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Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal
Open accessAbstract
The accumulation of mismanaged plastic waste (MPW) in the environment is a global growing concern. Knowing with precision where litter is generated is important to target priority areas for the implementation of mitigation policies. In this study, using country-level data on waste management combined with high-resolution distributions and long-term projections of population and the gross domestic product (GDP), we present projections of global MPW generation at ~1 km resolution from now to 2060. We estimated between 60 and 99 million metric tonnes (Mt) of MPW were produced globally in 2015. In a business-as-usual scenario, this figure could triple to 155–265 Mt y −1 by 2060. The future MPW load will continue to be disproportionately high in African and Asian continents even in the future years. However, we show that this growth in plastic waste can be reduced if developing economies significantly invest in waste management infrastructures as their GDP grows in the future and if efforts are made internationally to reduce the fraction of plastic in municipal solid waste. Using our projections, we also demonstrate that the majority of MPW (91%) are transported via watersheds larger than 100 km 2 suggesting that rivers are major pathways for plastic litter to the ocean.
Overview
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This study projects global mismanaged plastic waste (MPW) at ~1 km resolution from 2015 to 2060 using country waste-management data with gridded population and GDP. It estimates 60–99 Mt of MPW in 2015, with business-as-usual growth to 155–265 Mt y⁻¹ by 2060 unless waste management improves and plastic demand is reduced.
Key findings
- Global MPW in 2015 was estimated at 60–99 Mt (midpoint 80 Mt), about 47% of global annual municipal plastic waste generation (midpoint 181 Mt for n = 188 countries).
- Under business-as-usual scenario A, MPW could nearly triple to 213 (155–265) Mt y⁻¹ by 2060; under scenario B, with waste management improving as GDP grows, global MPW could peak before 2020 and fall to 50 (22–94) Mt y⁻¹ by 2060; under scenario C, capping plastic in municipal solid waste at 10% by 2020 and 5% by 2040 plus scenario B improvements, MPW could fall below 25 Mt y⁻¹ before 2060, with 74% generated in Africa and 21% in Asia.
- 91% of MPW was generated inside watersheds larger than 100 km², suggesting rivers are major pathways to the ocean; 5% was discarded directly near the coastline (<10 km²) and 4% at 10–100 km², with over a quarter in 14 continental rivers.
- In 2015, Asia released 52 (42–58) Mt of MPW, 65% of the global total; Africa had the highest unsound disposal rate at 88.5%, producing 17 (10–20) Mt. Top countries were China (17.2 Mt y⁻¹), India (14.4 Mt y⁻¹), and the Philippines (4.52 Mt y⁻¹); Manila was the largest urban centre at 0.81 Mt y⁻¹.
Methods
- Country-level Waste Atlas data on per capita municipal solid waste generation, mismanaged fraction, and plastic fraction were combined with 30 × 30 arc-second (~1 km) Landscan 2014 population density and UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Geneva GDP distributions; future projections used UN, IMF, and OECD population and GDP projections to 2060.
- Empirical relationships estimated missing values: per capita MSW generation vs per capita GDP (a = 11.434, b = 0.3433, n = 160), mismanaged fraction vs per capita GDP (e = −3.13 × 10⁻³, f = 104, n = 95), and a global average plastic fraction of 10.9% ± 4.5% (n = 105).
- Three scenarios were modeled: A, business-as-usual waste management; B, mismanaged fraction declining with GDP growth; C, scenario B plus plastic fraction capped at 10% by 2020 and 5% by 2040. Watershed analysis used HydroSHEDS boundaries.
Limitations
- The paper states that waste data were reported at national level and may vary within countries; confidence intervals include uncertainties in per capita MSW generation, plastic proportion, and mismanaged fraction. Projections neglect subnational population redistribution, plastic waste exports/imports, exceptional economic or societal events, and changes in technology, product design, or behavior.
- The paper also notes that population density was assumed to grow at the same rate as the national average, which may bias projections, and that rural exodus could further reinforce urban waste production.
- Evident from the text: the Waste Atlas data are non-exhaustive (n = 160 for MSW generation, n = 95 for unsound disposal, n = 105 for plastic proportion), and the model assumes per capita solid waste generation scales with GDP within a country and that relative spatial distributions remain constant over time.
