Precipitation extremes over the continental United States in a transient, high‐resolution, ensemble climate model experiment

Singh, Deepti; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

doi:10.1002/jgrd.50543

Cited by 137Climate variability and modelsHydrology and Drought AnalysisMeteorological Phenomena and Simulations

Precipitation extremes over the continental United States in a transient, high‐resolution, ensemble climate model experiment

Singh, Deepti, Tsiang, Michael, Rajaratnam, Bala, Diffenbaugh, Noah S.·2013·Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

DOI 10.1002/jgrd.50543

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Abstract

Understanding future changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events in response to increased greenhouse gas forcing is important for formulating adaptation and mitigation strategies that minimize damages to natural and human systems. We quantify transient changes in daily‐scale seasonal extreme precipitation events over the U.S. using a five‐member ensemble of nested, high‐resolution climate model simulations covering the 21st century in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find a strong drying trend in annual and seasonal precipitation over the Southwest in autumn, winter, and spring and over the central U.S. in summer. These changes are accompanied by statistically significant increases in dry‐day frequency and dry‐spell lengths. Our results also show substantial increases in the frequency of extreme wet events over the northwestern U.S. in autumn, winter, and spring and the eastern U.S. in spring and summer. In addition, the average precipitation intensity increases relative to the extreme precipitation intensity in all seasons and most regions, with the exception of the Southeast. Further, most regions receive a greater fraction of total seasonal precipitation from extreme events. These results imply fewer but heavier precipitation events in the future, leading to more frequent wet and dry extremes in most regions of the U.S. Our simulations suggest that many of these changes are likely to become statistically significant by the mid‐21st century. Given current vulnerabilities, such changes in extreme precipitation could be expected to increase stress on water resources in many areas of the U.S., including during the near‐term decades.

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A weakening of orographic rain shadows related to changes in precipitation extremes has previously been noted in simulations of climate warming over North America.
“A weakening of orographic rain shadows related to changes in precipitation extremes has previously been noted in simulations of climate warming over North America [22, 75].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [75]

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Giorgi, F., & Gutowski, W. J. (2015) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-102014-021217 · Cited by 794 · see citing works
A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events
Horton, R., Mankin, J., Lesk, C. S., Coffel, E., & Raymond, C. (2016) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0042-x · Cited by 539 · see citing works
Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments
Wilcox, K. R., Shi, Z., Gherardi, L., Lemoine, N. P., Koerner, S. E., Hoover, D. L., Bork, E. W., Byrne, K. M., Cahill, J. F., Collins, S. L., et al. (2017) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13706 · Cited by 353 · see citing works
Characterizing differences in precipitation regimes of extreme wet and dry years: implications for climate change experiments
Knapp, A. K., Hoover, D. L., Wilcox, K. R., Avolio, M. L., Koerner, S. E., Pierre, K. J. L., Loik, M. E., Luo, Y., Sala, O. E., & Smith, M. D. (2015) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12888 · Cited by 341 · see citing works
“An increase in the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes is one of the most consistent changes forecast by global climate models (Smith, 2011a; IPCC, 2013; Singh et al., 2013; Fischer et al., 2013).”
Background
North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends
Grotjahn, R., Black, R. X., Leung, L.-Y. R., Wehner, M. F., Barlow, M. A., Bosilovich, M. G., Gershunov, A., Gutowski, W. J., Gyakum, J. R., Katz, R. W., et al. (2015) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2638-6 · Cited by 341 · see citing works
Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages
Davenport, F. V., Burke, M., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2017524118 · Cited by 308 · see citing works
Self-citation
Sensitivity of primary production to precipitation across the United States
Maurer, G. E., Hallmark, A. J., Brown, R. F., Sala, O. E., & Collins, S. L. (2020) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.13455 · Cited by 227 · see citing works
“Climate is becoming increasingly variable, resulting in more frequent, longer droughts and more extreme precipitation events (Fischer et al. 2013; Singh et al. 2013), and models predict that these trends will continue into the future (Diffenbaugh et al.”
