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Cited by 287Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk ManagementCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesHealthcare Systems and Public Health

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 16 of the 17 references it cites were found in a registry or an index, and 1 are not checked yet.

Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics

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Goldstein, Joshua R., Lee, Ronald D.·2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.2006392117PMC PMC7486771
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Abstract

Significance: What would a hypothetical 1 million US deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? Life expectancy for 2020 would drop by 2.9 y. Those dying would lose an average of 11.7 y of expected remaining life, while for the general population the loss of remaining life would be 0.2 y for elders (at age 80) and much less at younger ages. Mortality per person would be less than that of the Spanish flu, but closer to that of the opioid and HIV/AIDS epidemics, while far more concentrated in time. The standard valuation of averting 1.75 million deaths would be many trillions of dollars.

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  1. Institute for Clinical and Economic Review 2020-2023 value assessment framework. https://icer-review.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/ICER_2020_2023_VAF_013120-4.pdf. Accessed 31 March 2020.

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Metadata

Authors
Goldstein, J. R., & Lee, R. D.
Affiliations
University of California, Berkeley (US)
Corresponding author
  • Goldstein, Joshua R.
  • Lee, Ronald D.
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2020-08-20
Volume
117
Issue
36
Pages
22035-22041
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.2006392117
PMC
PMC7486771
OpenAlex
W3017550043
Cited by
287
References
16
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 38 · 2022: 71 · 2021: 94 · 2020: 22
FWCI
84.79
Type
journal article
Language
en
Update notices
correction (2020-11-02)
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Funders
  • HHS | NIH | National Institute on Aging (5P30AG012839, R01AG058940)
  • HHS | NIH | Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P2CHD072964)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
Keywords
COVID-19 mortality, age-specific mortality, period life expectancy, years of life lost, HIV/AIDS epidemic, opioid overdose epidemic, 1918 influenza pandemic, all-cause mortality
MeSH terms
Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Demography, Humans, Life Expectancy, Mortality, Pneumonia, Viral, United States, Cost of Illness, Coronavirus Infections, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century, Epidemics, Pandemics

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