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Claims the paper makes
35 Not checked yet · 32 Own result · 26 Own interpretation · 26 No basis given · 10 Own method
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The proportion of plastic in municipal solid waste for countries provided by Waste-Atlas was homogeneously distributed when compared against per capita GDP with an average value of 10.9% and standard deviation of 4.5% (n = 105).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Consumer demand for plastics and per capita GDP relation.
plainn = 105- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“However, per capita GDP and the proportion of plastic in municipal solid waste did not demonstrate a statistically significant relationship.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Consumer demand for plastics and per capita GDP relation.
plainn = 105- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“However, the proportion of produced waste that was inadequately disposed varied across regions (Waste Atlas, 2016).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Waste Atlas, 2016
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Many countries with a high GDP per capita had a reported mismanaged fraction of 0%.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Model formulation.
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In the paper
“Where a = 11.434(lower: 11.218, upper: 11.953) and b = 0.3433 (lower: 0.3565, upper: 0.3298), best fit parameters for n = 160 countries”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Model formulation.
plaincorrelationaln = 160- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Based on self-reported levels of inadequate disposal, we estimated between 60 and 99 (mid-point: 80) million metric tonnes (Mt) of municipal plastic waste were inadequately disposed globally into the environment during 2015 (Fig. 2).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgedn = 188- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: The proportion of plastic in solid waste (p) is the same for all unmanaged waste including litter.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A similar overestimation was found using the World Bank dataset with which the same method resulted in 212 Mt of global plastic waste for 2015.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Model formulation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“A figure higher than the predicted amount derived from production data, assuming conservatively that 50% of plastic production goes to packaging and household items (i.e., ~50% of 380 Mt in 2015 is 190 Mt).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Model formulation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Our global estimated municipal plastic waste generation of 181 Mt for 2015 is closer to predictions from production data and confirms our assumptions.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Model formulation.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Per capita solid waste generation scales with GDP inside a country.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The quantity represents about 47% of the global annual municipal plastic waste generation (mid-point estimate of 181 Mt for n = 188 countries).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plainn = 188- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“when integrating national plastic waste generation at global scale, the total was estimated to range between 212 and 229 Mt y -1 for 2015.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Model formulation.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Our projections show some countries, particularly in Africa, that may not reach this transition before 2060.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
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In the paper
“The generation of waste from the Asian continent was distributed between Southern, Eastern and South-East Asia with respectively 18.4, 17.4 and 11.7 Mt y -1 of annual MPW generation.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Five of the top 10 countries for mismanaged plastic waste identified by this model include only 5 of the top ten countries identified by Jambeck et al. ( 2015) for 2010.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jambeck et al. (2015) source
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In the paper
“Over a quarter of the global waste was discarded into the watersheds of only 14 continental rivers (>1,000,000 km 2 , namely the Mississippi, the Nelson, the St Lawrence, the Amazon, the Paraná, the Congo, the Niger, the Nile, the Zambezi, the Volga, the Lena, the Amur, the Yangtze and the Ganges rivers).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
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In the paper
“The future MPW load will continue to be disproportionately high in African and Asian continents even in the future years.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“According to scenario A, cities like Manila, Cairo, Kolkata or New Delhi would reach the 1 Mt y -1 mark for annual MPW generation before 2060.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario A, the mismanaged fraction reported by Waste Atlas (2016) is maintained into future years.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A scenario where China and India reduce the fraction of mismanaged waste to 50% by respectively 2020 and 2030, and to the current western standard by 2035 and 2050, along with other countries in similar economic transition, shows that we could reach peak generation of MPW at global scale in the next decade.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Here we present for the first time, spatial distributions of mismanaged municipal plastic waste generation at an order of 1 km resolution, worldwide from now to 2060.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Our model shows how the main contribution to global MPW production would then shift from Asia to Africa.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
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In the paper
“Except for Tanzania, all ten were identified in the top 20 countries in this previous work.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Our results highlight the urgency of the situation and the necessity of an international law-abiding agreement between countries on the management of plastic waste as we could be generating twice the current amount of MPW per year, globally, by mid-century if the situation remains unchanged.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
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In the paper
“In a scenario where the plastic fraction in municipal solid waste is capped to 10% by 2020 and to 5% by 2040, the release of plastic into the environment could be efficiently reduced to a third of the current level, assuming significant improvement are also made in terms of waste management to compensate for population growth.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
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In the paper
“Under this condition, we predicted a total of 20.5 Mt of MPW for coastal population in 2010.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Following the study, this quantity may be converted to an annual global input into sea of 5.1 (3.1-8.2) Mt.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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“Midpoint plastic demand by end-users in Asia was projected to steadily increase from 99 Mt y -1 in 2020 to 151 Mt y -1 in 2040 and 193 Mt in 2060.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“This result shows that the majority (91%) of MPW was generated inside larger watersheds (>100 km 2 ) and suggests that rivers may be a major vector of transport of plastic waste from land into the ocean.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Our projections suggested that African demand by consumers for plastic will increase exponentially in the future decades from 23 Mt y -1 of municipal plastic waste in”
- Also stated in: § Global plastic waste generation. · plain
“2010 to 72 Mt y -1 in 2060.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Also stated in: § Global plastic waste generation. · plain
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In the paper
“This is an important aspect as we also show that most of the produced MPW each year is located inside larger watersheds characterised by a river and several confluents.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Inputs from China with 17.2 Mt y -1 , and India with 14.4 Mt y -1 dominated the waste generation figures for Asia.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
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“The demand for plastic by end-users in Africa was projected higher than in Northern America or Europe by 2035.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“If no efforts are made in waste management, generation of MPW in Asia could double from 52 (42-58) Mt y -1 in 2020 to 129 (104-150) Mt y -1 in 2060.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario A, the mismanaged fraction reported by Waste Atlas (2016) is maintained into future years.