Background
Five Decades of Observed Daily Precipitation Reveal Longer and More Variable Drought Events Across Much of the Western United States
Zhang, F., Biederman, J. A., Dannenberg, M. P., Yan, D., Reed, S. C., & Smith, W. K. (2021) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl092293 · Cited by 211 · see citing works
“In particular, our findings quantify where and in what ways the temporal variability of precipitation has already changed in accordance with general expectations of increasing aridity arising from increased moisture divergence and poleward displacement of the mid-latitude jet under warming (Dannenberg & Wise, 2017; Gr…”
Result
Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: recommendations for simulating wet and dry years
Knapp, A. K., Avolio, M. L., Beier, C., Carroll, C. J. W., Collins, S. L., Dukes, J. S., Fraser, L. H., Griffin‐Nolan, R. J., Hoover, D. L., Jentsch, A., et al. (2016) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13504 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
“+1 970 4917010, fax +1 970 4910649, e-mail: aknapp@colostate.edu 1© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and an increase in extreme wet and dry years (Seneviratne et al., 2012; Fischer et al., 2013; IPCC, 2013; Singh et al., 2013).”
Background
Response of soil microbial communities to altered precipitation: A global synthesis
Zhou, Z., Wang, C., & Luo, Y. (2018) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.12761 · Cited by 180 · see citing works
Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States
Touma, D., Stevenson, S. L., Swain, D. L., Singh, D., Kalashnikov, D. A., & Huang, X. (2022) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abm0320 · Cited by 172 · see citing works
Self-citation
Seasonal not annual rainfall determines grassland biomass response to carbon dioxide
Hovenden, M. J., Newton, P. C. D., & Wills, K. E. (2014) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature13281 · Cited by 171 · see citing works
Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies
Kim, I., Oh, J., Woo, S., & Kripalani, R. H. (2018) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4193-4 · Cited by 141 · see citing works
“To define daily precipitation extremes, we used the percentile approach (Diffenbaugh et al. 2005; Malik et al. 2012; Kopparla et al. 2013; Singh et al. 2013).”
Method
North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends
Barlow, M. A., Gutowski, W. J., Gyakum, J. R., Katz, R. W., Lim, Y., Schumacher, R. S., Wehner, M. F., Agel, L., Bosilovich, M. G., Collow, A. B. M., et al. (2019) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04958-z · Cited by 144 · see citing works
Multiple causes of wind erosion in the Dust Bowl
Lee, J. A., & Gill, T. E. (2015) · Aeolian Research · doi:10.1016/j.aeolia.2015.09.002 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States
Naz, B. S., Kao, S., Ashfaq, M., Gao, H., Rastogi, D., & Gangrade, S. (2017) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.11.027 · Cited by 127 · see citing works
Projected changes in snowfall extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western <scp>U</scp> nited <scp>S</scp> tates
Lute, A. C., Abatzoglou, J. T., & Hegewisch, K. C. (2015) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1002/2014wr016267 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
“…studies support the conclusion that this will result in an increase in heavy precipitation events at the expense of light and moderate precipitation events, albeit with distinct geographic variability [e.g., Karl and Knight, 1998; Meehl et al., 2005; Giorgi et al., 2011; Singh et al., 2013].”
Background
Plant communities mediate the interactive effects of invasion and drought on soil microbial communities
Fahey, C., Koyama, A., Antunes, P. M., Dunfield, K. E., & Flory, S. L. (2020) · The ISME Journal · doi:10.1038/s41396-020-0614-6 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations
Akinsanola, A. A., Kooperman, G. J., Reed, K. A., Pendergrass, A. G., & Hannah, W. M. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abb397 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
The response of soil respiration to precipitation change is asymmetric and differs between grasslands and forests
Du, Y., Wang, Y., Su, F., Jiang, J., Wang, C., Yu, M., & Yan, J. (2020) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15270 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments
Diffenbaugh, N. S., Singh, D., & Mankin, J. S. (2018) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aao3354 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Self-citation
Competition-interaction landscapes for the joint response of forests to climate change
Clark, J. S., Bell, D. M., Kwit, M. C., & Zhu, K. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12425 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
“Precipitation will arrive in fewer, more intense events (Trapp et al., 2007, Giorgi et al., 2011, Singh et al., 2013), a pattern already evident in the Southeast.”
Background
Enhanced precipitation variability effects on water losses and ecosystem functioning: differential response of arid and mesic regions
Sala, O. E., Gherardi, L., & Peters, D. P. C. (2015) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1389-z · Cited by 95 · see citing works
“2007; Field 2012) because of the increase in greenhouse gas concentration, as predicted by models (Singh et al. 2013) and as already observed in several regions around the world (Easterling et al.”
