Response of Tropical Precipitation to Global Warming

Romps, David M.

doi:10.1175/2010jas3542.1

Cited by 166Climate variability and modelsMeteorological Phenomena and SimulationsAtmospheric aerosols and clouds

Response of Tropical Precipitation to Global Warming

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Romps, David M.·2011·Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

DOI 10.1175/2010jas3542.1

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Abstract

Using high-resolution cloud-resolving simulations with different CO2 concentrations, local precipitation fluxes are found to obey Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling. Previous studies of the effect of CO2 concentration on precipitation extremes have used general circulation models, which are poor platforms for studying tropical convection because convection is parameterized. In idealized cloud-resolving simulations, it is possible to identify not only the changes in local precipitation fluxes, but also the factors responsible for those changes. There are many properties of convection that can change as the atmosphere warms, each of which could produce deviations from CC scaling. These properties include the effective water-vapor gradient, cloud pressure depth, and cloud velocity. A simple theory is developed that predicts the changes in these properties consistent with CC scaling. Convection in the cloud-resolving simulations is found to change as predicted by this theory, leading to an ∼20% increase in local precipitation fluxes when the CO2 concentration is doubled. Overall, an increase in CO2 leads to more vigorous convection, composed of clouds that are wider, taller, and faster.

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Updrafts do become somewhat faster with warming when lapse rates are allowed to equilibrate rather than being imposed in simulations of RCE, although the dynamical contribution to changes in precipitation extremes is still relatively small.
“As discussed in the “Theory” section, updrafts do become somewhat faster with warming when lapse rates are allowed to equilibrate (rather than being imposed) in simulations of RCE, although the dynamical contribution to changes in precipitation extremes is still relatively small [56, 70, 77].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [70]
The Convective velocity section reports that fast updrafts become more common in the warmer simulation. But Changes in convection (p. unavailable) says increased vertical velocity contributes to stronger local precipitation fluxes in roughly equal measure with two other factors, including for the heaviest precipitation events. That contradicts the claim that the dynamical contribution is relatively small; the copy also does not establish the stated comparison with imposed lapse rates. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
For surface temperatures near those of the present-day tropics, the precipitation extremes increase at close to the thermodynamic rate, and this is close to Clausius-Clapeyron scaling with the surface specific humidity, with relatively small contributions from changes in vertical velocities and precipitation efficiency.
“For surface temperatures near those of the present-day tropics, the precipitation extremes increase at close to the thermodynamic rate, and this is close to Clausius-Clapeyron scaling with the surface specific humidity, with relatively small contributions from changes in vertical velocities and precipitation efficiency [56, 70, 77].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [70]
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
In radiative-convective equilibrium, both the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the updraft velocities in the middle and upper troposphere increase with warming.
“Both the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the updraft velocities in the middle and upper troposphere increase with warming in RCE [56, 70]”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [70]

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Authors: Romps, D. M.
Affiliations: Harvard University (US)
Corresponding author: Romps, David M.
ORCID: Romps, David M.
Venue: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Published: 2011-01-01
Volume: 68
Issue: 1
Pages: 123-138
ISSN: 0022-4928 (ISSN-L)
1520-0469
DOI: 10.1175/2010jas3542.1
OpenAlex: W1972494328
Cited by: 166
References: 41
Citations by year: 2026: 6 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 15 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 17 · 2013: 14 · 2012: 6
FWCI: 6.89
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Locations: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (publishedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Keywords: tropical precipitation, global warming, Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, CO2 concentration, tropical convection, heavy rainfall, cloud-resolving model, cloud velocity, convection theory

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Response of Tropical Precipitation to Global Warming

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