding to a market-average from the Cobalt Institute and the upper bound being representative of both mining and refining processes taking place in China.

    “However, the values in Fig. 2 range from 4 to 35.6 kg CO 2 -eq kg -1 , with the lower bound corresponding to a market-average from the Cobalt Institute (Cobalt Institute, 2019) and the upper bound being representative of both mining and refining processes taking place in China (Zhang et al., 2021).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Cobalt Institute, 2019

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    • cites Zhang et al., 2021 source

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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Depending on production location and the source of materials, median LIB carbon footprints of 57.5-118.4 kg CO2-eq kWh-1 are observed in Chinese provinces, 48.9-96.0 kg CO2-eq kWh-1 across North America and 50.4-88.4 kg CO2-eq kWh-1 in European battery manufacturing countries.

    “Depending on production location and the source of materials, median LIB carbon footprints of 57.5-118.4kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 are observed in Chinese provinces, 48.9-96.0kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 across North America and 50.4-88.4kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 in European battery manufacturing countries.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Material contributions to the carbon footprint of LIB manufacturing in each location remain unchanged; the variation in the carbon emissions of each key LIB material is independent of where battery manufacturing takes place.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Kentucky is leading the way in North America in terms of projected pipeline capacity, with the median gate-to-gate CF estimated as 47.2 kg CO2-eq kWh-1 which is quantitatively similar to that of Zhejiang, with the latter expected to produce 563 GWh of LIBs by 2035.

    “In addition, Kentucky is leading the way in North America in terms of projected pipeline capacity, with the median gate-to-gate CF estimated as 47.2 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 which is quantitatively similar to that of Zhejiang, with the latter expected to produce 563 GWh of LIBs by 2035.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The gate-to-gate energy demand range of 40-80 kWh/kWh cell is representative for all battery chemistries.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All energy requirement can be represented as electricity values, although it includes heating and cooling.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The level of detail employed uncovers significant variations within Chinese provinces, with low carbon manufacturing locations being able to compete with European or North American locations in terms of GHG emissions.

    “The level of detail employed herein uncovers significant variations within Chinese provinces, with low carbon manufacturing location being able to compete with European or North American location in terms of GHG emissions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Poland and Germany lead the way in terms of projected battery production capacity but use carbon-intensive electricity mixes leading to a much higher median gate-to-gate carbon footprint of 39.6 and 21.9 kg CO2-eq kWh-1, respectively.

    “Meanwhile, Poland and Germany lead the way in terms of projected battery production capacity but use carbonintensive electricity mixes leading to a much higher median gate-togate carbon footprint of 39.6 and 21.9 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 , respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The gate-to-gate energy demand range of 40-80 kWh/kWh cell is representative for all battery chemistries.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All energy requirement can be represented as electricity values, although it includes heating and cooling.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The projected battery manufacturing capacity of Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai and Hubei in 2035 is quantitatively similar to the combined capacity for all European countries, with the median CF of the former ranging from 57.5 to 80.6 kg CO2-eq kWh-1.

    “The projected battery manufacturing capacity of Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai and Hubei in 2035 is quantitatively similar to the combined capacity for all European countries, with the median CF of the former ranging from 57.5 to 80.6 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Material contributions to the carbon footprint of LIB manufacturing in each location remain unchanged; the variation in the carbon emissions of each key LIB material is independent of where battery manufacturing takes place.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The Chinese province of Sichuan is expected to produce the same amount of LIBs in 2035 as Germany and Poland combined, with a median gate-to-gate CF of 12.0 kg CO2-eq kWh-1.

    “The Chinese province of Sichuan is expected to produce the same amount of LIBs in 2035 as Germany and Poland combined, with a median gate-to-gate CF of 12.0 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The gate-to-gate energy demand range of 40-80 kWh/kWh cell is representative for all battery chemistries.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All energy requirement can be represented as electricity values, although it includes heating and cooling.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The production carbon footprint of a LIB is primarily made up of energy contributions, traced to cathode active material production and cell manufacturing, and material contributions associated with upstream mining/refining of key battery materials.

