Police Officers on Drug Corners in Philadelphia, Drug Crime, and Violent Crime: Intended, Diffusion, and Displacement Impacts
Abstract
On May 1, 2002, the Philadelphia Police Department launched Operation Safe Streets, stationing officers at 214 of the highest drug activity locations in the city 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Interrupted time series (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) models on weekly data isolated citywide and local program impacts on all violent crimes, murder, and reported drug crimes. Results showed no significant impacts on citywide weekly counts for drug crimes, homicides, or all violent crimes. Geographically focused analyses showed significant localized intervention impacts for both violent and drug crimes. Analyses of high‐drug‐activity non‐intervention sites suggest: the program impacts seen were not an artifact of history or local history; significant spatial diffusion of preventive benefits for violent crime; and probably significant spatial displacement for drug crime. Stationary targeted drug‐enforcement interventions like Operation Safe Streets may differentially affect the locational selection processes behind violent crime versus drug crime.
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The Philadelphia Drug Corners Crackdowns study found statistically significant reductions in violent crime incidents and drug crime incidents in treatment areas, with no statistically significant changes in those incidents in comparison areas.
“Statistically significant reductions in violent crime incidents and drug crime incidents in treatment areas; no statistically significant changes in violent crime incidents and drug crime incidents in comparison areas”
From Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime (2019) · cites this paper as Lawton et al. (2005)
No threats to the integrity of the treatment were reported in the Philadelphia Drug Corners Crackdowns study.
“No threats to the integrity of the treatment reported”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Lawton, Taylor, and Luongo (2005)
Analyses of the adjoining buffer zones in the Philadelphia Operation Safe Streets evaluation suggested a statistically-significant reduction, or diffusion of benefits, for violent crime incidents.
“The analyses of the adjoining buffer zones suggested a statistically-significant reduction, or diffusion of benefits, for violent crime incidents.”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Lawton, Taylor, and Luongo 2005
The Philadelphia Operation Safe Streets impact analysis revealed that the intervention was associated with statistically-significant reductions in violent crime incidents and drug crime incidents at the treatment areas; no significant intervention time period changes in outcomes were noted at the comparison areas.
“The impact analysis revealed that the Operation Safe Streets intervention was associated with statistically-significant reductions in violent crime incidents and drug crime incidents at the treatment areas; no significant intervention time period changes in outcomes were noted at the comparison areas.”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Lawton, Taylor, and Luongo 2005
The results of the analyses of drug crime incident trends in the adjoining buffer zones in the Philadelphia Operation Safe Streets evaluation were mixed.
“The results of the analyses of drug crime incident trends in the adjoining buffer zones were mixed, however.”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Lawton, Taylor, and Luongo 2005
Depending on the specification of the ARIMA model, the Philadelphia Operation Safe Streets intervention either generated a displacement effect (1,0,1) or a diffusion effect (1,0,0) for drug crime incidents in adjoining buffer zones.
“Depending on the specification of the ARIMA model, the intervention either generated a displacement effect (1,0,1) or a diffusion effect (1,0,0).”
From Hot spots policing effects on crime (2012) · cites this paper as Lawton, Taylor, and Luongo 2005
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The Effects of Hot Spots Policing on Crime: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
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“Lawton, Taylor, and Luongo (2005) concluded similar results in their evaluation of Operation Safe Streets in Philadelphia.”
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“The city has long suffered problems of drug corners (Lawton et al. , 2005), and shootings and retaliatory violence (Ratcliffe and Rengert, 2008; Wyant et al. , 2012).”
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“Evaluations of hot spot policing interventions have shown that they can lead to significant decreases in crimes against property [24,25], violent assaults [6,26], drug offences [27] and robbery [3,5].”
BackgroundProblem-Oriented Policing in Suburban Low-Income Housing: A Quasi-Experiment
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“Aside from Lawton et al. (2005) when they previously evaluated Safe Streets, only one commonly cited hot spots policing evaluation has focused on an intervention which treated hundreds of hot spots sites.”
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BackgroundInfluentialAn Evaluation of a Multiyear Gun Buy-Back Programme: Re-Examining the Impact on Violent Crimes
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BackgroundCalibrating Police Activity Across Hot Spot and Non-Hot Spot Areas
Koper, C. S., Wu, X., & Lum, C. M. (2021) · Police Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1098611121995809 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
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ResultDécary-Hêtu, D., Faubert, C., Chopin, J., Malm, A., Ratcliffe, J. H., & Dupont, B. (2023) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12642 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Hot Spots Across the Metropolis: Evaluating Hot Spots Directed Patrol at City and Suburban Locations
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“For instance, studies have found support for the impact of directed patrol (Lawton, Taylor, & Luongo, 2005; Telep, Mitchel, & Weisburd, 2014), foot patrols (Novak, Fox, Carr, & Spade, 2016; Ratcliffe, Taniguchi, Groff, & Wood, 2011), crackdowns (Braga & Bond, 2008), problem-oriented policing (Braga…”
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“However, several subsequent studies on ‘crackdowns’ in drug markets found no statistically significant impact on violent crime (Mazerolle, Soole, and Rombouts 2006; Lawton et al. 2005).”
