Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion
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Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.
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Profit-maximizing reallocation of land to bioenergy crops while maintaining food production, and production-maximizing crop selection considering environmental constraints, could help maximize biomass production while minimizing environmental footprints.
“Profit-maximizing reallocation land to bioenergy crops, but still maintain food production [86] from existing cropland, and production-maximizing crop selection considering en-vironmental constraints [93] could help maximize biomass production while minimize environmental footprints.”
From Biomass and biofuels in China: Toward bioenergy resource potentials and their impacts on the environment (2018) · cites this paper as [86]
Cropping intensification is believed to be an alternative to provide additional biomass production without significant cropland expansion.
“For instance, cropping intensification is believed to be an alternative to provide additional biomass production without significant cropland expansion [86].”
From Biomass and biofuels in China: Toward bioenergy resource potentials and their impacts on the environment (2018) · cites this paper as [86]
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Liu, G., Yang, Y., Guo, X., Liu, W., Xie, R., Ming, B., Xue, J., Wang, K., Li, S., & Hou, P. (2022) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106656 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Egli, L., Meyer, C., Scherber, C., Kreft, H., & Tscharntke, T. (2018) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14076 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
“, 2011), and were mainly achieved through enhanced fertilization, irrigation and pest control, shortening of crop rotations and fallow periods, mechanization, and planting of improved crop varieties (Geiger et al., 2010; Loos et al., 2014; Mauser et al., 2015; Tilman, Cassman, Matson, Naylor, & Polasky, 2002).”
BackgroundInfluentialMinoli, S., Müller, C., Elliott, J. W., Ruane, A. C., Jägermeyr, J., Zabel, F., Dury, M., Folberth, C., François, L., Hank, T., et al. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2018ef001130 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Deciphering the Biodiversity–Production Mutualism in the Global Food Security Debate
Seppelt, R., Arndt, C., Beckmann, M., Martin, E. A., & Hertel, T. W. (2020) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2020.06.012 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
“Differences are identi fi ed by either statistical or model-based comparisons to similar regions [4,5,62].”
Earth Observation Open Science and Innovation
Mathieu, P.-P., & Aubrecht, C. (2018) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-65633-5 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Fodor, N., Challinor, A., Droutsas, I., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Zabel, F., Koehler, A., & Foyer, C. (2017) · Plant and Cell Physiology · doi:10.1093/pcp/pcx141 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
“on the allocation of cropland and land use change (Mauser et al. 2015).”
BackgroundIncreasing risk of simultaneous occurrence of flash drought in major global croplands
Mahto, S. S., & Mishra, V. K. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acc8ed · Cited by 83 · see citing works
“In addition, climate warming and increasing population can further pose challenges to crop production and sustain the rising food demands (Mauser et al 2015).”
BackgroundNanoparticles as a Tool for Alleviating Plant Stress: Mechanisms, Implications, and Challenges
Kumari, A., Gupta, A. K., Sharma, S., Jadon, V. S., Sharma, V., Chun, S. C., & Sivanesan, I. (2024) · Plants · doi:10.3390/plants13111528 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Franke, J., Müller, C., Elliott, J. W., Ruane, A. C., Jägermeyr, J., Snyder, A., Dury, M., Falloon, P., Folberth, C., François, L., et al. (2020) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change
Franke, J., Müller, C., Minoli, S., Elliott, J. W., Folberth, C., Gardner, C., Hank, T., Izaurralde, R. C., Jägermeyr, J., Jones, C. D., et al. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15868 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
“…based LPJmL von Bloh et al. (2018) Ecosystem LPJ- GUESS Lindeskog et al. (2013); Olin et al. (2015) Ecosystem PROMET Hank et al. (2015); Mauser et al. (2015); Zabel et al. (2019) Site- based/Ecosystem TA B L E 1 The seven process- based globally gridded crop models used in the study,…”
MethodVega, G. C., Sohn, J. L., Voogt, J., Birkved, M., Olsen, S. I., & Nilsson, A. E. (2021) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105318 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
“Biomass demand for the production of bioenergy, biomaterials and biochemicals is estimated to increase by 70–110% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels (Mauser et al., 2015).”
BackgroundModelling predicts that soybean is poised to dominate crop production across A frica
Foyer, C. H., Siddique, K. H. M., Tai, A. P. K., Anders, S., Fodor, N., Wong, F., Ludidi, N., Chapman, M. A., Ferguson, B. J., Considine, M. J., et al. (2018) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.13466 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
“2016), witnessed by producers across much of Africa (Mauser et al. 2015).”