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In the paper
“These two countries provide over a third of the global MPW generation.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Using our projections, we also demonstrate that the majority of MPW (91%) are transported via watersheds larger than 100 km 2”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Waste generation in small watersheds in arid or mountainous unpopulated regions is very small and can be neglected from inland inputs.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“China and India currently contribute to above a third of the global MPW generation, with GDP growth rate projected above 4% until mid-2020s and early 2040 s respectively (OECD, 2014).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
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“Under this scenario, by 2060, 8 out of the 10 generating country will be an African country with Nigeria (3.08-6.46Mt y -1 ), Congo (2.22-6.33Mt y -1 ), Tanzania (1.16-6.42Mt y -1 ), Ethiopia (1.01-4.10Mt y -1 ), Niger (0.88-2.69 Mt y -1 ), Sudan (0.38-2.00 Mt y -1 ), Mozambique (0.82-1.64 Mt y -1 ) and Mali (0.47-1.78 Mt y -1 ).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
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In the paper
“Following a growing demand of plastic by end-users, the MPW generation in scenario A would nearly triple from the present value of 80 (60-99) Mt y -1 to 213 (155-265) Mt y -1 by 2060.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario A, the mismanaged fraction reported by Waste Atlas (2016) is maintained into future years.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Sao Paolo in Brazil was ranked fourth with 0.47 Mt y -1 .”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“We found no significant relation between fraction of plastic in solid waste and per capita GDP.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The confidence interval for our projections naturally increase as we progress in the future.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
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In the paper
“This suggests that the proportion of plastic in solid waste is generally independent of the per capita GDP of a country.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Consumer demand for plastics and per capita GDP relation.
hedgedn = 105- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The former generally scales with the local gross domestic product (GDP) (Hoornweg et al., 2013)”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hoornweg et al., 2013 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“by 2025 the global urban population is estimated to generate > 6 Mt of solid waste daily (Hoornweg et al. 2013).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hoornweg et al. 2013 source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Coastal communities in those regions will place a disproportionate plastic waste burden on the environment and especially the ocean.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Even using the present fraction of ~10% plastics in the solid waste stream, this amounts to over 200 Mt of waste plastics”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The unfair practice of importing waste, especially e-waste, from developed nations, is to a large part responsible for this problem in Africa for example (Schmidt, 2006).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Schmidt, 2006 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We explain these results by a bias in estimating solid waste generation in rural areas.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Model formulation.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Waste management data is mainly reported for urban centres and levels of per capita use may not be representative of rural areas.
