The DOI matches its Crossref record; 68 of the 68 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 16 of the 48 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Empirical evidence of mental health risks posed by climate change
Open accessAbstract
Sound mental health-a critical facet of human wellbeing-has the potential to be undermined by climate change. Few large-scale studies have empirically examined this hypothesis. Here, we show that short-term exposure to more extreme weather, multiyear warming, and tropical cyclone exposure each associate with worsened mental health. To do so, we couple meteorological and climatic data with reported mental health difficulties drawn from nearly 2 million randomly sampled US residents between 2002 and 2012. We find that shifting from monthly temperatures between 25 °C and 30 °C to >30 °C increases the probability of mental health difficulties by 0.5% points, that 1°C of 5-year warming associates with a 2% point increase in the prevalence of mental health issues, and that exposure to Hurricane Katrina associates with a 4% point increase in this metric. Our analyses provide added quantitative support for the conclusion that environmental stressors produced by climate change pose threats to human mental health.
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Claims the paper makes
23 Own method · 23 Own result · 10 Own interpretation · 9 No full text of the sources · 7 Partly supported · 7 Sources not found · 3 Supported so far · 2 Not checked yet · 2 No basis given · 1 Not supported · accuracy not yet measured
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“psychiatric hospital visits increase during hotter temperatures (31-33)”
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [31] source
The Discussion reports that hospital admissions for mental and behavioral disorders increased above 26.7°C and were 7.3% higher during heat waves than during control periods. This supports the claim's general description of increased psychiatric hospital visits in hotter weather. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [32] source
- Supportedcites [33] Chan EY, et al. (2018) Association between ambient temperatures and mental disorder hospitalizations in a subtropical city: A time-series study of Hong Kong special administrative region. Int J Environ Res Public Health 15:754. source
The Conclusions report that high temperature was significantly associated with more mental-disorder hospitalizations in Hong Kong. The Discussion also reports a positive association between temperature and mental-disorder admissions at lags of 0–2 days, supporting the paraphrase about psychiatric hospital visits. (LLM, conf=0.93)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“exposure to hurricanes and floods is associated with symptoms of acute depression as well as posttraumatic stress disorder (22-27)”
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [22] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Socio-demographic predictors of the trends section (page not provided) reports a strong association between hurricane-related stress and PTSD, as well as serious mental illness. The paper studies Hurricane Katrina, but does not establish the claimed association for floods separately or report acute depression as a distinct outcome. (LLM, conf=0.87)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [23] source
- Partly supportedcites [24] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results report hurricane-related PTSD and depression in the months after Hurricane Ike, supporting the hurricane portion of the claim. The Introduction and Discussion note that post-hurricane depression prevalence was comparable to general-population estimates, so the paper does not establish an increased risk of acute depression; it also does not separately assess flood exposure. Page numbers are not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [25] source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [26]
- Partly supportedcites [27] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Discussion reports elevated probable depression and PTSD one and two years after flooding, supporting the flood-related portion of the claim. The paper studies flooding in England, not hurricane exposure or acute symptoms. Its Abstract Results also report that flooding was associated with higher adjusted odds of depression at year two, but not PTSD. (LLM, conf=0.86)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“We omit nonclimatic control variables from Eq. 1 because of their potential to generate posttreatment bias in our parameters of interest (18, 45).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [18] source
- Supportedcites [45] Hsiang S (2016) Climate econometrics. Annu Rev Resource Econ 8:43-75. source
Section 2.1.2, “Identification in time series,” warns that adding time-varying nonclimatic controls can introduce bias when those factors are affected by climatic events. This supports the citing authors’ stated reason for omitting such controls; the decision to omit them is their own. (LLM, conf=0.91)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“The estimated coefficients from f ( AVG . TMAXijkst ) and g ( PRECIP . DAYSijkts ) from this estimation can thus be interpreted as the causal effects of maximum temperature and precipitation days on the 30-d occurrence of mental health issues (45, 62).”
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [45] Hsiang S (2016) Climate econometrics. Annu Rev Resource Econ 8:43-75. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
In §2.1.2 (page unavailable), the paper says unit fixed effects absorb time-invariant differences and describes weather variation as usually assumed exogenous. It also warns that time-varying confounders and omitted, correlated weather variables can bias the coefficients. It therefore supports the general identification approach, but not the claim that conditioning on fixed effects alone makes these particular temperature and precipitation coefficients causal for 30-day mental-health outcomes. (LLM, conf=0.85)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [62] Carleton TA, Hsiang SM (2016) Social and economic impacts of climate. Science 353:aad9837. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: After conditioning on the fixed effects, the remaining variation in 30-day maximum temperature and precipitation is as good as random.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“We control for average diurnal temperature range, percentage of cloud cover, relative humidity, and wind speed, which are represented via Z η , as failure to do so may bias our primary estimates (45).”