Background
Evaluation of extreme precipitation indices over West Africa in CMIP6 models
Faye, A., & Akinsanola, A. A. (2021) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05942-2 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
“These set of extreme precipitation indices listed in Table 2 are derived from daily precipitation and have been widely used for detection, attribution, and projection of changes in climate extremes (e.g. Donat et al. 2013; Sillmann et al. 2013; Singh et al. 2013; Akinsanola et al. 2020).”
Method
Compound hydroclimatic extremes in a semi‐arid grassland: Drought, deluge, and the carbon cycle
Hoover, D. L., Hajek, O. L., Smith, M. D., Wilkins, K., Slette, I. J., & Knapp, A. K. (2022) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16081 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
“Larger precipitation events or “deluges,” more frequent anomalous wet and dry years, and increases in the severity of droughts are expected to become the “new normal” for many ecosystems (Donat et al., 2016; Fischer et al., 2013; IPCC, 2013; Singh et al., 2013; Wang et al., 2017).”
Background
Spatial and temporal variations of precipitation concentration and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulations across Northeast China
Wang, R., Zhang, J., Guo, E., Zhao, C., & Cao, T. (2019) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.02.008 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Seasonal representation of extreme precipitation indices over the United States in CMIP6 present-day simulations
Akinsanola, A. A., Kooperman, G. J., Pendergrass, A. G., Hannah, W. M., & Reed, K. A. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab92c1 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
“These indices are derived from daily rainfall and have been widely used in previous studies for detection, attribution, and projection of changes in climate extremes (Dulière et al 2011, Donat et al 2013; Sillmann et al 2013a, Singh et al 2013).”
BackgroundMethod
The role of anthropogenic aerosols in future precipitation extremes over the Asian Monsoon Region
Zhao, A., Stevenson, D. S., & Bollasina, M. A. (2018) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4514-7 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Water and nitrogen uptake are better associated with resource availability than root biomass
Kulmatiski, A., Adler, P. B., Stark, J. M., & Tredennick, A. T. (2017) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1002/ecs2.1738 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Responses of a desert nematode community to changes in water availability
Vandegehuchte, M. L., Sylvain, Z. A., Reichmann, L. G., de Tomasel, C. M., Nielsen, U. N., Wall, D. H., & Sala, O. E. (2015) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es14-00319.1 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
“…United States (IPCC 2007), the southwestern states are predicted to become drier within the next century (Seager et al. 2007), with an increase in the duration and intensity of droughts and number of dry days and a decrease in the occurrence of wet extremes (Cayan et al. 2010, Singh et al. 2013).”
Background
Quantifying the Effect of Precipitation on Landslide Hazard in Urbanized and Non‐Urbanized Areas
Bush, A. E., Davenport, F. V., Wang, L., Caers, J., Muthukrishnan, S., Burke, M., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2021) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2021gl094038 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
“This shift toward heavier precipitation events (Davenport et al., 2021; Singh et al., 2013) may decrease slope stability Abstract Although most landslides are precipitation-triggered, a number of other complex conditions simultaneously predispose any given slope to failure, with the impact of urbanization posing parti…”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Concentration of daily precipitation in the contiguous United States
Royé, D., & Vide, J. M. (2017) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.06.011 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050
Batıbeniz, F., Ashfaq, M., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Key, K. B., Evans, K. J., Turunçoğlu, U. U., & Önol, B. (2020) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2019ef001421 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
“Earlier studies focus primarily on a particular type of extreme, such as heatwaves, extreme precipitation events, droughts and floods (Diffenbaugh & Ashfaq, 2010; Singh et al., 2013; Wehner et al., 2011; Wobus et al., 2017).”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Historical Analysis of Hydraulic Bridge Collapses in the Continental United States
Flint, M. M., Fringer, O. B., Billington, S. L., Freyberg, D. L., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2017) · Journal of Infrastructure Systems · doi:10.1061/(asce)is.1943-555x.0000354 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Self-citation
Changes in Extreme Climate Events in China Under 1.5 °C–4 °C Global Warming Targets: Projections Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations
Jia, W., Han, Z., Xu, Y., Zhou, B., & Gao, X. (2020) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2019jd031057 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Exploring a Variable‐Resolution Approach for Simulating Regional Climate in the Rocky Mountain Region Using the VR‐CESM
Wu, C., Liu, X., Lin, Z., Rhoades, A. M., Ullrich, P. A., Zarzycki, C. M., Lu, Z., & Rahimi, S. (2017) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2017jd027008 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Precipitation response to climate change and urban development over the continental United States
Georgescu, M., Broadbent, A. M., Wang, M., Krayenhoff, E. S., & Moustaoui, M. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abd8ac · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Characterizing the Spatial Scales of Extreme Daily Precipitation in the United States
Touma, D., Michalak, A. M., Swain, D. L., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2018) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-18-0019.1 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Self-citation
A Framework for Mechanistic Flood Inundation Forecasting at the Metropolitan Scale
Schubert, J. E., Luke, A., AghaKouchak, A., & Sanders, B. F. (2022) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2021wr031279 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
“, 2018), increased precipitation extremes (Huang et al., 2020; Lenderink & Van Meijgaard, 2008; Singh et al., 2013), and sea level rise (Bilskie et al.”
