The impact of tracking by attainment on pupil self-confidence over time: demonstrating the accumulative impact of self-fulfilling prophecy
Open accessAbstract
The impact of self-fulfilling prophecy in education, and of attainment grouping on pupil self-perception, remain topics of longstanding debate, with important consequences for social in/justice. Focusing on self-confidence, this article draws on survey responses from 9,059 12-13 year olds who were tracked by subject (‘setting’). They provided survey responses when placed in ‘ability’ sets at the start of their secondary schooling, and again late the following year; enabling analysis of impact over time. After controlling for prior attainment, the gap in general self-confidence between students in the top and bottom sets for mathematics is shown to widen over time, and high set students’ self-confidence in English had also grown significantly; although there was not further widening in the cases of self-confidence in mathematics or in general self-confidence between students in the top and bottom sets for English. Implications of these findings for interventions directed at addressing educational disadvantage are discussed.
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The process triggers students to move from lower performing or remedial academic tracks to higher performing tracks, leading to increased self-confidence and more effective preparation for admission to college.
“This in turn triggers students to move from lower performing or remedial academic tracks to higher performing tracks, leading to increased self-confidence (Francis et al., 2020) and more effective preparation for admission to college (Goyer et al., 2017).”
From Tackling Educational Inequalities with Social Psychology: Identities, Contexts, and Interventions (2021) · cites this paper as Francis et al., 2020
The Findings report that pupils placed in top sets tended to have higher self-confidence over two years than those in middle sets, while pupils in bottom sets tended to have lower self-confidence. The methods passage under “Table 1 here” records movement between sets in either direction, but the paper does not show that a process triggered moves from lower to higher tracks or that such moves increased confidence. The college-preparation clause is attributed to Goyer et al., not Francis et al. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSetting tends to have negative effects on attainment and confidence.
“Setting tends to have negative effects on attainment and confidence (Education Endowment Foundation, 2015;Francis et al., 2017Francis et al., , 2020))”
From Tackling Educational Inequalities with Social Psychology: Identities, Contexts, and Interventions (2021) · cites this paper as Francis et al., 2020
The Introduction reports that pupils in low attainment groups make poorer educational progress than peers in higher groups, and the Findings report decreased self-confidence in the lowest sets. The claim omits that these negative outcomes concern pupils in lower sets; the paper also reports increased confidence in the highest sets. The cited paper does not establish a negative effect of setting on pupils overall. (LLM, conf=0.85)
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“B. Francis et al. (2020) suggested that a snowball prophecy, wherein the process of labeling by way of tracking creates a cumulative effect that is reinforced and exacerbated over time, leads to long-lasting, systemically inequitable practices.”
Campos, D., Ding, Y., Goian, A.-M., Koskinen, A., Lokken, J., Mannsaaker, T., Munkácsy, B., Papadopoulos, D., Patsis, P., Rolfe, V., et al. (2025) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/m4r6x_v1
Archwilio Arferion Grwpio Dysgwyr mewn Ystafelloedd Dosbarth yng Nghymru
Greenway, C. W., Conn, C., Knight, C., Thomas, D. V., & Formby, L. K. (2025) · Cylchgrawn Addysg Cymru / Wales Journal of Education · doi:10.16922/wje.27.1.4cym
Hennessy, A. (2025) · Research in Post-Compulsory Education · doi:10.1080/13596748.2025.2502251
“After controlling for prior attainment, the gap in general self-confidence was found to widen over two years for top and bottom maths sets; although, this was not seen for top and bottom English sets (Francis et al. 2020).”
Baidoo-Anu, D., & DeLuca, C. (2025) · Education Inquiry · doi:10.1080/20004508.2025.2519831
Interrogating Tracked mathematics Teacher Practices: A Logistic Regression Analysis
Edosomwan, K., & Sanders, M. (2025) · Journal of Urban Mathematics Education · doi:10.21423/jume-v18i1a532
Aspiration and Wrongful Harm: Why the State Owes a Duty to Cultivate Hope
Osben, N. (2025) · Journal of Human Development and Capabilities · doi:10.1080/19452829.2025.2568521
“Furthermore, the practice of early setting and streaming, which disproportionately places disadvantaged students in lower ability groups, has been shown to dampen motivation and reduce long-term attainment (Francis et al. 2020).”
Fishman, S. H., & Ervin, M. E. (2025) · Research in Social Stratification and Mobility · doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2025.101109
Outram, E. A. (2025) · British Educational Research Journal · doi:10.1002/berj.70077
Sun, Y., Zhang, R., & Huang, K. (2026) · European Journal of Education · doi:10.1111/ejed.70539
Regrouper les élèves par niveau de compétences. Une synthèse de la littérature
Roques, N. (2025) · Revue française de pédagogie · doi:10.4000/168v1
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“…level (Delaney et al., 2023; Gilleece et al., 2020; OECD, 2023), but are also embedded in everyday classroom practices such as ability grouping and streaming, as well as teacher expectations and school culture (Francis et al., 2017, 2020; Lavrijsen & Nicaise, 2015; Steenbergen-Hu et al., 2016).”
- Authors
- Francis, B., Craig, N., Hodgen, J., Taylor, B., Tereshchenko, A., Connolly, P., & Archer, L.
- Affiliations
- University College London (GB)
- Queen's University Belfast (GB)
- Lancaster University (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Francis, Becky
- ORCID
- Venue
- British Journal of Sociology of Education
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2020-06-08
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 626-642
- ISSN
- 0142-5692 (ISSN-L)
- 1465-3346
- OpenAlex
- W3033096012
- Cited by
- 56
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 2
- FWCI
- 9.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- eprints.lancs.ac.uk
- Locations
- British Journal of Sociology of Education (publishedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (acceptedVersion)
- Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (submittedVersion)
- Ulster University Research Portal (Ulster University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Education, Achievement, and Giftedness
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Sociology and Education Studies
- Keywords
- self-fulfilling prophecy, ability grouping, educational disadvantage, high school students, student self-confidence in mathematics, social justice in education
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