Cited by 259Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk ManagementGlobal Health Care IssuesHealth disparities and outcomes

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Dynamics of life expectancy and life span equality

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Aburto, José Manuel, Villavicencio, Francisco, Basellini, Ugofilippo, Kjærgaard, Søren, Vaupel, James W.·2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI 10.1073/pnas.1915884117PMC PMC7071894

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Abstract

Significance: Why life expectancy and life span equality have increased together is a question of scientific interest. Both measures are calculated for a calendar year and might not describe a cohort’s actual life course. Nonetheless, life expectancy provides a useful measure of average life spans, and life span equality gives insights into uncertainty about age at death. We show how patterns of change in life expectancy and life span equality are described by trajectories of mortality improvements over age and time. The strength of the relationship between life expectancy and life span equality is not coincidental but rather a result of progress in saving lives at specific ages: the more lives saved at the youngest ages, the stronger the relationship is.

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Fig. 1. Association between life expectancy at birth eo and life span equality h.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central

Fig. 2. (A) Association between changes in life expectancy at birth eo and life span equality h. (B) Association between changes over 10-y rolling periods.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central

Fig. 3. Weights for the changes in life expectancy w(x) (A and B) and life span equality w(x)Wh(x) (C and D). Each line refers to a given period and represents how life expectancy and life span equality react to age-specific mortality improvements for Swedish women in selected periods.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central

Fig. 4. (A) Association between 10-y changes in life expectancy at birth eo and life span equality h because of mortality changes below the threshold age. (B) Association between 10-y changes in eo and h because of mortality changes above the threshold age. The dotted lines show the directions of the relationship below and above the threshold age.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central

Fig. 5. Life expectancy at birth eo and life span equality h for three different scenarios: 1) observed points: Swedish females, 1751 to 2017; 2) youngest equality: life span equality derived by matching observed life expectancy levels by reducing the youngest age; and 3) constant change over age: death rates in each year at all ages are reduced at the rate ρ to achieve the observed change in life expectancy at birth.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central

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Authors: Aburto, J. M., Villavicencio, F., Basellini, U., Kjærgaard, S., & Vaupel, J. W.
Affiliations: University of Southern Denmark (DK)
Johns Hopkins University (US)
Institut national d'études démographiques (FR)
Duke University (US)
Corresponding author: Aburto, José Manuel
Vaupel, James W.
ORCID: Aburto, José Manuel
Villavicencio, Francisco
Basellini, Ugofilippo
Kjærgaard, Søren
Vaupel, James W.
Venue: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Published: 2020-02-24
Volume: 117
Issue: 10
Pages: 5250-5259
ISSN: 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1915884117
PMC: PMC7071894
OpenAlex: W3007082643
Cited by: 254
References: 89
Citations by year: 2026: 26 · 2025: 39 · 2024: 58 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 49 · 2021: 33 · 2020: 16
FWCI: 49.37
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: hybrid
doi.org
Licence: cc-by-nc-nd
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (submittedVersion)
HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Archined (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
University of Southern Denmark Research Portal (University of Southern Denmark) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Funders: Max-Planck-Gesellschaft
National Institute on Aging (P01AG031719)
H2020 European Research Council (716323)
Topics: Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Global Health Care Issues
Social Sciences › Health › Health disparities and outcomes
Keywords: life expectancy, mortality decline, aging, age-specific mortality, Human Mortality Database, Sweden, public health policy
MeSH terms: Age Factors, Female, Humans, Life Expectancy, Longevity, Male, Mortality, Population Dynamics, Public Health, Sex Factors, Sweden, Databases, Factual

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Dynamics of life expectancy and life span equality

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