Cited by 498Climate variability and modelsClimate Change and Environmental ImpactMeteorological Phenomena and Simulations

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Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change

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Diffenbaugh, Noah S., Pal, Jeremy S., Trapp, Robert J., Giorgi, Filippo·2005·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI 10.1073/pnas.0506042102PMC PMC1276070

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Abstract

We find that extreme temperature and precipitation events are likely to respond substantially to anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse forcing and that fine-scale climate system modifiers are likely to play a critical role in the net response. At present, such events impact a wide variety of natural and human systems, and future changes in their frequency and/or magnitude could have dramatic ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. Our results indicate that fine-scale snow albedo effects influence the response of both hot and cold events and that peak increases in extreme hot events are amplified by surface moisture feedbacks. Likewise, we find that extreme precipitation is enhanced on the lee side of rain shadows and over coastal areas dominated by convective precipitation. We project substantial, spatially heterogeneous increases in both hot and wet events over the contiguous United States by the end of the next century, suggesting that consideration of fine-scale processes is critical for accurate assessment of local- and regional-scale vulnerability to climate change.

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Authors: Diffenbaugh, N. S., Pal, J. S., Trapp, R. J., & Giorgi, F.
Affiliations: The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) (IT)
ORCID: Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
Pal, Jeremy S.
Trapp, Robert J.
Giorgi, Filippo
Venue: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Published: 2005-10-19
Volume: 102
Issue: 44
Pages: 15774-15778
ISSN: 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0506042102
PMC: PMC1276070
OpenAlex: W2055570283
Cited by: 498
References: 50
Citations by year: 2026: 9 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 19 · 2017: 16 · 2016: 20 · 2015: 35 · 2014: 34 · 2013: 45 · 2012: 37
FWCI: 18.35
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
europepmc.org
Locations: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation (0315677)
Purdue University
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
Purdue Climate Change Research Center, Purdue University
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Keywords: temperature extremes, heavy rainfall, climate change response, snow-albedo feedback, rain shadow, convective precipitation, greenhouse forcing, regional climate projections, contiguous United States, climate change vulnerability
MeSH terms: Climate, Cold Temperature, Geography, Hot Temperature, Rain, Snow, Temperature, United States

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Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change

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