BackgroundRecent Global Cropland Water Consumption Constrained by Observations
Chen, Y., Feng, X., Fu, B., Shi, W., Yin, L., & Lv, Y. (2019) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2018wr023573 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
“…area has begun to slow down (Pervez & Brown, 2010; Siebert et al., 2015), and increasingly limited cropland expansion is expected in the future (Mauser et al., 2015; Sarukhan et al., 2005; Turral et al., 2011), even with irrigated cropland being transformed to rainfed types (Jing Liu et al.,…”
BackgroundEffects of profit-driven cropland expansion and conservation policies
Schneider, J. M., Delzeit, R., Neumann, C., Heimann, T., Seppelt, R., Schuenemann, F., Söder, M., Mauser, W., & Zabel, F. (2024) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-024-01410-x · Cited by 70 · see citing works
“…land-allocation sequencer iLANCE. iLANCE is a newly developed land-use model based on an established approach coupling the biophysical crop growth model PROMET and the Comput-able General Equilibrium (CGE) model DART-BIO, which has previously been used in other interdisciplinary studies 2,44 .”
Carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the United States
Spawn, S., Lark, T. J., & Gibbs, H. (2019) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab0399 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary
Henry, R., Engström, K., Olin, S., Alexander, P. M., Arneth, A., & Rounsevell, M. (2018) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0194695 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Xu, C., Li, R., Song, W., Wu, T., Sun, S., Han, T., & Wu, C. (2021) · Agronomy · doi:10.3390/agronomy11091880 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Climate change impacts on potential maize yields in Gambella Region, Ethiopia
Degife, A. W., Zabel, F., & Mauser, W. (2021) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-021-01773-3 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
“The PROMET model was applied to simulate crop growth of maize in the Gambella region (Delzeit et al. 2017; Hank et al. 2015; Mauser et al. 2015; Minoli et al. 2019; Zabel et al. 2019).”
MethodBringing it all together: linking measures to secure nations’ food supply
Kummu, M., Fader, M., Gerten, D., Guillaume, J. H. A., Jalava, M., Jägermeyr, J., Pfister, S., Porkka, M., Siebert, S., & Varis, O. (2017) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2018.01.006 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Dutta, N., Usman, M., Luo, G., & Zhang, S. (2022) · Sustainable Chemistry · doi:10.3390/suschem3010003 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Comparative energy and environmental analysis of agro-pellet production from orchard woody biomass
Hamedani, S. R., Colantoni, A., Gallucci, F., Salerno, M., Silvestri, C., & Villarini, M. (2019) · Biomass and Bioenergy · doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2019.105334 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Pressures on soil functions from soil management in Germany. A foresight review
Techen, A., & Helming, K. (2017) · Agronomy for Sustainable Development · doi:10.1007/s13593-017-0473-3 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Delzeit, R., Beach, R., Bibas, R. J., Britz, W., Château, J., Freund, F., Lefèvre, J., Schuenemann, F., Sulser, T. B., Valin, H., et al. (2020) · Journal of Global Economic Analysis · doi:10.21642/jgea.050105af · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Xu, C., Li, R., Song, W., Wu, T., Sun, S., Shui-xiu, H., Han, T., & Wu, C. (2021) · Agriculture · doi:10.3390/agriculture11010069 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
“With economic growth and diet change, the demand for soybean products will continue to increase [3,4].”
BackgroundProbst, E., & Mauser, W. (2022) · Water · doi:10.3390/w15010008 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Sustainable Agriculture and Smart Farming
Bach, H., & Mauser, W. (2018) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-65633-5_12 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
“Using the PROMET crop growth model for each simulated year the potential yield is simulated (for details see also (Mauser et al. 2015)) and the annual results are averaged for the map product illustrated in Fig.”
MethodGrand Challenges in Sustainable Intensification and Ecosystem Services
Firbank, L. G., Attwood, S. J., Eory, V., Gadanakis, Y., Lynch, J., Sonnino, R., & Takahashi, T. (2018) · Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems · doi:10.3389/fsufs.2018.00007 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
“For instance, Mauser et al. (2015) suggested that improved crop management and market mechanisms could make the need to use more land to meet demand for biomass unnecessary.”
