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Cited by 245Infection Control and VentilationCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 impact on air quality

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 49 of the 49 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Mechanistic transmission modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship demonstrates the importance of aerosol transmission

Open access
Azimi, Parham, Keshavarz, Zahra, Cedeno Laurent, Jose Guillermo, Stephens, Brent, Allen, Joseph G.·2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.2015482118PMC PMC7923347

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Abstract

Significance: We find that airborne transmission likely accounted for >50% of disease transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which includes inhalation of aerosols during close contact as well as longer range. These findings underscore the importance of implementing public health measures that target the control of inhalation of aerosols in addition to ongoing measures targeting control of large-droplet and fomite transmission, not only aboard cruise ships but in other indoor environments as well. Guidance from health organizations should include a greater emphasis on controls for reducing spread by airborne transmission. Last, although our work is based on a cruise ship outbreak of COVID-19, the model approach can be applied to other indoor environments and other infectious diseases.

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Crossref · 10.1073/pnas.2015482118

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Figures

Fig. 1. Reported (actual) and modeled (predicted) cumulative COVID-19 cases aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship from January 20 to February 24, 2020. Modeled cases are from 132 model scenarios that met acceptable criteria (R2 > 0.95 for cumulative daily cases and R2 > 0 for daily cases).
Fig. 1. Reported (actual) and modeled (predicted) cumulative COVID-19 cases aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship from January 20 to February 24, 2020. Modeled cases are from 132 model scenarios that met acceptable criteria (R2 > 0.95 for cumulative daily cases and R2 > 0 for daily cases).CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 2. Estimates of the contributions of transmission modes (A) and viral sources (B) to infected cases aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship over the entirety of the simulation period.
Fig. 2. Estimates of the contributions of transmission modes (A) and viral sources (B) to infected cases aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship over the entirety of the simulation period.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 3. Mean (SD) estimates of (A) the proportion of cases and (B) the effective reproduction number before and after passenger quarantine.
Fig. 3. Mean (SD) estimates of (A) the proportion of cases and (B) the effective reproduction number before and after passenger quarantine.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 4. Estimates of the contribution of multiple transmission modes to infected cases aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship over the entirety of the simulation period as well as before and after quarantine measures.
Fig. 4. Estimates of the contribution of multiple transmission modes to infected cases aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship over the entirety of the simulation period as well as before and after quarantine measures.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 5. Estimates of the contribution of droplets and aerosols to infected cases aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship over the entirety of the simulation period as well as before and after quarantine measures.
Fig. 5. Estimates of the contribution of droplets and aerosols to infected cases aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship over the entirety of the simulation period as well as before and after quarantine measures.CC BY · PubMed Central

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Metadata

Authors
Azimi, P., Keshavarz, Z., Cedeno Laurent, J. G., Stephens, B., & Allen, J. G.
Affiliations
  • Harvard University (US)
  • Environmental Health Department, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115;
  • Illinois Institute of Technology (US)
Corresponding author
  • Azimi, Parham
  • Allen, Joseph G.
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2021-02-03
Volume
118
Issue
8
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.2015482118
PMC
PMC7923347
OpenAlex
W3126546596
Cited by
245
References
46
Citations by year
2026: 12 · 2025: 31 · 2024: 32 · 2023: 38 · 2022: 72 · 2021: 52
FWCI
31.49
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Infection Control and Ventilation
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › COVID-19 impact on air quality
Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, airborne transmission, respiratory droplets, fomite transmission, long-range transmission, cruise ships, transmission modelling, ventilation, air recirculation
MeSH terms
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Aerosols, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Quarantine, Ships

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