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [45] Hsiang S (2016) Climate econometrics. Annu Rev Resource Econ 8:43-75. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 2.1.2 (page unavailable) says estimates may be biased when important, correlated climatic variables are omitted. It does not identify diurnal temperature range, cloud cover, relative humidity, or wind speed as necessary controls, so it supports the general rationale but not the specific list. (LLM, conf=0.84)
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Regions with less-temperate climates, insufficient resources (51), and greater reliance on ecological systems may see more severe effects of climate change on mental health (28).”
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [28] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The adaptation analysis (page not provided) finds greater temperature sensitivity in hotter Indian locations, and the agricultural-mechanism analysis links crop-damaging heat to higher suicide rates. These findings support a concern about hotter, agriculture-dependent regions, but the paper studies suicide in India, not mental-health effects broadly across regions. It also finds no greater temperature sensitivity in poorer locations; the citing sentence attaches a different citation to its resources clause. (LLM, conf=0.87)
- Could not verifycites [51] Bhugra D, et al. (2017) The WPA-Lancet psychiatry commission on the future of psychiatry. Lancet Psychiatry 4:775-818. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract (page unavailable) links natural disasters and displacement to adverse mental-health effects, but does not discuss climate change or identify less-temperate regions and ecological dependence as reasons for more severe effects. Searches for climate change and ecological systems found no passage addressing that regional comparison. The insufficient-resources phrase has a separate citation (51). (LLM, conf=0.76)
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“SI Appendix , Fig. S5 and Table S3 shows that results are robust to using the full distribution of daily maximum temperatures over the period (63).”
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [63] Deschˆ enes O, Greenstone M (2011) Climate change, mortality, and adaptation: Evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US. Am Econ J Appl Econ 3:152-185. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section III (Data Sources and Summary Statistics; page unavailable) says the paper models the full distribution of daily mean temperatures. Section A (Estimates of the Impact of Temperature on Mortality; page unavailable) reports robustness across alternative specifications, but our copy does not show a robustness test using the full distribution of daily maximum temperatures. The cited paper therefore supports the distribution-based approach, not the specific maximum-temperature robustness claim. (LLM, conf=0.83)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“shifting from monthly temperatures between 25 ◦ C and 30 ◦ C to > 30 ◦ C increases the probability of mental health difficulties by 0.5% points”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · p. 4 · plain
“The effect of shifting from average monthly temperatures between 25 ◦ C and 30 ◦ C to averages greater than 30 ◦ C on the probability of mental health difficulties (+0.5% points)”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Discussion · p. 4 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“1 ◦ C of 5-year warming associates with a 2% point increase in the prevalence of mental health issues”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · p. 4 · plain
“the association between 1 ◦ C of 5-y warming and the prevalence of mental health issues (+2% points)”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Discussion · p. 4 · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“exposure to Hurricane Katrina associates with a 4% point increase in this metric”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · p. 4 · plain
“the association between exposure to Hurricane Katrina and occurrence of mental health difficulties (+4% points)”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Discussion · p. 4 · plain
- It may state two separate claims as one. 12
- Probably not a substantial claim. 15
At least one cited source doesn’t support this claim or points to a different paper, and none confirmed it — see the verdicts below.
In the paper
“both heat and drought amplify the risk of suicide (28-30)”
What the sources say
- Disputedcites [28] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract reports that high temperatures increase suicide rates during India’s growing season. But the Agricultural Mechanism passage explicitly says that drought appears to have no effect on suicide rates, either immediately or with a lag, contrary to the claim about drought. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [29] source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [30] source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Disputed
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“This measure has been shown to possess both psychometric test-retest reliability (38) and convergent validity with other standard measures of mental health status (39, 40).”
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [38] Andresen EM, Catlin TK, Wyrwich KW, Jackson-Thompson J (2003) Retest reliability of surveillance questions on health related quality of life. J Epidemiol Community Health 57:339-343. source
Citation (38) is attached to test-retest reliability, not convergent validity, which is attributed to citations (39, 40). The Results report retest reliability for the mental-health measures, and the Discussion describes the BRFSS questions’ retest reliability as moderate to excellent. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Supportedcites [39] Moriarty DG, Zack MM, Kobau R (2003) The centers for disease control and prevention's healthy days measures-Population tracking of perceived physical and mental health over time. Health Qual Life Outcomes 1:37. source
In “How were the Healthy Days Measures validated?” (page not available), the paper reports acceptable test-retest reliability for the CDC HRQOL-4 measures and acceptable validity against SF-36 scales for the CDC HRQOL-14 measures, which include a mental-health question. It qualifies the reliability finding: the measures were less reliable among older adults. (LLM, conf=0.85)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [40] Kroenke K, et al. (2009) The phq-8 as a measure of current depression in the general population. J Affective Disord 114:163-173. source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“However, as these demographic variables may be affected by Katrina exposure, we prefer the specifications that exclude demographic controls (45).”
