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Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction
Open accessAbstract
Significance: We present a quantitative test of end-Cretaceous extinction scenarios and how these would have affected dinosaur habitats. Combining climate and ecological modeling tools, we demonstrate a substantial detrimental effect on dinosaur habitats caused by an impact winter scenario triggered by the Chicxulub asteroid. We were not able to obtain such an extinction state with several modeling scenarios of Deccan volcanism. We further show that the concomitant prolonged eruption of the Deccan traps might have acted as an ameliorating agent, buffering the negative effects on climate and global ecosystems that the asteroid impact produced at the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary.
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TL;DR
Combining climate and habitat suitability models, this study finds that a Chicxulub asteroid impact winter produced extinction-level loss of non-avian dinosaur habitat, whereas modeled Deccan volcanism scenarios did not. Deccan CO₂ release may instead have buffered post-impact cooling and accelerated ecological recovery.
Key findings
- Solar dimming scenarios reduced dinosaur habitat: 5% dimming left potential habitat at 4% and 24% of pre-K/Pg values at suitability thresholds 0.5 and 0.3, respectively; 10% dimming reduced habitat to 0.4% at the 0.3 threshold; habitat was extinguished at ≥15% dimming.
- Deccan CO₂ warming increased maximum dinosaur habitat suitability by ∼120% at 1,120 ppm CO₂ and ∼97% at 1,680 ppm CO₂ in Ensemble models, and by ∼27% and ∼32% in MaxEnt, so long-term Deccan volcanism alone could not explain complete dinosaur habitat disruption.
- Transient asteroid aerosol experiments produced >34 °C global mean cooling over the 6-y aerosol period, peak land surface cooling of −34.7 °C globally within 5 y, and >85% reduction in land precipitation, causing an extinction-level event for the non-avian dinosaur climatic niche.
- Climate recovery took around 30 y, accelerated by ∼10 y with Deccan-derived CO₂; an ash layer over North America offset ∼4–5 °C of land surface cooling. With active volcanism, maximum habitability increased 152% from preimpact levels after recovery.
Methods
- Used the coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM HadCM3L-M2.1 with end-Cretaceous boundary conditions and 560 ppm CO₂ baseline, running decoupled and transient scenarios including 5–20% solar dimming, 1,120/1,680 ppm CO₂, and 100× Pinatubo aerosol forcing with/without ash and Deccan CO₂.
- Assembled a late Maastrichtian (69–66 Ma) global dinosaur fossil-occurrence dataset from the Paleobiology Database, cleaned to 2,088 entries across nine clades.
- Modeled habitat suitability using Ensemble modeling in biomod2 and MaxEnt, with predictors limited to warmest/coldest annual quartile temperatures and wettest/driest yearly quarter precipitation after removing collinear variables (Pearson’s r ≥ 0.7).
Limitations
- The paper states that chemical processes were not simulated and could further lead to habitat loss; the precise amount of Deccan CO₂ released is unknown; and the pace and magnitude of Deccan volcanism remain uncertain.
- The authors state they do not discount biotic effects or other untested abiotic drivers (e.g., wildfire, acid rain, acidification, halogens, ultraviolet radiation, carbon cycle disruption), and they note that a deep-ocean impact scenario involving stratospheric water vapor was not tested.
- Evident from the text: habitat suitability models rely on analogy with crocodiles and birds and on fossil occurrence data, and the Deccan CO₂ scenarios are described as conservative/extreme and likely unrealistic in amount, so the modeled volcanic buffering effect depends on uncertain forcing assumptions.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At 10% solar dimming, potential habitat is effectively removed (0.4% of pre-K/Pg values) (Fig. 3C) at the lowest habitability threshold (0.3) (Fig. 4).”
§ Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We show that the abiotic impact of Deccan volcanism was not sufficient to cause the extinction of non-avian dinosaurs, while the effects of the impact alone were enough to cause the extinction.”
§ Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Global habitability increases in models simulating long-term CO2 injection due to Deccan volcanism, in case an asteroid impact would not have happened (Fig. 3 D and E): maximum dinosaur habitat suitability increases by ∼120% at 1,120 ppm of CO2 and ∼97% at 1,680 ppm of CO2.”
§ Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction > Results
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
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In the paper
“The 5% solar dimming experiment leads to a substantial, but noncatastrophic, 50% reduction in peak habitability from pre-K/Pg values (SI Appendix, Fig. S18 A and B).”
§ Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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In the paper
“The transient asteroid experiments show an extinction-level event of the non-avian dinosaurs’ climatic niche (Fig. 3 F and H), coincident with the lowest temperatures reached in experimental simulations after asteroid-induced cooling (SI Appendix, Fig. S3).”
§ Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction > Results
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction > Results
“A transient model including both Deccan volcanism and the effect of the Chicxulub impact is shown in F (scenario 11) and G (scenario 12), and with inactive volcanism (H, scenario 13 and I, scenario 14)”
§ Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction > Results
“The effect on the dinosaur-suitable habitats for two transient simulations with Deccan volcanism inactive (F, scenario 11 and G, scenario 12) and active (H, scenario 13 and I, scenario 14)”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction > Discussion
“Our simulations (Tables 1 and 2) suggest that sea surface temperatures would have been reduced for all scenarios”
§ Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction > Results
“| Control | 22.64 | 12.41 | 21.65 | 11.49 | 18.96 | 3.5 | 2.38 | 3.2 | | −5% Sol. (Sc 1) | 16.93 | 12.06 | 14.87 | 1.83 | 11.42 | 3 | 2.05 | 2.75 | | −10% Sol. (Sc 2) | 11.06 | 11.72 | 4.56 | −12.18 | 0.13 | 2.5 | 1.59 | 2.26 | | 2 × CO2 > 4 × CO2 (Sc 5) | 25.11 | 12.56 | 24.47 | 16.2 | 22.28 | 3.58 | 2.49 | 3.29 | | 2 × CO2 > 6 × CO2 (Sc 6) | 27.02 | 12.66 | 26.86 | 20.24 | 25.11 | 3.59 | 2.5 | 3.3 |”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Chiarenza, A. A., Farnsworth, A., Mannion, P. D., Lunt, D. J., Valdes, P. J., Morgan, J. V., & Allison, P. A.
- Affiliations
- University College London (GB)
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1TH Bristol, United Kingdom
- University of Bristol (GB)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Chiarenza, Alfio Alessandro
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2020-06-29
- Volume
- 117
- Issue
- 29
- Pages
- 17084-17093
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC7382232
- OpenAlex
- W3038551147
- Cited by
- 228
- References
- 94
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 32 · 2023: 36 · 2022: 65 · 2021: 29 · 2020: 9
- FWCI
- 18.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P005217/1, NE/P013805/1, NE/K014757/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Paleontology and Stratigraphy of Fossils
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Paleontology and Evolutionary Biology
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Evolution and Paleontology Studies
- Keywords
- end-Cretaceous mass extinction, dinosaur extinction, Chicxulub impact, impact winter, Deccan Traps, Deccan volcanism, Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, climate modeling, ecological modeling, extinction scenarios
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Carbon Dioxide, Climate, Fossils, India, Mexico, Models, Biological, Paleontology, Minor Planets, Volcanic Eruptions, Dinosaurs, History, Ancient, Extinction, Biological
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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