    “The production CF of a LIB is primarily made up of energy contributions, traced to cathode active material production and cell manufacturing, and material contributions associated with upstream mining/refining of key battery materials (Chordia et al., 2021;Dai et al., 2019;Kallitsis et al., 2020).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Chordia et al., 2021 source

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    • cites Dai et al., 2019 source

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    • cites Kallitsis et al., 2020 source

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    Premisecitation

    Unlocking the full climate benefit of electrification requires further decarbonisation of upstream LIB production.

    “it is now evident that unlocking the full climate benefit of electrification requires further decarbonisation of upstream LIB production (Milovanoff et al., 2020;Peiseler et al., 2022).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Milovanoff et al., 2020 source

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    • cites Peiseler et al., 2022 source

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    Premisecitation

    Battery material production and large-scale LIB manufacturing are GHG emission hotspots in the battery life cycle.

    “previously published evidence that has identified battery material production and large-scale LIB manufacturing as GHG emission hotspots in the battery life cycle (Chordia et al., 2021;Kallitsis, 2023;Peiseler et al., 2022).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Chordia et al., 2021 source

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    • cites Kallitsis, 2023

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    • cites Peiseler et al., 2022 source

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  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Previous research has shown that batteries produced in China come with 26%-140% higher carbon footprint compared to those produced in Europe or the United States.

    “Previous research has shown that batteries produced in China come with 26 %-140 % higher CF compared to those produced in Europe or the United States (Kallitsis et al., 2022a;Kelly et al., 2020;Linder et al., 2023).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Kallitsis et al., 2022a

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    • cites Kelly et al., 2020 source

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    • cites Linder et al., 2023

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  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The LCA principles and framework (ISO, 2014, 2006) are followed to construct a model capable of predicting the carbon footprint of commonly used battery chemistries in electric vehicles.

    “The LCA principles and framework (ISO, 2014(ISO, , 2006) ) are followed to construct a model capable of predicting the CF of commonly used battery chemistries in electric vehicles.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites ISO, 2014

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    • cites ISO, 2006

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    Premisecitation

    Cathode active material synthesis accounts for more than 50% of production costs, carbon footprint and environmental impacts.

    “A recent study reported that cathode active material synthesis accounts for more than 50% of production costs, CF and environmental impacts (Gutsch and Leker, 2024).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Gutsch and Leker, 2024 source

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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Reported carbon footprints are calculated based on different impact assessment methods which exhibit methodological variations and would lead to slightly different estimations for the carbon footprint.

    “Due to the utilisation of various sources, it is acknowledged that reported CFs are calculated based on different impact assessment methods which exhibit methodological variations and would lead to slightly different estimations for the CF.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Studies by Kelly et al. (2020) and Winjobi et al. (2022) have relied on a single database, the GREET model, and focused on a single chemistry, NMC and its variations.

    “Studies by Kelly et al. (2020) and Winjobi et al. (2022) have explored regional variations on the CF of LIBs based on market-dominant battery manufacturing supply chains.However, both studies have relied on a single database, the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transport (GREET) model, and focused on a single chemistry, lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) and its”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Kelly et al. (2020) source

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    • cites Winjobi et al. (2022) source

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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The LCA model is streamlined by neglecting any facility and equipment requirements.

    “The LCA model is streamlined by neglecting any facility and equipment requirements.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The battery use phase and end-of-life are beyond the scope of this study.

    “The battery use phase and end-of-life are important steps in the battery life cycle (Gutsch and Leker, 2024;Lander et al., 2021), however their assessment is beyond the scope of this study.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Specific states within the United States and Canada have fundamentally different carbon intensities of their regional energy supply which has a direct effect on the carbon footprint of battery production.

    “specific states within the United States and Canada have fundamentally different carbon intensities of their regional energy supply which has a direct effect on the CF of battery production.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    While spodumene-based pathways tend to be more GHG intensive due to their energy and carbon intensity, producing lithium products from low grade brines can reach similar climate impacts.