Background
Local adaptation in an estuarine foundation species: Implications for restoration
Bible, J. M., & Sanford, E. (2015) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2015.11.015 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Altered rainfall patterns increase forb abundance and richness in native tallgrass prairie
Jones, S. K., Collins, S. L., Blair, J. M., Smith, M. D., & Knapp, A. K. (2016) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep20120 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Assessment of GPM-Era Satellite Products’ (IMERG and GSMaP) Ability to Detect Precipitation Extremes over Mountainous Country Nepal
Nepal, B., Shrestha, D., Sharma, S., Shrestha, M. S., Aryal, D., & Shrestha, N. (2021) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos12020254 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Rainfall Concentration Using the Gini Index and PCI
Sangüesa, C., Pizarro, R., Ibañez, A., Pino, J., Rivera, D. A., García-Chevesich, P. A., & Ingram, B. (2018) · Water · doi:10.3390/w10020112 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
“Understanding future changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events is important when formulating adaptation and mitigation strategies that minimize damage to natural and human systems [3].”
Background
Grass invasion and drought interact to alter the diversity and structure of native plant communities
Fahey, C., Angelini, C., & Flory, S. L. (2018) · Ecology · doi:10.1002/ecy.2536 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Historical climate legacies on soil respiration persist despite extreme changes in rainfall
Hawkes, C. V., Shinada, M., & Kivlin, S. N. (2020) · Soil Biology and Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2020.107752 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Assessment of future changes in intensity-duration-frequency curves for Southern Ontario using North American (NA)-CORDEX models with nonstationary methods
Ganguli, P., & Coulibaly, P. (2019) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.12.007 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Dominant Trees in a Subtropical Forest Respond to Drought Mainly via Adjusting Tissue Soluble Sugar and Proline Content
Kuang, Y., Xu, Y., Zhang, L., Hou, E., & Shen, W. (2017) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2017.00802 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
“…responses between the trees should be taken into consideration in the development of some models, e.g., global impact models (Fischer et al., 2013; Singh et al., 2013), forest ecosystem water-use efficiency processbased model (Huang et al., 2016), assessing the forest responses to seasonal…”
Background
Transcriptomic responses to extreme low salinity among locally adapted populations of Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida)
Maynard, A., Bible, J. M., Pespeni, M. H., Sanford, E., & Evans, T. G. (2018) · Molecular Ecology · doi:10.1111/mec.14863 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Phenology-based seasonal terrestrial vegetation growth response to climate variability with consideration of cumulative effect and biological carryover
Yuan, Y., Bao, A., Jiapaer, G., Jiang, L., & Maeyer, P. D. (2022) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152805 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Estimating the Response of Extreme Precipitation over Midlatitude Mountains to Global Warming
Shi, X., & Durran, D. R. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00750.1 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
The Changing Character of Twenty-First-Century Precipitation over the Western United States in the Variable-Resolution CESM
Huang, X., & Ullrich, P. A. (2017) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0673.1 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
“1999) that are featured in earlier studies (Diffenbaugh et al. 2005; Dulière et al. 2011; Sillmann et al. 2013b; Singh et al. 2013) and others such as return levels and dry spell and wet spell characteristics defined by either percentiles or by selected thresholds.”
