Predicting spatial patterns of fire on a southern California landscape
Abstract
Humans influence the frequency and spatial pattern of fire and contribute to altered fire regimes, but fuel loading is often the only factor considered when planning management activities to reduce fire hazard. Understanding both the human and biophysical landscape characteristics that explain how fire patterns vary should help to identify where fire is most likely to threaten values at risk. We used human and biophysical explanatory variables to model and map the spatial patterns of both fire ignitions and fire frequency in the Santa Monica Mountains, a human-dominated southern California landscape. Most fires in the study area are caused by humans, and our results showed that fire ignition patterns were strongly influenced by human variables. In particular, ignitions were most likely to occur close to roads, trails, and housing development but were also related to vegetation type. In contrast, biophysical variables related to climate and terrain (January temperature, transformed aspect, elevation, and slope) explained most of the variation in fire frequency. Although most ignitions occur close to human infrastructure, fires were more likely to spread when located farther from urban development. How far fires spread was ultimately related to biophysical variables, and the largest fires in southern California occurred as a function of wind speed, topography, and vegetation type. Overlaying predictive maps of fire ignitions and fire frequency may be useful for identifying high-risk areas that can be targeted for fire management actions.
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The significant influence of distance to public campsites in our model highlights that even low levels of human activity can have a measurable effect on the likelihood of fires in wilderness areas.
“Additionally, the significant influence of distance to public campsites in our model highlights that even low levels of human activity (as may be the case in many public lands) can have a measurable effect on the likelihood of fires in wilderness areas [64].”
From Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California (2016) · cites this paper as [64]
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- Authors
- Syphard, A. D., Radeloff, V. C., Keuler, N. S., Taylor, R. S., Hawbaker, T. J., Stewart, S. I., & Clayton, M. K.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- National Park Service (US)
- US Forest Service (US)
- Corresponding author
- Syphard, Alexandra D.
- Venue
- International Journal of Wildland Fire
- Publisher
- CSIRO Publishing
- Published
- 2008-10-03
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 602-613
- ISSN
- 1049-8001 (ISSN-L)
- 1448-5516
- OpenAlex
- W2075785519
- Cited by
- 288
- References
- 57
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 18 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 20 · 2017: 20 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 16 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 18
- FWCI
- 11.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Journal of Wildland Fire (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Geological Survey
- National Park Service
- Pacific Northwest Research Station
- Northern Research Station
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality › Fire dynamics and safety research
- Keywords
- fire frequency, human-caused fires, fire spread, fire hazard, Santa Monica Mountains, human infrastructure, roads and trails, housing development, vegetation types, topography, wind speed, climate, fire management planning, high-risk areas, Southern California
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