    “While spodumene-based pathways tend to be more GHG intensive due to their energy and carbon intensity, producing lithium products from low grade brines can reach similar climate impacts (Chordia et al., 2022).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Chordia et al., 2022 source

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  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The impact assessment is only focused on the carbon footprint, which is used here to represent the 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP).

    “The impact assessment is only focused on the CF, which is used here to represent the 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP) (IPCC, 2023).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites IPCC, 2023

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  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    The carbon footprint of LIBs depends not only on the source of battery materials and the location where battery manufacturing takes place, but also on the battery chemistry, as different types of materials and energy densities affect the material demand to produce LIBs.

    “The CF of LIBs depends not only on the source of battery materials and the location where battery manufacturing takes place, but also on the battery chemistry, as different types of materials and energy densities affect the material demand to produce LIBs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The key battery-manufacturing Chinese province of Sichuan has a carbon intensity of 0.2 kg CO2-eq kWh-1 for its electricity, which is comparable to Portugal, and Germany has a higher carbon intensity than the Yunnan province (0.37 vs 0.14 kg CO2-eq kWh-1).

    “the key battery-manufacturing Chinese province of Sichuan has a carbon intensity of 0.2 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 for its electricity, which is comparable to Portugal, and Germany has a higher carbon intensity than the Yunnan province (0.37 vs 0.14 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 ) (Li et al., 2017).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Li et al., 2017

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  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Transport has been found to contribute around 5% to the overall carbon footprint of LIBs, therefore not expected to lead to significant differences across scenarios.

    “The latter has been found to contribute around 5% to the overall CF of LIBs (Linder et al., 2023), therefore not expected to lead to significant differences across scenarios.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Linder et al., 2023

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  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The material demand is based on the study of Winjobi et al. (2020), which includes bills-of-materials for a wide range of battery chemistries which are inherently consistent, calculated based on the BatPac tool for all chemistries (Ahmed et al., 2016).

    “the sole reliance on the study of Winjobi et al. (2020) is that it includes bills-of-materials for a wide range of battery chemistries which are inherently consistent, i.e. they are calculated based on the BatPac tool for all chemistries (Ahmed et al., 2016).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Winjobi et al. (2020)

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    • cites Ahmed et al., 2016

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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Key cathode materials used in LFP battery manufacturing, FeSO4 and H3PO4, come with significantly lower CFs and are included here for completeness based on data from GREET and Ecoinvent.

    “Key cathode materials used in LFP battery manufacturing, FeSO 4 and H 3 PO 4 , come with significantly lower CFs and are included here for completeness based on data from GREET and Ecoinvent.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites GREET

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    • cites Ecoinvent

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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Sulphide ore is mined in locations with lower carbon intensity energy, such as Canada and Russia, in contrast with Indonesia, New Caledonia and the Philippines being the dominant laterite mining countries, heavily relying on coal.

    “sulphide ore is mined in locations with lower carbon intensity energy, such as Canada and Russia, in contrast with Indonesia, New Caledonia and the Philippines being the dominant laterite mining countries, heavily relying on coal.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Graphite mining and surface modification are the main energy demand drivers for natural graphite, while the graphitization stage is the main energy requirement in the production of synthetic graphite.

    “Graphite mining and surface modification are the main energy demand drivers for natural graphite, while the graphitization stage is the main energy requirement in the production of synthetic graphite.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The notably lower values for LFP are attributed to the fact that LFP cathode precursor manufacturing requires significantly lower amounts of materials, while key cathode materials FeSO4 and H3PO4 come with significantly lower CFs.

    “The notably lower values for LFP are attributed to the fact that LFP cathode precursor manufacturing requires significantly lower amounts of materials (Fig. 1), while key cathode materials FeSO 4 and H 3 PO 4 , come with significantly lower CFs (Fig. 2).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Nickel laterites need to either be smelted completely or be hydrometallurgically processed resulting in increased process complexity and energy intensity.

    “Specifically, nickel laterites need to either be smelted completely or be hydrometallurgically processed resulting in increased process complexity and energy intensity (Schmidt et al., 2016).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Schmidt et al., 2016 source

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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Graphite has been reported as a 'hidden impact' in battery manufacturing due to the underestimation of its CF in commercial LCA databases.

