Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Geneva, Switzerland (SEROCoV-POP): a population-based study
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Background Assessing the burden of COVID-19 on the basis of medically attended case numbers is suboptimal given its reliance on testing strategy, changing case definitions, and disease presentation. Population-based serosurveys measuring anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (anti-SARS-CoV-2) antibodies provide one method for estimating infection rates and monitoring the progression of the epidemic. Here, we estimate weekly seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the population of Geneva, Switzerland, during the epidemic. Methods The SEROCoV-POP study is a population-based study of former participants of the Bus Santé study and their household members. We planned a series of 12 consecutive weekly serosurveys among randomly selected participants from a previous population-representative survey, and their household members aged 5 years and older. We tested each participant for anti-SARS-CoV-2-IgG antibodies using a commercially available ELISA. We estimated seroprevalence using a Bayesian logistic regression model taking into account test performance and adjusting for the age and sex of Geneva's population. Here we present results from the first 5 weeks of the study. Findings Between April 6 and May 9, 2020, we enrolled 2766 participants from 1339 households, with a demographic distribution similar to that of the canton of Geneva. In the first week, we estimated a seroprevalence of 4·8% (95% CI 2·4-8·0, n=341). The estimate increased to 8·5% (5·9-11·4, n=469) in the second week, to 10·9% (7·9-14·4, n=577) in the third week, 6·6% (4·3-9·4, n=604) in the fourth week, and 10·8% (8·2-13·9, n=775) in the fifth week. Individuals aged 5-9 years (relative risk [RR] 0·32 [95% CI 0·11-0·63]) and those older than 65 years (RR 0·50 [0·28-0·78]) had a significantly lower risk of being seropositive than those aged 20-49 years. After accounting for the time to seroconversion, we estimated that for every reported confirmed case, there were 11·6 infections in the community. Interpretation These results suggest that most of the population of Geneva remained uninfected during this wave of the pandemic, despite the high prevalence of COVID-19 in the region (5000 reported clinical cases over <2·5 months in the population of half a million people). Assuming that the presence of IgG antibodies is associated with immunity, these results highlight that the epidemic is far from coming to an end by means of fewer susceptible people in the population. Further, a significantly lower seroprevalence was observed for children aged 5-9 years and adults older than 65 years, compared with those aged 10-64 years. These results will inform countries considering the easing of restrictions aimed at curbing transmission. Funding Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, Swiss School of Public Health (Corona Immunitas research program), Fondation de Bienfaisance du Groupe Pictet, Fondation Ancrage, Fondation Privée des Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève, and Center for Emerging Viral Diseases.
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As the epidemic curve declined in Geneva, seroprevalence rose over 3 weeks from 4.8 to 10.9%.
“As the epidemic curve declined in Geneva, seroprevalence rose over 3 weeks from 4.8 to 10.9% (10).”
From Seroprevalence of anti–SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Kenyan blood donors (2021) · cites this paper as [10]
A substantial proportion (43%) of the Kenyan population is outside the age range (15 to 64 years) sampled in this study, and the seroprevalence in children <15 years and adults >65 years is often lower; thus the blood donor estimate may be higher than the estimate for the population as a whole.
“A substantial proportion (43%) of the population of Kenya is outside the age range (15 to 64 years) sampled in this study, and the seroprevalence in children <15 years and adults >65 years is often lower (9, 10); our estimate for blood donors may be higher than the estimate for the population as a whole.”
From Seroprevalence of anti–SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Kenyan blood donors (2021) · cites this paper as [10]
Seroprevalence did not vary significantly by sex, consistent with other studies.
“Consistent with other studies, seroprevalence did not vary significantly by sex (9, 10, 16); however, it peaked in 35- to 44-year-olds and was lowest for those ≥45 years, which is also consistent with existing reports in which seroprevalence was found to be lower in older adults (9, 10).”
From Seroprevalence of anti–SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Kenyan blood donors (2021) · cites this paper as [10]
Seroprevalence peaked in 35- to 44-year-olds and was lowest for those ≥45 years, consistent with existing reports of lower seroprevalence in older adults.
“it peaked in 35- to 44-year-olds and was lowest for those ≥45 years, which is also consistent with existing reports in which seroprevalence was found to be lower in older adults (9, 10).”
From Seroprevalence of anti–SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Kenyan blood donors (2021) · cites this paper as [10]
SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in this study is comparable with estimates from large population-based serosurveys in China, Switzerland, Spain, and the United States after the initial epidemic peak and after many tens of thousands of deaths.
“SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in our study is comparable with estimates from large population-based serosurveys in China, Switzerland, Spain, and the United States after the initial epidemic peak and after many tens of thousands of deaths (9, 10, 17, 18).”
From Seroprevalence of anti–SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Kenyan blood donors (2021) · cites this paper as [10]
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- Authors
- Stringhini, S., Wisniak, A., Piumatti, G., Azman, A. S., Lauer, S. A., Baysson, H., De Ridder, D., Petrovic, D., Schrempft, S., Marcus, K., Yerly, S., Arm Vernez, I., Keiser, O., Hurst, S., Posfay-Barbe, K. M., Trono, D., Pittet, D., Gétaz, L., Chappuis, F., Eckerle, I., Vuilleumier, N., Meyer, B., Flahault, A., Kaiser, L., & Guessous, I.
- Affiliations
- University of Geneva (CH)
- University Hospital of Geneva (CH)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (CH)
- World Health Organization (CH)
- Corresponding author
- Stringhini, Silvia
- ORCID
- Stringhini, Silvia
- Wisniak, Ania
- Piumatti, Giovanni
- Azman, Andrew S
- Lauer, Stephen A
- Baysson, Hélène
- Schrempft, Stephanie
- Marcus, Kailing
- Yerly, Sabine
- Keiser, Olivia
- Hurst, Samia
- Posfay-Barbe, Klara M
- Trono, Didier
- Pittet, Didier
- Gétaz, Laurent
- Chappuis, François
- Eckerle, Isabella
- Vuilleumier, Nicolas
- Meyer, Benjamin
- Flahault, Antoine
- Kaiser, Laurent
- Guessous, Idris
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-08
- Volume
- 396
- Issue
- 10247
- Pages
- 313-319
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC7289564
- OpenAlex
- W3035189381
- Cited by
- 990
- References
- 15
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 39 · 2023: 95 · 2022: 154 · 2021: 415 · 2020: 246
- FWCI
- 29.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- SERVAL (Université de Lausanne) (publishedVersion)
- Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (publishedVersion)
- Infoscience (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- IRIS (submittedVersion)
- Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Bundesamt für Gesundheit
- Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01AI135115)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, seroprevalence, anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG, household transmission, Geneva, age and sex differences in infection, SARS-CoV-2 infection rates, epidemic monitoring, children and elderly
- MeSH terms
- Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Antibodies, Viral, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Immunoglobulin G, Male, Middle Aged, Pneumonia, Viral, Switzerland, Prevalence, Seroepidemiologic Studies, Age Distribution, Sex Distribution, Coronavirus Infections, Young Adult, Pandemics
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