Nearly half of the world is suitable for diversified farming for sustainable intensification
Kamau, H., Roman, S., & Biber‐Freudenberger, L. (2023) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-023-01062-3 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Land suitability for energy crops under scenarios of climate change and land‐use
Cronin, J., Zabel, F., Dessens, O., & Anandarajah, G. (2020) · GCB Bioenergy · doi:10.1111/gcbb.12697 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
“…multiple harvests per year and more efficient spatial allocation could also liberate land for energy crops, though recent studies disagree as to whether they will be sufficient to ensure future bioenergy demands can be met without expanding cropland (Henry et al., 2018; Mauser et al., 2015).”
BackgroundGuo, Y., Xia, H., Pan, L., Zhao, X., & Li, R. (2022) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs14041004 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Avellán, T., Ardakanian, R., Perret, S., Ragab, R., Vlotman, W. F., Zainal, H., Im, S., & Gany, H. A. (2017) · Irrigation and Drainage · doi:10.1002/ird.2154 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
“Global models can already tell us where irrigated areas are present (Siebert et al., 2013) and how global food markets influence agricultural production (Mauser et al. 2015).”
BackgroundYin, L., Tao, F., Chen, Y., Wang, Y., Ciais, P., & Smith, P. (2023) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2023.04.010 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Biocontrol Potential of Aspergillus Species Producing Antimicrobial Metabolites
Ngo, M. T., Nguyen, M. V., Han, J. W., Kim, B., Kim, Y. K., Park, M. S., Kim, H., & Choi, G. J. (2021) · Frontiers in Microbiology · doi:10.3389/fmicb.2021.804333 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Assessing the harvested area gap in China
Yu, Q., Wu, W., You, L., Zhu, T., van Vliet, J., Verburg, P. H., Liu, Z., Li, Z., Yang, P., Zhou, Q., et al. (2017) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2017.02.003 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields
Fujimori, S., Iizumi, T., Hasegawa, T., Takakura, J., Takahashi, K., & Hijioka, Y. (2018) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su10103673 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
“This is an important source of uncertainty as aggregated yield changes differ depending on gridded cropland patterns [20] in which similar approach has been implemented by earlier studies [21,22].”
ResultAchieving High Crop Yields with Low Nitrogen Emissions in Global Agricultural Input Intensification
Liu, W., Yang, H., Folberth, C., Müller, C., Ciais, P., Abbaspour, K. C., & Schulin, R. (2018) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.8b03610 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Probst, E., & Mauser, W. (2022) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101023 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Climate change will exacerbate land conflict between agriculture and timber production
Bousfield, C. G., Morton, O., & Edwards, D. P. (2024) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02113-z · Cited by 37 · see citing works
“56), whereas up to a third of the food produced annually is never consumed, with food worth ~US$1 trillion wasted every year 57,58 .”
Müller, C., Jägermeyr, J., Franke, J., Ruane, A. C., Balkovič, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., Falloon, P., Folberth, C., Hank, T., et al. (2024) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef003773 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
A review of nanotechnology in enzyme cascade to address challenges in pre-treating biomass
Hussain, A., Parveen, F., Saxena, A., & Ashfaque, M. (2024) · International Journal of Biological Macromolecules · doi:10.1016/j.ijbiomac.2024.132466 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Yields and Yield Gaps in Lowland Rice Systems and Options to Improve Smallholder Production
Awio, T., Senthilkumar, K., Dimkpa, C. O., Otim-Nape, G. W., Struik, P. C., & Stomph, T. J. (2022) · Agronomy · doi:10.3390/agronomy12030552 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Delzeit, R., Klepper, G., Zabel, F., & Mauser, W. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9da2 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
“PROMET is an integrated hydrological land surface process model, which includes a detailed dynamic simulation of crop growth for 18 different staple and bioenergy crops (table S3) (e.g. Mauser and Bach 2009, Mauser et al 2015).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialAppel, F., Koch, F., Rösel, A., Klug, P., Henkel, P., Lamm, M., Mauser, W., & Bach, H. (2019) · Geosciences · doi:10.3390/geosciences9010044 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Dornik, A., Chețan, M. A., Crişan, T. E., Heciko, R., Gora, A., Drăguţ, L., & Panagos, P. (2024) · International Soil and Water Conservation Research · doi:10.1016/j.iswcr.2024.01.002 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Soil and crop management to save food and enhance food security
Gomiero, T. (2019) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-815357-4.00002-x · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Schneider, J. M., Zabel, F., Schuenemann, F., Delzeit, R., & Mauser, W. (2022) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0263063 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Li, Y., Zhang, Z., Liu, S., Cao, Z., Ke, Q., Chen, L., & Wang, G. (2023) · Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment · doi:10.1016/j.agee.2023.108504 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Biodiversity responses to agricultural practices in cropland and natural habitats
Zhao, J., Yu, L., Newbold, T., Shen, X., Liu, X., Hua, F., Kanniah, K. D., & Ma, K. (2024) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171296 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
“Increasing cropping frequency has been regarded as a promising alternative to cropland expansion for achieving food security, but evaluation of its environmental effects is needed (Mauser et al., 2015; Wu et al., 2018).”