    “graphite has been reported as a “hidden impact” in battery manufacturing due to the underestimation of its CF in commercial LCA databases (Whattoff et al., 2021).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Whattoff et al., 2021

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    Premisecitation

    Recent LCAs for natural and synthetic graphite reported values of 9.6 and 20.6 kg CO2-eq kg-1, respectively, which are much higher than earlier-reported numbers.

    “Recent LCAs for natural and synthetic graphite reported values of 9.6 (Engels et al., 2022) and 20.6 (Surovtseva et al., 2022) kg CO 2 -eq kg -1 , respectively, which are much higher than earlier-reported numbers.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Engels et al., 2022 source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Surovtseva et al., 2022

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Cobalt is mainly mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which is further processed to CoSO4 in China.

    “Cobalt is mainly mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which is further processed to CoSO 4 in China.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Aluminium sulphate is extensively utilised in NCA precursor production, quantified as primary Al demand herein, known to come with significant geographical variations, with production in China associated with a carbon intensity three-times higher than that of Europe.

    “Aluminium sulphate is extensively utilised in NCA precursor production, quantified as primary Al demand herein, known to come with significant geographical variations, with production in China associated with a carbon intensity three-times higher than that of Europe.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Cobalt mining in the DRC heavily relies on hydroelectric power, resulting in a low carbon intensity, with the carbon emissions of cobalt being traced to the refining step, usually performed in China.

    “Cobalt mining in the DRC heavily relies on hydroelectric power, resulting in a low carbon intensity, with the carbon emissions of cobalt being traced to the refining step, usually performed in China.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The projection in Fig. 6 should be seen as a worst-case scenario, as it extrapolates today's technologies to 2035, not accounting for further improvements in battery manufacturing and LIB technology.

    “In addition, Fig. 6 should be seen as a worst-case scenario, as it extrapolates today's technologies to 2035, not accounting for further improvements in battery manufacturing and LIB technology.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The results should be seen as indicative rather than definitive, given the large set of assumptions.

    “Given that performing a study with such a broad scope comes with a large set of assumptions, our results should be seen as indicative rather than definitive”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The European Commission will require CF disclosures for any battery placed on the market from 2024.

    “the European Commission will require CF disclosures for any battery placed on the market from 2024 (Peiseler et al., 2022).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Peiseler et al., 2022 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Chordia et al. (2021) reported a cradle-to-gate CF of 104 kg CO2-eq kWh-1 for an NMC811 battery produced in South Korea, which falls towards the upper whisker values reported in Fig. 5.

    “Chordia et al. (2021) reported a cradle-to-gate CF of 104 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 for an NMC811 battery produced in South Korea, which falls towards the upper whisker values reported in Fig. 5.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Chordia et al., 2021 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Certain locations might decarbonise at a much faster pace, which would result in a lower carbon intensity of battery manufacturing as shown in Fig. 4.

    “It is also acknowledged that certain locations might decarbonise at a much faster pace, which would result in a lower carbon intensity of battery manufacturing as shown in Fig. 4.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    It is even harder to trace the origin of key battery materials, which are a determinant factor to the overall environmental impact of a battery.

    “In addition, it is even harder to trace the origin of key battery materials, which are a determinant factor to the overall environmental impact of a battery.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    A recent study found that Gigafactory energy consumption could be reduced up to 66% by 2040 by switching to post-LIB chemistries and improving production technologies, which would have an important effect on the CF.

    “A recent study found that Gigafactory energy consumption could be reduced up to 66% by 2040 by switching to post-LIB chemistries and improving production technologies, which would have an important effect on the CF (Degen et al., 2023).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Degen et al., 2023 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Kelly et al. (2020) tried to tackle such issue by building hypothetical scenarios on specific supply chains without defining a specific manufacturer for each battery cell.

