Crop-damaging temperatures increase suicide rates in India
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Abstract
Significance: Suicide is a stark indicator of human hardship, yet the causes of these deaths remain understudied, particularly in developing countries. This analysis of India, where one fifth of the world’s suicides occur, demonstrates that the climate, particularly temperature, has strong influence over a growing suicide epidemic. With 47 y of suicide records and climate data, I show that high temperatures increase suicide rates, but only during India’s growing season, when heat also reduces crop yields. My results are consistent with widely cited theories of economic suicide in India. Moreover, these findings have important implications for future climate change; I estimate that warming temperature trends over the last three decades have already been responsible for over 59,000 suicides throughout India.
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Heat and drought amplify the risk of suicide.
“both heat and drought amplify the risk of suicide (28-30)”
From Empirical evidence of mental health risks posed by climate change (2018) · cites this paper as [28]
The Abstract reports that high temperatures increase suicide rates during India’s growing season. But the Agricultural Mechanism passage explicitly says that drought appears to have no effect on suicide rates, either immediately or with a lag, contrary to the claim about drought. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredNegative events stimulate mental distress, anxiety, depression, and suicide.
“Negative events stimulate feelings of alertness, constant monitoring of current and future events, mental distress, anxiety, depression, and suicide (103)”
From The Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health: A Systematic Descriptive Review (2020) · cites this paper as [103]
The Abstract (page unavailable) reports that high growing-season temperatures increase suicide rates in India, and the agricultural-mechanism discussion links this finding to crop-damaging shocks. The paper does not establish that negative events generally cause mental distress, anxiety, or depression, nor does it address alertness or constant monitoring. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredRegions with less-temperate climates, insufficient resources, and greater reliance on ecological systems may see more severe effects of climate change on mental health.
“Regions with less-temperate climates, insufficient resources (51), and greater reliance on ecological systems may see more severe effects of climate change on mental health (28).”
From Empirical evidence of mental health risks posed by climate change (2018) · cites this paper as [28]
The adaptation analysis (page not provided) finds greater temperature sensitivity in hotter Indian locations, and the agricultural-mechanism analysis links crop-damaging heat to higher suicide rates. These findings support a concern about hotter, agriculture-dependent regions, but the paper studies suicide in India, not mental-health effects broadly across regions. It also finds no greater temperature sensitivity in poorer locations; the citing sentence attaches a different citation to its resources clause. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredHigh temperatures lead to increased suicide rates through impacts on crop yields in India.
“Carleton (2017) convincingly demonstrates such links in India with findings that high temperatures lead to increased suicide rates through impacts on crop yields.”
From Temperature and mental health: Evidence from the spectrum of mental health outcomes (2019) · cites this paper as Carleton (2017)
The Results report that high growing-season temperatures increase suicide rates in India, and the paper also finds that heat reduces crop yields. But the crop-yield pathway is presented as a suggested mechanism, not a demonstrated one: the Discussion says there is no direct test of whether climate-induced economic hardship leads to suicide. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredTemperature has been associated with self-harm and suicide rates.
“Temperature has also been associated with self-harm and suicide rates [60,61,62,63,64].”
From Climate Change and Mental Health: A Scoping Review (2021) · cites this paper as [61]
In studies with a baseline/comparator (unexposed) group, mental disorders were significantly greater among those exposed versus unexposed to the climate change or climate-related disaster event.
“In studies with a baseline/comparator (ie, unexposed) group, mental disorders were significantly greater among those exposed vs unexposed to the climate change or climate-related disaster event.32–34”
From Climate change, climate-related disasters and mental disorder in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review (2021) · cites this paper as [32]
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- Authors
- Carleton, T. A.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Corresponding author
- Carleton, Tamma A.
- ORCID
- Carleton, Tamma A.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2017-07-31
- Volume
- 114
- Issue
- 33
- Pages
- 8746-8751
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC5565417
- OpenAlex
- W2739858810
- Cited by
- 446
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2026: 42 · 2025: 55 · 2024: 61 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 48 · 2021: 49 · 2020: 83 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 32 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 1
- FWCI
- 21.39
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (FP91780401)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- suicide rates, temperature effects, climate change, farm income, crop yield, heat stress, self-harm, developing countries, India, climate change adaptation
- MeSH terms
- Acclimatization, Agriculture, Climate, Developing Countries, Hot Temperature, Humans, Income, India, Seasons, Suicide, Temperature
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