In the paper
“with the more affluent countries using as much as over 100 kg/pp/ year (Waste Atlas, 2016).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Waste Atlas, 2016
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“however only about 9.4% of plastics (E.P.A., 2016) is presently recycled in the US”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites E.P.A., 2016
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The statistically significant correlations between per capita municipal solid waste generation, mismanaged fraction and per capita GDP allow us to predict these quantities when they are not reported by Waste Atlas”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Consumer demand for plastics and per capita GDP relation.
plaincorrelationaln = 160- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This result shows that the majority (91%) of MPW was generated inside larger watersheds (>100 km 2 ) and suggests that rivers may be a major vector of transport of plastic waste from land into the ocean.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Under a business-as-usual scenario, it is fair to expect that consumer demand for plastic will dramatically increase in these countries.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Predicted accumulation of plastic waste on land can be distributed into watersheds (Lebreton et al., 2017).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Lebreton et al., 2017 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“suggesting that rivers are major pathways for plastic litter to the ocean.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“This increase is also in good agreement with municipal solid waste generation projections which are not expected to peak within this century (Hoornweg et al., 2013).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hoornweg et al., 2013 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The finer granularity of the present model allows us to predict local scale accumulation.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Considering populations living within a fixed distance from the coastline may not always be representative of land-based sources to the ocean as plastic waste generated inland can be transported by rivers.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Considering global average proportion of plastic in municipal solid waste (10.9%, lower: 8.3%, upper: 13.2%), a daily input of 6 Mt of solid waste may represent around 239 (182-290) Mt of annual generation of municipal plastic waste.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, our results also suggest that gradual increase in waste management infrastructure may not be enough for some parts of the world.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result, despite GDP growth, the per capita GDP remains sufficiently low for our model to consider a large portion of produced waste to be likely mismanaged.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“But more importantly, it shows that GDP-fuelled demand for plastics by end-users is not sustainable at global scale and support the necessity to introduce quotas in plastic use.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The analysis of our results may not only be constrained to political boundaries as in this study, we show how considering physical boundaries may help in understanding the generation of plastic waste in watersheds and indirectly sources of plastic to the ocean (Lebreton et al., 2017;Schmidt et al., 2017).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
What the sources say
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: unclear — It is unclear whether it could be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In this case, the decrease of global MPW generation would mainly be driven by the rapid economic development in Asia.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario B, waste management efforts improve with increased investment in infrastructure as economies grow.
In the paper
“This is in good agreement with previous projections of solid waste generation (Hoornweg et al., 2013) with daily estimates above 6 Mt in 2025.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hoornweg et al., 2013 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The calculations of these confidence intervals include the uncertainties related to per capita municipal solid waste generation, proportion of plastic in waste and proportion of waste that is mismanaged.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“But those locations of high solar irradiance and high ambient temperatures might be qualitatively expected to promote faster weathering and fragmentation of exposed plastics waste.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The significance of these hotspots is therefore magnified because of the increased propensity to generate micro-plastics at a faster rate.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 35
- Probably not a substantial claim. 31
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Africa, however, had the highest rate of unsound waste disposal with an average of 88.5% resulting in a total of 17 (10-20) Mt of unsoundly disposed plastic waste despite the low levels of resin production.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The correlation was expectedly positive for waste generation reflecting the higher consumption levels in rich country and negative for the mismanaged fraction showing a greater amount of waste unsoundly disposed for developing countries (Fig. 1).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Consumer demand for plastics and per capita GDP relation.
plaincorrelationaln = 160- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Latin America (including the Caribbean) and Africa each produced 19 Mt of plastic waste while Oceania generated about 0.9 Mt.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both per capita municipal solid waste generation and mismanaged fraction showed a statistically significant correlation with per capita GDP.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Consumer demand for plastics and per capita GDP relation.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“With an average of 63% of inadequately disposed waste for 2015, Asia released 52 (42-58) Mt of plastic waste into the environment, representing 65% of the global MPW generation.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Hosting 60% of the global population (United Nations, 2015), the Asian continent was in 2015 the leading generating region of plastic waste with 82 Mt, followed by Europe (31 Mt) and Northern America (29 Mt).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites United Nations, 2015
