Cited by 104Agricultural Science and FertilizationAgricultural Innovations and PracticesAgricultural economics and policies

Fertilizer and grain prices constrain food production in sub-Saharan Africa

Bonilla-Cedrez, Camila, Chamberlin, Jordan, Hijmans, Robert J.·2021·Nature Food

Abstract

Crop yields across sub-Saharan Africa are much lower than what is attainable given the environmental conditions and available technologies. Closing this 'ecological yield gap' is considered an important food security and rural welfare goal. It is not clear, however, whether it is economically sensible for farmers to substantially increase crop yields. Here we estimate the local yield response of maize to fertilizer across sub-Saharan Africa with an empirical machine-learning model based on 12,081 trial observations and with a mechanistic model. We show that the average 'economic yield gap'-the difference between current yield and profit-maximizing yield-is about one-quarter of the ecological yield gap. Furthermore, although maize yields could be profitably doubled, the economic incentives to do so may be weak. Our findings suggest that agricultural intensification in sub-Saharan Africa could be supported by complementary agronomic approaches to improve soil fertility, lowering the fertilizer cost, and by spatial targeting of fertilizer recommendations.

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Crossref · 10.1038/s43016-021-00370-1

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1 of the 71 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. Snapp, S., Jayne, T. S., Mhango, W., Benson, T. & Ricker-Gilbert, J. in National Symposium on Eight Years of FISP—Impact and What Next 14–15 (2014).
  2. Levins, R. The strategy of model building in population ecology. Am. Sci. 54, 421–431 (1996).

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Authors
Bonilla-Cedrez, C., Chamberlin, J., & Hijmans, R. J.
Affiliations
  • International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (KE)
  • University of California, Davis (US)
Venue
Nature Food
Published
2021-10-07
Volume
2
Issue
10
Pages
766-772
ISSN
2662-1355 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W3203527942
Cited by
104
References
71
Citations by year
2026: 22 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 2
FWCI
9.20
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • Nature Food (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-008260)
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Agricultural Science and Fertilization
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agricultural Innovations and Practices
  • Social Sciences › Safety Research › Agricultural economics and policies
Keywords
fertilizer prices, grain prices, agricultural intensification, soil fertility, food security, sub-Saharan Africa

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