Cited by 287Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk ManagementCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesHealthcare Systems and Public Health

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Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics

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Goldstein, Joshua R., Lee, Ronald D.·2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI 10.1073/pnas.2006392117PMC PMC7486771

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Abstract

Significance: What would a hypothetical 1 million US deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? Life expectancy for 2020 would drop by 2.9 y. Those dying would lose an average of 11.7 y of expected remaining life, while for the general population the loss of remaining life would be 0.2 y for elders (at age 80) and much less at younger ages. Mortality per person would be less than that of the Spanish flu, but closer to that of the opioid and HIV/AIDS epidemics, while far more concentrated in time. The standard valuation of averting 1.75 million deaths would be many trillions of dollars.

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Authors: Goldstein, J. R., & Lee, R. D.
Affiliations: University of California, Berkeley (US)
Corresponding author: Goldstein, Joshua R.
Lee, Ronald D.
ORCID: Goldstein, Joshua R.
Lee, Ronald D.
Venue: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Published: 2020-08-20
Volume: 117
Issue: 36
Pages: 22035-22041
ISSN: 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2006392117
PMC: PMC7486771
OpenAlex: W3017550043
Cited by: 287
References: 16
Citations by year: 2026: 8 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 38 · 2022: 71 · 2021: 94 · 2020: 22
FWCI: 84.79
Type: journal article
Language: en
Update notices: correction (2020-11-02)
Open access: hybrid
doi.org
Licence: cc-by-nc-nd
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Funders: HHS | NIH | National Institute on Aging (5P30AG012839, R01AG058940)
HHS | NIH | Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P2CHD072964)
Topics: Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
Keywords: COVID-19 mortality, age-specific mortality, period life expectancy, years of life lost, HIV/AIDS epidemic, opioid overdose epidemic, 1918 influenza pandemic, all-cause mortality
MeSH terms: Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Demography, Humans, Life Expectancy, Mortality, Pneumonia, Viral, United States, Cost of Illness, Coronavirus Infections, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century, Epidemics, Pandemics

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