BackgroundInfluential
Sensitivity of a shark nursery habitat to a changing climate
Crear, D. P., Latour, R. J., Friedrichs, M. A. M., St‐Laurent, P., & Weng, K. C. (2020) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps13483 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling Over the Great Plains
Hu, X., Xue, M., McPherson, R. A., Martin, E. R., Rosendahl, D. H., & Qiao, L. (2018) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1002/2017ms001154 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
“Better projections of future, regional precipitation can help natural resource managers mitigate and adapt to these adverse impacts (Garc ıaValdecasas Ojeda et al., 2017; Singh et al., 2013; Soares et al., 2012).”
Background
Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling
Qin, P., & Xie, Z. (2016) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2016jd024776 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
“…have high resolution are often adopted to study local climate and extreme events forced by GCMs [Bao et al., 2015; Burger et al., 2013; Gao et al., 2002; Knutson et al., 2013; Pielke and Wilby, 2012; Shi et al., 2009; Singh et al., 2013; Tang et al., 2016; Zhai et al., 2005; Zou and Zhou, 2013].”
Background
Asymmetric responses of terrestrial C:N:P stoichiometry to precipitation change
Sun, Y., Wang, C., Chen, H. Y. H., Luo, X., Qiu, N., & Ruan, H. (2021) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.13343 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Contribution of the main moisture sources to precipitation during extreme peak precipitation months
Nieto, R., Ciric, D., Vázquez, M., Liberato, M. L. R., & Gimeno, L. (2019) · Advances in Water Resources · doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103385 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Increased Fall Precipitation in the Southeastern United States Driven by Higher‐Intensity, Frontal Precipitation
Bishop, D. A., Williams, P., & Seager, R. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl083177 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
“The intensity and frequency of precipitation events increased across much of the contiguous United States during the 20th century, and these increases are projected to continue throughout the 21st century (Carter et al., 2018; DeGaetano, 2009; Easterling et al., 2017; Kunkel, 2003; Kunkel et al., 2003; Kunkel, Karl, e…”
BackgroundInfluential
On the Development and Demise of the Fall 2019 Southeast U.S. Flash Drought: Links to an Extreme Positive IOD
Schubert, S. D., Chang, Y., DeAngelis, A. M., Wang, H., & Koster, R. D. (2020) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0428.1 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Investigation of precipitation concentration and trends and their potential drivers in the major river basins of Central Asia
Yang, P., Zhang, Y., Xia, J., & Sun, S. (2020) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105128 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Contrasting responses of two C4 desert shrubs to drought but consistent decoupling of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance at high temperature
Feng, X., Liu, R., Li, C., Zhang, H., & Slot, M. (2023) · Environmental and Experimental Botany · doi:10.1016/j.envexpbot.2023.105295 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
“At the same time, rainfall patterns are changing, increasing the frequency and intensity of soil droughts in many areas (Singh et al., 2013; Knapp et al., 2015).”
Background
The response of productivity and its sensitivity to changes in precipitation: A meta‐analysis of field manipulation experiments
Zhang, J., Li, J., Xiao, R., Zhang, J., Wang, D., Miao, R., Song, H., Liu, Y., Yang, Z., & Liu, M. (2020) · Journal of Vegetation Science · doi:10.1111/jvs.12954 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Integrated River and Coastal Hydrodynamic Flood Risk Mapping of the LaHave River Estuary and Town of Bridgewater, Nova Scotia, Canada
Webster, T., McGuigan, K., Collins, K., & MacDonald, C. (2014) · Water · doi:10.3390/w6030517 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
“Singh et al [55] also predict an increase in precipitation amounts and frequency in coastal areas of the Northeastern United States, and Toreti et al.”
Background
Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas
Awal, R., Bayabil, H. K., & Fares, A. (2016) · Water · doi:10.3390/w8120603 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
“[45] reported negative anomalies of total annual precipitation in the Southwestern USA.”
BackgroundInfluential
Spatiotemporal analysis of extreme precipitation events in the United States at mesoscale: Complex network theory
Jamali, T., Ghanbarian, B., & Kurths, J. (2023) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130440 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Characteristic Analysis of Droughts and Waterlogging Events for Maize Based on a New Comprehensive Index through Coupling of Multisource Data in Midwestern Jilin Province, China
Wang, R., Zhang, J., Wang, C., & Guo, E. (2019) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs12010060 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
“Since the 21st century, some scholars have shown the high percentages of annual total precipitation were concentrated mainly on a limited number of very rainy days, as result of the heightening of the global water cycle and rainfall intensity [67,68].”
