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Cited by 1,046

The DOI matches its Crossref record.

Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects:Error or Lie?

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Holm, Mette Skamris, Buhl, Soren·2002·Journal of the American Planning Association
DOI 10.1080/01944360208976273
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Abstract

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing different project types, geographical regions, and historical periods, it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost estimates used to decide whether such projects should be built are highly and systematically misleading. Underestimation cannot be explained by error and is best explained by strategic misrepresentation, that is, lying. The policy implications are clear: legislators, administrators, investors, media representatives, and members of the public who value honest numbers should not trust cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts.

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Metadata

Authors
Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M. S., & Buhl, S.
Venue
Journal of the American Planning Association
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Published
2002-09-30
Volume
68
Issue
3
Pages
279-295
ISSN
  • 0194-4363 (ISSN-L)
  • 1939-0130
DOI
10.1080/01944360208976273
OpenAlex
W3102663523
Cited by
1,046
References
0
FWCI
17.87
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.