Srivastava, A. K., Mboh, C. M., Gaiser, T., & Ewert, F. A. (2016) · Field Crops Research · doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2016.11.010 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Probst, E., Fader, M., & Mauser, W. (2023) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169405 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
The cropland intensive utilisation transition in China: An induced factor substitution perspective
Ke, X., Chen, J., Zuo, C., & Wang, X. (2024) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107128 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?
van Zeist, W., Stehfest, E., Doelman, J., Valin, H., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlík, P., Humpenöder, F., Kyle, P. G., et al. (2020) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102120 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Tian, F., Wu, B., Zeng, H., Watmough, G. R., Zhang, M., & Li, Y. (2022) · Geography and sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2022.01.001 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Interprovincial food trade aggravates China’s land scarcity
He, J., Wang, S., Heijungs, R., Yang, Y., Shu, S., Zhang, W., Xu, A., & Fang, K. (2024) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-023-02534-9 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Soil Moisture Retrieval Based on GPS Signal Strength Attenuation
Koch, F., Schlenz, F., Prasch, M., Appel, F., Ruf, T., & Mauser, W. (2016) · Water · doi:10.3390/w8070276 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“The hydrologic land-surface PROcesses of Mass and Energy Transfer (PROMET) model is physically based and describes all relevant water and energy fluxes [8,39,47].”
BackgroundBacca, E. J. M., Stevanović, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Karstens, K., Chen, D. M.-C., Leip, D., Müller, C., Minoli, S., Heinke, J., Jägermeyr, J., et al. (2023) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Alonso, A. R. P., Cimpan, C., & Münster, M. (2018) · Waste Management · doi:10.1016/j.wasman.2018.07.006 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Dlamini, N. S., Senzanje, A., & Mabhaudhi, T. (2023) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101330 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Evidente, A. (2023) · Natural Product Reports · doi:10.1039/d3np00035d · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Global cropland expansion enhances cropping potential and reduces its inequality among countries
Liu, X., Zhu, P., Liu, S., Yu, L., Wang, Y., Du, Z., Peng, D., Aksoy, E., Lu, H. M., & Gong, P. (2024) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-15-817-2024 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
“This, in turn, can contribute to sustainable crop-land development, serve the goals of sustainable agricultural development and food security, and contribute to the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs; UN, 2018).”
BackgroundCropland yield divergence over Africa and its implication for mitigating food insecurity
Luan, Y., Zhu, W., Cui, X., Fischer, G., Dawson, T. P., Shi, P., & Zhang, Z. (2018) · Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · doi:10.1007/s11027-018-9827-7 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Optimizing canopy-spacing configuration increases soybean yield under high planting density
Li, R., Xu, C., Wu, Z., Xu, Y., Sun, S., Song, W., & Wu, C. (2025) · The Crop Journal · doi:10.1016/j.cj.2024.12.005 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
BESTMAP: behavioural, Ecological and Socio-economic Tools for Modelling Agricultural Policy
Ziv, G., Beckmann, M., Bullock, J. M., Cord, A. F., Delzeit, R., Domingo‐Marimon, C., Dreßler, G., Hagemann, N., Masó, J., Müller, B. H., et al. (2020) · Research Ideas and Outcomes · doi:10.3897/rio.6.e52052 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
- Authors
- Mauser, W., Klepper, G., Zabel, F., Delzeit, R., Hank, T., Putzenlechner, B., & Calzadilla, A.
- Affiliations
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE)
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Mauser, Wolfram
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2015-11-12
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 8946-8946
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4660367
- OpenAlex
- W2257579174
- Cited by
- 236
- References
- 44
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 19 · 2018: 26 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 7
- FWCI
- 32.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Open access LMU (Ludwid Maxmilian's Universitat Munchen) (submittedVersion)
- GoeScholar The Publication Server of the Georg-August-Universität Göttingen (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- biomass demand, cropland expansion, agricultural intensification, cropping intensity, farm profit maximization, future food demand
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Conservation of Natural Resources, Forecasting, Ecosystem, Biomass, Crops, Agricultural, Internationality
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