    “Kelly et al. (2020) tried to tackle such issue by building hypothetical scenarios on specific supply chains without defining a specific manufacturer for each battery cell.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Kelly et al., 2020 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Dai et al. (2019) reported a 72.9 kg CO2-eq kWh-1 for an NMC111 battery produced in the United States, falling within the lower whisker values reported for North America in Fig. 5.

    “Dai et al. (2019) reported a 72.9 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 for an NMC111 battery produced in the United States, falling within the lower whisker values reported for North America in Fig. 5.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Dai et al., 2019 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The probability to utilise some material supply routes might be higher compared to others.

    “However, the probability to utilise some material supply routes might be higher compared to others.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Significantly higher CF values reported by Kallitsis et al. (2020) and Ellingsen et al. (2014), than the range of 46.3-106.1 kg CO2-eq kWh-1 reported here for South Korea, have been traced to the fact that they refer to pilot-scale facilities rather than Giga-scale factories considered herein, with the former resulting in almost three-times higher energy demand for cell manufacturing.

    “Significantly higher CF values reported by Kallitsis et al. (2020) and Ellingsen et al. (2014), than the range of 46.3-106.1 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 reported here for South Korea, have been traced to the fact that they refer to pilot-scale facilities rather than Giga-scale factories considered herein, with the former resulting in almost three-times higher energy demand for cell manufacturing (Kallitsis”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Kallitsis et al., 2020 source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Ellingsen et al., 2014 source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Kallitsis, 2022

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The issues highlighted uncover a significant omission in current battery LCA studies in the literature hindering our ability to perform accurate assessments, with high relevance to the EU battery regulation.

    “The issues highlighted above uncover a significant omission in current battery LCA studies in the literature hindering our ability to perform accurate assessments, with high relevance to the EU battery regulation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationnone given

    Defining only the chemistry and geometry of a battery cell, without discussing manufacturer-specific information does not allow to trace the specifics of the battery cell manufacturing location.

    “Defining only the chemistry and geometry of a battery cell, without discussing manufacturer-specific information does not allow to trace the specifics of the battery cell manufacturing location.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    278 million personal and commercial vehicles were registered in the US in 2021.

    “278 million personal and commercial vehicles were registered in the US in 2021 (Tilford and Megna, 2023).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Tilford and Megna, 2023

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Allocating a specific market share for Li chemicals for spodumene versus brine pathways would not be correct under the current literature landscape, as most data for spodumene-based routes present estimations based on secondary data.

    “allocating a specific market share for Li chemicals for spodumene versus brine pathways would not be correct under the current literature landscape, as most data for spodumene-based routes present estimations based on secondary data (Chordia et al., 2022).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Chordia et al., 2022 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Balancing authorities span several states in the US or provinces in China and some Gigafactories might be exclusively powered by renewable energy, which would change the location-specific emission profile.

    “Practically, balancing authorities span several states in the US or provinces in China and some Gigafactories might be exclusively powered by renewable energy, which would change the location-specific emission profile.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
56 of 56

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The gate-to-gate energy demand range of 40-80 kWh/kWh cell is representative for all battery chemistries.

    “This range of values is assumed to be representative for all battery chemistries, as there is currently no specific trend regarding the comparative energy consumption of competing chemistries, as highlighted by Bouter and Guichet (2022).”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    All energy requirement can be represented as electricity values, although it includes heating and cooling.

    “All energy requirement is represented as electricity values, although it includes heating and cooling.This is an accepted assumption across literature studies but might slightly underestimate the CF (Jinasena et al., 2021).”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Material contributions to the carbon footprint of LIB manufacturing in each location remain unchanged; the variation in the carbon emissions of each key LIB material is independent of where battery manufacturing takes place.

    “Material contributions to the CF of LIB manufacturing in each location were assumed to remain unchanged.In other words, it is assumed that the variation in the carbon emissions of each key LIB material is independent of where battery manufacturing takes place.This assumption is backed by the fact that materials supply chains are globally distributed.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The CF of material production varies according to a uniform distribution.

    “Such analysis is performed under the assumption that the CF of material production varies according to a uniform distribution.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    All planned battery manufacturing capacity will materialise.