Background
Rainfall variability from a dense rain gauge network in north-western Italy
Baronetti, A., Acquaotta, F., & Fratianni, S. (2018) · Climate Research · doi:10.3354/cr01517 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
“Furthermore, several studies have shown an increase in extreme events in the Mediterranean area in the last few years (Singh et al. 2013, Knapp et al. 2017), and these events have mainly been related to an increase in rainfall events, an extension of dry periods, and an increment in extreme wet and…”
Background
Extreme rainfall trends over the Mekong Delta under the impacts of climate change
Kyu, L. S., & Dang, T. A. (2020) · International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management · doi:10.1108/ijccsm-04-2020-0032 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
“Singh et al. (2013) conducted a study on changing trends in extreme seasonal rainfall events over continental America.”
Background
Declines in rodent abundance and diversity track regional climate variability in North American drylands
Cárdenas, P. A., Christensen, E. M., Ernest, S. K. M., Lightfoot, D. C., Schooley, R. L., Stapp, P., & Rudgers, J. A. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15672 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“unpredictability in climate Climate sensitivity functions yield predictions on how species will respond to amplified variance in climate (Rudgers et al., 2018), an element of climate change projected to increase for most regions (Cook et al., 2019; IPCC, 2013; Singh et al., 2013).”
Background
Hydrological changes in the U.S. Northeast using the Connecticut River Basin as a case study: Part 1. Modeling and analysis of the past
Parr, D. T., & Wang, G. (2014) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.009 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Changes in Extreme Precipitation: A Case Study in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in China
Pei, F., Wu, C., Qu, A., Xia, Y., Wang, K., & Zhou, Y. (2017) · Water · doi:10.3390/w9120943 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
“[16] quantified the transient changes in seasonal extreme precipitation events at the daily scale over the continental United States.”
Background
Summer Mean and Extreme Precipitation Over the Mid‐Atlantic Region: Climatological Characteristics and Contributions From Different Precipitation Types
Li, J., Qian, Y., Leung, L.-Y. R., & Feng, Z. (2021) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2021jd035045 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Changes in precipitation patterns in Houston, Texas
Statkewicz, M. D., Talbot, R. W., & Rappenglück, B. (2021) · Environmental Advances · doi:10.1016/j.envadv.2021.100073 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Spatial coherence of extreme precipitation events in the Northwestern United States
Parker, L. E., & Abatzoglou, J. T. (2015) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4504 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
“While typically considered problematic, extreme precipitation events contribute significantly to annual precipitation amounts (e.g. Singh et al., 2013) and are important in shaping interannual variability in precipitation (Dettinger, 2013; Lute and Abatzoglou, 2014).”
Background
Tracing Extremes across Iconic Desert Landscapes: Socio-Ecological and Cultural Responses to Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and Wildflower Superblooms
Winkler, D. E., & Brooks, E. (2020) · Human Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10745-020-00145-5 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Placing the east-west North American aridity gradient in a multi-century context
Bishop, D. A., Williams, P., Seager, R., Cook, E. R., Peteet, D. M., Cook, B. I., Rao, M. P., & Stahle, D. W. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f63 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
“Global climate change is projected to exacerbate drought severity and extent (Cook et al 2020) and increase precipitation extremes through the 21st century (Singh et al 2013).”
Background
Determining the impact of anthropogenic activities and climate change on landslide susceptibility for the Himalayan region
Tyagi, A., Gupta, N., Tiwari, R. K., James, N., & Chavan, S. R. (2024) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-024-07011-3 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“With the changing climate, the change in rainfall pattern (Singh et al. 2013; Davenport et al. 2021) can reduce the stability of slopes by altering drainage path, infiltration rate, and hydraulic conductivity for slope (Iverson 2000; Crozier 2010; Gorsevski 2023).”
Projecting Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation Over Eastern China During 2041–2060
Dong, G., Jiang, Z., Tian, Z., Buonomo, E., Sun, L., & Fan, D. (2020) · Earth and Space Science · doi:10.1029/2019ea001024 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Effect of increased greenhouse gas concentration on mean, extreme, and timing of precipitation over Arizona ( USA )
Georgescu, M., Broadbent, A. M., & Balling, R. C. (2021) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.7444 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“These results provide confidence in the model's ability to represent a spectrum of spatial and temporal precipitation features and therefore may be used to project potential changes in precipitation associated with continued emissions of longlived GHGs.”