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Latin America and the Caribbean were the third generating region with 7.9 (6.7-8.3)Mt, followed by Europe with 3.3 (1.3-9.1)Mt, Northern America with 0.3 (0.03-3.0)Mt, and Oceania with 0.14 (0.05-0.32)Mt.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Some strong economies for example reported large fractions such as The Netherlands, largest reported figure for a developed economy with 19% of plastic in municipal solid waste.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The consumer demand for plastic in Africa was projected to grow by 375% from the current demand by 2060, the highest growth for a continent, the global average being 210%.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The Philippines were the third generating country with 4.52 Mt y -1 but Manila, its capital, was predicted as the largest urban centre for the generation of MPW with at least 0.81 Mt y -1 for the agglomeration”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We found that the continent could reduce MPW generation below 30 Mt y -1 by 2040 and below 10 Mt y -1 by 2060.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario B, waste management efforts improve with increased investment in infrastructure as economies grow.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“From our global distribution of mismanaged plastic waste for 2015, we estimated that 5% of waste was discarded directly near the coastline (watershed surface area < 10 km 2 ) and 4% at proximity to the coastline (10 to 100 km 2 ).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Manila, the largest contributor predicted by our model, was followed by Cairo and Kolkata with 0.53 and 0.48 Mt y -1 .”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This scenario would mean reducing mismanaged waste below 10% of total generated waste by around 2030 for current major contributors such as China, Thailand, Indonesia or Turkey, and around 2060 for countries like India, the Philippines, or”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario B, waste management efforts improve with increased investment in infrastructure as economies grow.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By 2020, under a business-as usual-scenario for plastic consumption, our predictive model suggested the world will produce above 200 Mt of municipal plastic waste annually and around 230 Mt by 2025.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, if we assume a gradual improvement of waste management infrastructures with scenario B, we estimated that global MPW generation could peak before 2020 and decrease to 50 (22-94) Mt y -1 by 2060.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario B, waste management efforts improve with increased investment in infrastructure as economies grow.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The rest of the top 10 cities were in Asia with Bangkok (0.45 Mt y -1 ), New Delhi (0.41 Mt y -1 ), Shanghai (0.5 Mt y -1 ), Kuala Lumpur (0.29 Mt y -1 ), Beijing (0.28 Mt y -1 ) and Guangzhou (0.27 Mt y -1 ).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“MPW generation could be reduced to a third of current value with annual average generation below 25 Mt y -1 before 2060 including 74% generated in Africa and 21% in Asia.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Under a scenario where countries would align to reduce fraction of plastic in municipal waste to below 5%, the global plastic waste generation would drop to around 140 Mt per year by 2040 but increase again to 2015 levels with nearly 180 Mt per year in 2060 as global population grows.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“India would become the largest MPW generating country by 2035 and would reach 46.3 (38.6-52.0)Mt y -1 by 2060, followed by China with 33.3 (28.1-36.8)Mt y -1 and the Philippines with 11.6 (10.1-12.4)Mt y -1 .”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario A, the mismanaged fraction reported by Waste Atlas (2016) is maintained into future years.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Based on long term projections of population and GDP per countries, we estimated the global municipal plastic waste generation could reach 300 Mt annually by 2040 and 380 Mt by 2060.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: For future projections, the relative spatial distribution of population and GDP within countries remains the same over time; possible migration and sub-national variations are neglected.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This data was reported at national level.However, values may vary inside countries.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“By year 2050 plastics manufacturing and processing may account for as much as 20% of petroleum consumed globally and 15% of the annual carbon emissions budget (World Economic Forum, 2016).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites World Economic Forum, 2016
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An important trend is the increased migration into urban areas that in general would tend to exacerbate the developing hot-spots.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Packaging-related plastics have a particularly short in-use phase and therefore dominate municipal plastic waste and subsequently the mismanaged waste as well.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Jambeck et al. (2015) used a minimum threshold of 2% of mismanaged waste.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Model formulation.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jambeck et al. (2015) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Over 660 species (Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2012), ranging from seabirds, fish, bivalves to the zooplanktons at the bottom of the marine food chain, are known to be affected by plastic debris”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2012
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“to reach the present global annual production of 330 million metric tonnes (Mt) for 2016 (Plastics Europe, 2017).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Plastics Europe, 2017
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“now ubiquitous in soil (Rillig, 2012), rivers and lakes (Lebreton et al., 2017) as well as in the oceans (Barnes et al., 2009).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
What the sources say
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“consumer packaging that accounts for 42% of the global annual resin production (Geyer et al., 2017).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Geyer et al., 2017 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“concluded that the fraction of this waste that is reaching the oceans represented 4.8 to 12.7 Mt of plastics in 2010 from populations living within 50 km from the coastline.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jambeck et al., 2015 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“while the global population is predicted to increase to over 9.5 billion in 2025 over 97% of this growth will be in Asia and Africa (United Nations, 2015).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites United Nations, 2015
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Including the resin used in spinning textile fibres (Lenzing Group, 2016), this figure is closer to 393 Mt”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Lenzing Group, 2016
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since e is negative, a growth in per capita GDP (Xc) from t 0 to t results in the decrease of mismanaged fraction”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Model formulation.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: As the economy grows, waste management infrastructure improves.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, as a significant degree of uncertainty is associated with this value, we considered using an upper and lower threshold by varying orders of magnitude from 0.1 to 10% minimum mismanaged waste.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Model formulation.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“building applications that accounts for about 20% of global production (Plastics Europe, 2017).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Plastics Europe, 2017