    “Such projection assumes that all planned battery manufacturing capacity will materialise.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The range of CF values reported herein is representative of all battery chemistries.

    “assuming that the range of CF values reported herein is representative of all battery chemistries.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    A Gigafactory positioned at a specific location will source electricity from the local grid.

    “assuming that a Gigafactory positioned at a specific location will source electricity from the local grid.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    A staged approach is assumed to reach 10 TWh battery manufacturing capacity in 2035.

    “assuming a staged approach to reach 10 TWh battery manufacturing capacity in 2035.”
8 of 8

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Using generic and highly aggregated LCI obscure the range of climate change impacts of LIB cells.

    “However, using generic and highly aggregated LCI obscure the range of climate change impacts of LIB cells.97”

    From Current and Future Impacts of Lithium Carbonate from Brines: A Global Regionalized Life Cycle Assessment Model (2025) · cites this paper as [97]

  • The production of battery materials and subsequent LIB cell manufacturing contribute considerably to greenhouse gas emissions.

    “the production of battery materials4–7 and the subsequent LIB cell manufacturing8–10 contribute considerably to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions”

    From Carbon footprint distributions of lithium-ion batteries and their materials (2024) · cites this paper as [6]

  • The materials' impact and induced variance on battery carbon footprint have not yet been quantified.

    “While initial research has begun to aggregate the CF data points of individual battery materials into a battery-level analysis6,24, the materials’ impact and induced variance on battery CF have not yet been quantified.”

    From Carbon footprint distributions of lithium-ion batteries and their materials (2024) · cites this paper as [6]

  • Battery material carbon footprint distributions are not systematically integrated into battery carbon footprint analyses.

    “Second, battery material CF distributions are not systematically integrated into battery CF analyses.”

    From Carbon footprint distributions of lithium-ion batteries and their materials (2024) · cites this paper as [6]

  • Both types of graphite are produced in China, where the electricity mix has an emissions intensity of 0.95 kg CO2-equiv kWh−1, varying substantially across graphite hubs-from 0.68 in Gansu to 1.14 in Anhui.

    “Moreover, both types of graphite are produced in China (Table 1), where the electricity mix has an emissions intensity of 0.95 kg CO2-equiv kWh 1 , varying substantially across graphite hubs-from 0.68 kg CO2-equiv kWh 1 in Gansu province to 1.14 kg CO2-equiv kWh 1 in Anhui.”

    From Decarbonizing lithium-ion battery primary raw materials supply chain (2024) · cites this paper as [45]

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Car-production emissions comparison overstates the car count

    Minor

    At 5 t CO 2-eq per car, the stated upper bound of 1.0 Gt corresponds to 0.2 billion, or 200 million, cars-not 220 million. Producing 220 million cars at that rate would emit 1.1 Gt.

    Reported 220 · recomputed 0.2

  • Conclusion omits reported median footprints below 60

    Minor

    The conclusion gives 60 kg CO 2-eq kWh -1 as the lower end of the median range, but the results report medians as low as 48.9 in North America and 50.4 in Europe.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. 2021, vol. 283

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Kallitsis, E., Lindsay, J. J., Chordia, M., Wu, B., Offer, G. J., & Edge, J. S.
Affiliations
  • The Faraday Institution (GB)
  • Chalmers University of Technology (SE)
Corresponding author
Kallitsis, Evangelos
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Cleaner Production
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2024-04
Volume
449
Pages
141725
ISSN
0959-6526 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141725
OpenAlex
W4392630758
Cited by
83
References
40
Citations by year
2026: 39 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 12
FWCI
9.75
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of Cleaner Production (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Research Square (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
  • Chalmers Research (Chalmers University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
Funders
The Faraday Institution
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanical Engineering › Extraction and Separation Processes
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Photovoltaic Systems and Sustainability
Keywords
lithium-ion batteries, carbon footprint, production site, battery materials, cradle-to-gate emissions, battery value chain, low-carbon transportation, CO2 emissions projections, Chinese provinces, North America, Europe

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-10.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-10.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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