BackgroundResultInfluential
How will predicted land‐use change affect waterfowl spring stopover ecology? Inferences from an individual‐based model
Beatty, W. S., Kesler, D. C., Webb, E. B., Naylor, L. W., Raedeke, A. H., Humburg, D. D., Coluccy, J. M., & Soulliere, G. J. (2016) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2664.12788 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“For example, increasing levels of hydrological drought have been predicted for much of the contiguous USA across all three scenarios examined in this study (Strzepek et al. 2010; Singh et al. 2013).”
Background
Drivers of regional soil water storage memory and persistence
Jacobs, E. M., Bertassello, L., & Rao, P. S. C. (2020) · Vadose Zone Journal · doi:10.1002/vzj2.20050 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
A Flood Risk Assessment of the LaHave River Watershed, Canada Using GIS Techniques and an Unstructured Grid Combined River-Coastal Hydrodynamic Model
McGuigan, K., Webster, T., & Collins, K. (2015) · Journal of Marine Science and Engineering · doi:10.3390/jmse3031093 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
The roles of bias-correction and resolution in regional climate simulations of summer extremes
PaiMazumder, D., & Done, J. (2014) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2413-0 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
“This agrees with Singh et al. (2013) who found NARCCAP ensemble was unable to accurately capture spatial patterns of extreme precipitation in the western region.”
BackgroundResult
Legacies in Switchgrass Resistance to and Recovery from Drought Suggest That Good Years Can Sustain Plants Through Bad Years
Hawkes, C. V., & Kiniry, J. (2017) · BioEnergy Research · doi:10.1007/s12155-017-9879-7 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Simulated seawater flooding reduces oilseed rape growth, yield and progeny performance
Hanley, M. E., Hartley, F. C., Hayes, L., & Franco, M. (2019) · Annals of Botany · doi:10.1093/aob/mcz026 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Reservoir Reliability as Affected by Climate Change and Strategies for Adaptation
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“These effects include the expected increase in the frequency and duration of both wet and dry extreme events [17], alteration in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and flow routing [18], all affecting the attainment of multiple reservoir objectives [19].”
Background
Regional Variation of Transient Precipitation and Rainless-day Frequency Across a Subcontinental Hydroclimate Gradient
Bishop, D. A., & Pederson, N. (2015) · Journal of Extreme Events · doi:10.1142/s2345737615500074 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
“Such a combination may lead to alternating hydroclimatic extremes (Singh et al. 2013), which can challenge the resiliency of ecosystems.”
BackgroundInfluential
Variability of water supply affected shoot biomass and root depth distribution of four temperate grassland species in monocultures and mixtures
Haughey, E., McElwain, J. C., & Finn, J. A. (2020) · Journal of Plant Ecology · doi:10.1093/jpe/rtaa044 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Effects of 0.5 °C less global warming on climate extremes in the contiguous United States
Chen, L., & Ford, T. W. (2021) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05717-9 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Investigating Temporal and Spatial Precipitation Patterns in the Southern Mid-Atlantic United States
Dollan, I. J., Maggioni, V., & Johnston, J. (2022) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.799055 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
“%) considering the historical record (1901–2014) over the northeast U.S.”
Influential
Influence of Changing Patterns of Precipitation and Temperature on Tropical Soil Ecosystem
Afreen, T., Singh, H., & Singh, J. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-13-8249-9_2 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Early growth interactions between a mangrove and an herbaceous salt marsh species are not affected by elevated CO2 or drought
Howard, R. J., Stagg, C. L., & Utomo, H. S. (2018) · Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science · doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2018.03.026 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Comparative establishment and yield of bioenergy sorghum and maize following pre‐emergence waterlogging
von Haden, A. C., Burnham, M. B., Yang, W. H., & DeLucia, E. H. (2021) · Agronomy Journal · doi:10.1002/agj2.20832 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Characterisation and Assessment of a Flash Flood in the Himalaya: Understanding the Significance of High Magnitude Events in Sediment Mobilisation
Sarkar, A., & Singh, V. (2022) · Journal of the Geological Society of India · doi:10.1007/s12594-022-2044-8 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
“Attempts have been made to statistically analyze the extreme events with respect to the global climate change (Smith 2011; Singh et al. 2013; Fischer et al. 2013).”
