Cited by 93SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 ResearchCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesSARS-CoV-2 detection and testing

The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe

Open access
Nadeau, Sarah A., Vaughan, Timothy G., Scire, Jérémie, Huisman, Jana S., Stadler, Tanja·2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Published version of a preprint

Abstract

Significance: We estimate the origin and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe prior to spring 2020 border closures based on viral genome sequences using a phylodynamic model with geographic structure. We confirm that the predominant European outbreak most likely started in Italy and spread from there. This outbreak was probably seeded by a transmission event in either Hubei, China or Germany. In particular, we find that before the first border closures in Europe, the rate of new cases occurring from within-country transmission was within or exceeded the estimated bounds on the rate of new migration cases.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1073/pnas.2012008118

Cites

34 of 34 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Nadeau, S. A., Vaughan, T. G., Scire, J., Huisman, J. S., & Stadler, T.
Affiliations
SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics (CH)
Corresponding author
Stadler, Tanja
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published
2021-02-10
Volume
118
Issue
9
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
OpenAlex
W3128213721
Cited by
93
References
34
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 32 · 2020: 2
FWCI
6.08
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • medRxiv (acceptedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • ETH Zürich Research Collection
Funders
Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (31CA30_196267)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
Keywords
SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 pandemic, viral migration, phylodynamics, viral genome sequence, transmission trees, border closures, Italy, Hubei Province, Germany
MeSH terms
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Europe, Humans, Genome, Viral, Phylogeography

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review