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [45] Hsiang S (2016) Climate econometrics. Annu Rev Resource Econ 8:43-75. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 2.1.2, “Identification in time series” (page not provided), warns that controlling for nonclimatic factors affected by climatic events can introduce bad-control bias. It does not specifically address whether Katrina exposure affected demographic variables. The preference for specifications without those controls is the citing authors’ choice, not a finding attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.84)
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“However, as these demographic variables may themselves be driven by longer-term changes in meteorological variables and thus, serve as 'bad controls,' we prefer the specifications that exclude demographic controls (45).”
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [45] Hsiang S (2016) Climate econometrics. Annu Rev Resource Econ 8:43-75. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 2.1.2, “Identification in time series” (page not provided), warns that time-varying nonclimatic factors can be bad controls if climatic events affect them. It gives crop prices and avoidance behavior as examples, but does not specifically address demographic variables or longer-term meteorological changes. The preference for specifications without demographic controls is the citing authors’ own choice. (LLM, conf=0.84)
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Here, we show that short-term exposure to more extreme weather, multiyear warming, and tropical cyclone exposure each associate with worsened mental health.”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · p. 4 · plain
“we show that short-term weather, multiyear warming, and tropical cyclone exposure each relate to worsened mental health outcomes.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Discussion · p. 4 · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“cities that are missing some years produce a smaller estimate (coefficient: 1.293, P = 0.134, n = 78)”
plaincorrelationaln = 78- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Rests on an assumption: Spatial variation in multiyear warming is exogenous to unobserved determinants of mental health changes.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the distribution of the answers to our mental health variable presents a clustering at weeks of the month as well as at 5-d intervals, although the true underlying distribution is likely continuous ( SI Appendix , Fig. S9).”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This estimate is slightly larger if we include only the cities that have subjects across each year in the sample (coefficient: 2.055, p =0.014, n =78)”
plainn = 78 ·- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Rests on an assumption: Spatial variation in multiyear warming is exogenous to unobserved determinants of mental health changes.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Locales not exposed to Katrina observed a drop in rates of mental health issues, while locales exposed to Katrina experienced an increase.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Changes in precipitation are projected with less certainty (Fig. 1 B ).”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“possibly due to attenuation from added measurement error (48).”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [48] Wooldridge JM (2010) Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditionaln = 78- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“the theoretical relationship between climate change and mental health risk is compelling (2, 21).”
What the sources say
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“recall of mental health difficulties may be susceptible to memory limitations given the interaction of psychological distress and cognitive functioning (56), adding error to the 30-d measure (48).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [56] Kizilbash AH, Vanderploeg RD, Curtiss G (2002) The effects of depression and anxiety on memory performance. Arch Clin Neuropsychol 17:57-67. source
- Not matchedcites [48] Wooldridge JM (2010) Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Hurricane Katrina resulted in one of the worst disasters in US history and affected millions of individuals along the US Gulf Coast (49).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [49] Lambrew JM, Shalala DE (2006) Federal health policy response to Hurricane Katrina: What it was and what it could have been. JAMA 296:1394-1397. source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Worry about climate change itself may exacerbate these environmental impacts on mental wellbeing (52, 53).”
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [52] Searle K, Gow K (2010) Do concerns about climate change lead to distress? Int J Clim Change Strateg Management 2:362-379. source
- Not matchedcites [53] Clayton S, Manning C, Krygsman K, Speiser M (2017) Mental Health and Our Changing Climate: Impacts, Implications, and Guidance (American Psychological Association and ecoAmerica, Washington, DC).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Coefficient estimates in this model represent the effect on probability of reporting mental health issues of having 1 additional day of the 30-d window falling in the specified maximum temperature bin.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result, care is warranted with respect to the causal interpretation of these estimates.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, there may be unobserved daily considerations or region-specific time trends influencing our mental health outcomes that could spuriously correlate with the weather. To control for these potential confounds, we include µ t and ν ks in Eq. 1 , representing calendar date and state-by-year fixed effects, respectively.”
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“climate change is also likely to increase the rates of year-over-year and decade-over-decade warming of local climates and the chronic stressors that such warming produces (14, 46).”
What the sources say
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“SI Appendix , Table S7 presents minimal evidence of the effect of meteorology on sample collection, indicating a low threat of sample selection bias driven by the meteorological variables that we use.”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“We adjust for spatial and serial correlation in ϵ ijkts by using heteroskedasticity-robust SEs clustered at the state level (48).”