Background
Assessment of NARCCAP model in simulating rainfall extremes using a spatially constrained regionalization method
Gao, P., Carbone, G. J., & Guo, D. (2015) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4500 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
“The regions that Singh et al. (2013) used were subjectively determined and the Bukovsky regions were not specifically driven by extreme precipitation.”
Background
Improving the Seasonal Forecast of Summer Precipitation in Southeastern China Using a CycleGAN-based Deep Learning Bias Correction Method
Yang, S., Ling, F., Luo, J., & Bai, L. (2024) · Advances in Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1007/s00376-024-4003-3 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Spatial patterns of extreme precipitation and their changes under ~ 2 °C global warming: a large-ensemble study of the western USA
Rupp, D. E., Hawkins, L., Li, S., Koszuta, M., & Siler, N. (2022) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06214-3 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“Overall, studies show an apparent influence of mountains on the spatial pattern of changes in extreme precipitation over the western US (Singh et al. 2013; Prein et al. 2017; Huang et al. 2020; Mahoney et al. 2021).”
Background
Mid-Western US heavy summer-precipitation in regional and global climate models: the impact on model skill and consensus through an analogue lens
Gao, X., & Schlosser, C. A. (2018) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4209-0 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“Previous studies also reported the projected reduction in the summer daily maximum precipitation rate or the frequency of summer wet extremes in the Midwestern US in the mid- or late- twenty-first century (Wehner 2013; Singh et al. 2013).”
Background
Soil respiration and its determinants under simulated precipitation in a desert steppe
Cui, Y., Hou, D., Wang, Z., Wang, J., Qu, Z., Wang, Y., Han, G., Li, Z., Ren, H., & Wang, H. (2023) · Journal of Soils and Sediments · doi:10.1007/s11368-023-03703-8 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“Global warming has intensified hydrological processes (IPCC 2021), resulting in the increasing frequency of extreme drought and heavy rainfall events (Smith 2011; Singh et al. 2013).”
Connecting local‐scale heavy precipitation to large‐scale meteorological patterns over Portland, Oregon
Aragon, C. M., Loikith, P. C., McCullar, N., & Mandilag, A. M. (2020) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.6487 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“Several approaches have been demonstrated as effective ways to make progress towards addressing the scale mismatch challenge, with dynamical (Singh et al., 2013) and statistical (Jiang et al., 2018) downscaling providing some added value over coarser resolution global climate models at capturing…”
Background

Intensification of precipitation extremes in the United States under global warming
Akinsanola, A. A., & Kooperman, G. J. (2022) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-88456-3.00010-1 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations
Akinsanola, A. A., Kooperman, G. J., Reed, K. A., Pendergrass, A. G., & Hannah, W. M. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abb397 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Seasonal variability of future extreme precipitation and associated trends across the Contiguous U.S.
Dollan, I. J., Maggioni, V., Johnston, J., Coelho, G. D. A., & Kinter, J. L. (2022) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2022.954892 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Increases in Extreme Precipitation over the Northeast United States using High-resolution Climate Model Simulations
Jong, B., Delworth, T. L., & Murakami, H. (2023) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7329 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Investigating Future Changes in the Spatial Characteristics of Precipitation Extremes over the United States
Rastogi, D., Touma, D., Evans, K. J., & Ashfaq, M. (2021) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6096

Authors: Singh, D., Tsiang, M., Rajaratnam, B., & Diffenbaugh, N. S.
Affiliations: Stanford University (US)
Purdue University West Lafayette (US)
Corresponding author: Singh, Deepti
ORCID: Singh, Deepti
Rajaratnam, Bala
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
Venue: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published: 2013-07-11
Volume: 118
Issue: 13
Pages: 7063-7086
ISSN: 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
2169-897X
2169-8996
DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50543
OpenAlex: W2166421503
Cited by: 137
References: 94
Citations by year: 2026: 2 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 1
FWCI: 7.34
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
Funders: NIH (1R01AI090159-01)
DOE (DE-SC005171)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Keywords: heavy rainfall, climate change projections, SRES A1B scenario, dry spells, precipitation intensity, seasonal precipitation trends, regional precipitation change, United States climate

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Precipitation extremes over the continental United States in a transient, high‐resolution, ensemble climate model experiment

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