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“A first global estimate of plastic inputs from land to the sea for 2010 (Jambeck et al., 2015) proposed to consider municipal plastic waste generation for population living within 50 km from the coastline and assumed 25% (15-40%) of plastic waste from this population enters the ocean.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jambeck et al., 2015 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“A combination of solar UV radiation and high sample temperatures are well known to control the rates of degradation and therefore the fragmentation of MPW into micro-particles (Abdelhafidia et al., 2015).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Abdelhafidia et al., 2015 source
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“China and India currently contribute to above a third of the global MPW generation, with GDP growth rate projected above 4% until mid-2020s and early 2040 s respectively (OECD, 2014).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites OECD, 2014
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This exponential increase in demand for plastics by the end-user is fuelled by GDP growth but also by a substantial increase of population.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Africa's demographic is expected to reach 2.9 billion by 2060 (United Nations, 2015) representing a population growth of 245% from 2015, much higher than any other continents (global average: 138%).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites United Nations, 2015
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The magnitude and timing of plastic waste displacement on land is poorly known (Horton et al., 2017) and may be a function of topography, land use, climate, vegetation and, particle shape and size (e.g., microplastics may be more easily transported than larger, more complexly shaped debris).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Horton et al., 2017 source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“These smaller fragments are generated by weathering degradation of plastic debris in the outdoor environment, especially beaches, followed by mechanical action of wind and waves fragmenting the degraded plastics (Andrady, 2017).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Andrady, 2017 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Through runoff, winds, and gravity, plastic debris slowly makes its way downhill and enters the sea from coastal environments (Jambeck et al., 2015) and through rivers (Lebreton et al., 2017).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“According to the World Bank (Hoornweg and Bhada-Tata, 2012), 70 and 85% of municipal waste is currently mismanaged in China and India, respectively.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hoornweg and Bhada-Tata, 2012
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However, recent research specifically points to ecological impacts of meso-plastics, micro-plastics and nano-plastics in the ocean environment (Avio et al., 2017).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Avio et al., 2017 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Fragmentation of common plastics into micro-and nano-sized particles has been demonstrated in laboratory (Wohlleben and Neubauer, 2016;Kalogerakis et al., 2017).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
What the sources say
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The fraction of plastic waste entering the ocean may vary between locations, however.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, we show that this growth in plastic waste can be reduced if developing economies significantly invest in waste management infrastructures as their GDP grows in the future and if efforts are made internationally to reduce the fraction of plastic in municipal solid waste.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Abstract
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario B, waste management efforts improve with increased investment in infrastructure as economies grow.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario C, the same assumptions as scenario B hold and the fraction of plastic in solid waste is capped to 10% by 2020 and 5% by 2040.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, at least a part of this discrepancy might be due to differences in methodology adopted in previous and present studies.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This approach naturally yields uncertainties which are also included in the calculation of our confidence interval.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is important to note that some uncertainties are associated to our estimates.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Such index would foster international cooperation and assist countries and municipalities in setting objectives to reduce plastic waste releases into natural environments.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Also, our projections do not consider plastic waste exports or imports for reprocessing: in 2012, for instance, 15 Mt was traded, mainly between Europe and China.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Similarly, our model cannot account for future exceptional economic, societal or financial events.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As local information is unavailable, we proposed a model to consider sub-national variations of plastic consumption.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“To reflect these, we introduced lower and upper ranges along our mid-point projections.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This assumption may introduce a bias in our projections.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Population density grows at the same rate as the national average.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Advances in technology, consumer product design, and behaviour patterns may change the per capita GDP-consumption relationship as well as conversion rates of waste to MPW.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is difficult to accurately quantify the rates of potential micro-plastics generation at a given location as the fraction of MPW exposed to solar radiation cannot be easily assessed.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Better reporting of waste management practices could lead to the development of a national plastic waste emission, similarly to the creation of carbon emission index by climate scientists (Le Quéré et al., 2018).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Le Quéré et al., 2018
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Considering the already developed hotspots, those in African continent will experience both high downward solar UV flux as well as high ambient temperatures followed by those in India and East Asia.”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The authors state this as an assumption.