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [48] Wooldridge JM (2010) Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“β from Eq. 5 provides an estimate of multiyear warming on multiyear change in rates of individuals reporting mental health issues.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: City-level changes in mean maximum temperature between the two periods are uncorrelated with unobserved time-varying variables that affect mental health outcomes.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our estimate of interest, ψ , represents the relationship between a city's experience with Hurricane Katrina and residents' subsequent mental health outcomes.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: There are no contemporaneous shocks, and disaster-affected areas were trending similarly to nondisaster areas before Hurricane Katrina landfall.
The paper relies on this without support.
Historical relationships between climatic variations and mental health can help estimate the magnitude of risks that climate change poses to mental health.
“These historical relationships can aid in estimating the magnitude of the risks that climate change poses to mental health.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Meteorological variation is exogenous.
“leveraging exogenous meteorological variation to examine the effect of short-run (past 30 d) weather exposure on individuals' mental health outcomes”
The paper relies on this without support.
In the absence of Hurricane Katrina, disaster and nondisaster areas would have followed parallel trends in mental health.
“we use a difference-in-differences approach, leveraging the landfall of Hurricane Katrina to examine the association between tropical cyclone exposure and our measure of reported mental health outcomes”
The paper relies on this without support.
Spatial variation in multiyear warming is exogenous to unobserved determinants of mental health changes.
“we use the long-differences approach (28, 45, 47), leveraging spatial variation in city-level changes between the years 2002-2006 and 2007-2011”
The paper relies on this without support.
Hurricane Katrina exposure is captured by declared disaster areas.
“Cities with declared disasters observed an increase in reports of mental health issues over this same period.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
After conditioning on the fixed effects, the remaining variation in 30-day maximum temperature and precipitation is as good as random.
“Our empirical identifying assumption is that the remaining variation in 30-d maximum temperature and precipitation is as good as random after conditioning on these fixed effects (45, 62) ( SI Appendix , Fig. S2).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
City-level changes in mean maximum temperature between the two periods are uncorrelated with unobserved time-varying variables that affect mental health outcomes.
“Unbiasedness of β requires that city-level changes in mean maximum temperature between our two periods are uncorrelated with unobserved time-varying variables that alter our mental health outcomes of interest (47).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
There are no contemporaneous shocks, and disaster-affected areas were trending similarly to nondisaster areas before Hurricane Katrina landfall.
“Unbiasedness of ψ requires the assumption of no contemporaneous shocks and that disaster affected areas were trending similarly to nondisaster areas before hurricane landfall (48).”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Another study found that monthly temperatures above 30 °C increased the probability of mental health difficulties by 0.5%, and ongoing exposure to increasing temperatures (1 °C over five years) was associated with a 2% increase in the prevalence of mental health issues [28].”
From Climate Change and Mental Health: A Scoping Review (2021) · cites this paper as [28]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Another study found that monthly temperatures above 30 °C increased the probability of mental health difficulties by 0.5%, and ongoing exposure to increasing temperatures (1 °C over five years) was associated with a 2% increase in the prevalence of mental health issues [28].”
From Climate Change and Mental Health: A Scoping Review (2021) · cites this paper as [28]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“The central findings of each of these papers corroborate our results for the two different outcomes they address.”
From Temperature and mental health: Evidence from the spectrum of mental health outcomes (2019) · cites this paper as Obradovich et al., 2018
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Results · p. 3
“Months with greater than 25 d of precipitation increase the probability of mental health issues by 2% points compared with zero monthly precipitation”
§ Methods · p. 6
“We omit the 10 ◦ C to 15 ◦ C maximum temperature and 0-5 precipitation days indicator variables and interpret our estimates as the change in probability of reporting recent mental health issues associated with a particular temperature or precipitation day range relative to these baselines.”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Obradovich, N., Migliorini, R., Paulus, M. P., & Rahwan, I.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Edith Nourse Rogers Memorial Veterans Hospital (US)
- University of California San Diego (US)
- MIT Media Lab (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2018-10-08
- Volume
- 115
- Issue
- 43
- Pages
- 10953-10958
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC6205461
- OpenAlex
- W2894555852
- Semantic Scholar
- a29e8d843e2b99e6fd6913fb8a67bc4019a6edea
- Cited by
- 492
- References
- 65
- Citations by year
- 2026: 77 · 2025: 83 · 2024: 82 · 2023: 62 · 2022: 62 · 2021: 76 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 15.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Mental Health Treatment and Access
- Keywords
- climate change, mental health, extreme weather events, heat exposure, tropical cyclones, Hurricane Katrina, environmental stressors
- MeSH terms
- Mental Disorders, Cross-Sectional Studies, Disasters, Humans, Mental Health, Risk, Weather, Prevalence, Cyclonic Storms, Climate Change
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-09-30, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-09-30 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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