The proportion of plastic in solid waste (p) is the same for all unmanaged waste including litter.
“Value of p is assumed to be the same for all unmanaged waste including litter.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Per capita solid waste generation scales with GDP inside a country.
“An important model assumption here, is that per capita solid waste generation scales with GDP inside a country.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
For future projections, the relative spatial distribution of population and GDP within countries remains the same over time; possible migration and sub-national variations are neglected.
“we neglected the possible migration of population or variations in domestic product inside countries for our future projections as we considered the relative distribution to remain the same over time.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In scenario A, the mismanaged fraction reported by Waste Atlas (2016) is maintained into future years.
“For scenario A, we considered the case of business-as-usual where the mismanaged fraction reported by Waste Atlas (2016) were maintained into the future years”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In scenario B, waste management efforts improve with increased investment in infrastructure as economies grow.
“In scenario B, we assumed waste management efforts will improve with increased investment in infrastructure as the economies in individual countries grow in the future.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In scenario C, the same assumptions as scenario B hold and the fraction of plastic in solid waste is capped to 10% by 2020 and 5% by 2040.
“Finally, in scenario C, we used the same assumption as in scenario B and further reduced the input of individual countries by capping the fraction p of plastic in solid waste to 10% by 2020 and to 5% by 2040.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
As the economy grows, waste management infrastructure improves.
“i.e., as the economy grows, waste management infrastructure improves”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Waste management data is mainly reported for urban centres and levels of per capita use may not be representative of rural areas.
“Waste management data is mainly reported for urban centres and we trust that levels of per capita use may not be representative of rural areas.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Waste generation in small watersheds in arid or mountainous unpopulated regions is very small and can be neglected from inland inputs.
“As the waste generation in these areas is very small since they are generally unpopulated, we neglected the contribution of these regions from inland inputs.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Population density grows at the same rate as the national average.
“population density was assumed to grow at the same rate as the national average.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Lebreton and Andrady [50] estimated that 60 million to 99 million tonnes of plastic waste, representing 47% of global annual municipal plastic waste generation, was mismanaged in 2015.”
From Bottled Water: An Evidence-Based Overview of Economic Viability, Environmental Impact, and Social Equity (2023) · cites this paper as [50]
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Post-consumer plastic waste is predicted to reach 230 million tonnes a year globally by 2025 [50].”
From Bottled Water: An Evidence-Based Overview of Economic Viability, Environmental Impact, and Social Equity (2023) · cites this paper as [50]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Model formulation.
“lower: 0.3565”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Model formulation.
“upper: 0.3298”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
“The quantity represents about 47% of the global annual municipal plastic waste generation (mid-point estimate of 181 Mt for n = 188 countries).”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
Reported 47 · recomputed 44.198895
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
“Manila, the largest contributor predicted by our model, was followed by Cairo and Kolkata with 0.53 and 0.48 Mt y -1 .Sao Paolo in Brazil was ranked fourth with 0.47 Mt y -1 .”
§ Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal > Global plastic waste generation.
“Shanghai (0.5 Mt y -1 )”
Citations
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Predicted growth in plastic waste exceeds efforts to mitigate plastic pollution
Borrelle, S. B., Ringma, J., Law, K. L., Monnahan, C. C., Lebreton, L., McGivern, A., Murphy, E., Jambeck, J., Leonard, G. H., Hilleary, M. A., et al. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aba3656 · Cited by 3,219
Self-citationEvaluating scenarios toward zero plastic pollution
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Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Lebreton, L., & Andrady, A.
- Affiliations
- The Ocean Cleanup (NL)
- North Carolina State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lebreton, Laurent
- Venue
- Palgrave Communications
- Published
- 2019-01-29
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 2055-1045 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2914665624
- Semantic Scholar
- b34bc94db2f023fd501247eeb8f8a44f39731fd7
- Cited by
- 2,327
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 233 · 2025: 379 · 2024: 434 · 2023: 451 · 2022: 380 · 2021: 289 · 2020: 137 · 2019: 22
- FWCI
- 62.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Geological Survey
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Pollution › Microplastics and Plastic Pollution
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Waste Management and Disposal › Municipal Solid Waste Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Waste Management and Disposal › Waste Management and Recycling
- Keywords
- plastic waste, mismanaged plastic waste, waste management infrastructure, population growth, gross domestic product, municipal solid waste, plastic pollution, developing countries, Africa, Asia
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-08, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-08 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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