BackgroundLaw Enforcement and Disruption of Offline and Online Activities: A Review of Contemporary Challenges
Faubert, C., Décary-Hêtu, D., Malm, A. E., Ratcliffe, J. H., & Dupont, B. (2021) · Crime and justice in digital society · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-60527-8_19 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Hot Spots Policing: Theoretical Perspectives, Scientific Evidence, and Proper Implementation
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Law Enforcement in the Criminal Justice System
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Self-citationA Randomized Controlled Trial of a Hot Spots Policing Initiative in Suburban and Rural Areas
Haberman, C. P., O’Guinn, B. J., McGrath, M., Kumavat, A. V., & Orue, A. (2025) · Justice Evaluation Journal · doi:10.1080/24751979.2025.2475352 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“…(Kelling et al., 1974), numerous studies have found that police presence implemented in different ways (e.g., standing on drug corners, patrolling in cars, or by foot) can reduce crime in hot spots (Haberman & Stiver, 2019; Lawton et al., 2005; Novak et al., 2016; Ratcliffe et al., 2011).”
Lawrence, D. S. (2023) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12636 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
An evaluation of a hot spot policing programme in four Argentinian cities
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“…shown that hot spot policing can significantly decrease robberies (Chainey et al., 2020; Sherman and Weisburd, 1995), violent crime (Ratcliffe et al., 2011; Rosenfeld et al., 2014), crimes against property (Andresen and Lau, 2013; Weisburd and Green, 1995) and drug offences (Lawton et al., 2005).”
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“…theory suggests, and some studies have confirmed, that removing key players involved in violence from a neighborhood can create opportunities for new rivalries or spur street groups to expand their territories into new areas not heavily policed (Decker and Pyrooz 2015; Lawton et al. 2005).”
BackgroundPublic-Private Partnerships: Exploring Perceptions and Efficacy of Community Security Patrols
Holmes, S., Wolf, R., & Baker, T. (2022) · Journal of Applied Security Research · doi:10.1080/19361610.2022.2086782 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“Regardless, it identified that increased police presence might be effective at reducing violent crime, at least in some areas (Lawton et al., 2005).”
Tackling Drug-Lords in a Nascent Market: Raids and Drug Crime in Uruguay
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“…short-term effects, or non-effects of crackdowns on crime (see Braga & Bond, 2008; Caulkins et al., 1993; Cohen et al., 2003; Kim et al., 2019; Lawton et al., 2005; Mazerolle et al., 2006; Moeller & Hesse, 2013; Novak et al., 1999; Nunn et al., 2006; Phillips et al., 2016; Shepard & Blackley,…”
BackgroundPROTOCOL: Increased Police Patrol Presence Effects on Crime and Disorder
Telep, C. W., Weisburd, D. L., Wire, S. E., & Farrington, D. P. (2016) · Campbell Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/cl2.159 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
A partial test of the ecological theory
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Telep, C. W., Varriale, J., Gibbs, J. C., Na, C.-M., & Bartholomew, B. (2008) · Police Practice and Research · doi:10.1080/15614260802551610 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Connected to the end: the deterrence/identity continuum in online criminal networks
Faubert, C., Décary-Hêtu, D., Ratcliffe, J. H., Dupont, B., & Malm, A. (2024) · Crime, law and social change · doi:10.1007/s10611-024-10182-6 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“They would either displace illicit drug activities (Lawton et al., 2005; Mazerolle et al., 2007 ) or see activities resort back to their initial levels quickly after police resources are withdrawn from the criminogenic settings they targeted (Cohen et al., 2003; Sherman et al., 1995 ).”
Hotspotting sepsis: applying analytic tools from other disciplines to eliminate disparities.
Holder, A., Wallace, D. J., & Martin, G. (2016) · Annals of Translational Medicine · doi:10.21037/atm.2016.07.19 · Cited by 2
“The use of such mapping has been shown to decrease drug-related and violent crime in at least one major American city (14).”
BackgroundPatterns of temporal diffusion of crime in mexico
Santos-Reyes, D., & Santos-Reyes, J. (2012) · doi:10.2495/safe-v2-n1-54-68 · Cited by 2
“[5] use time series models to measure the effectiveness of a programme called ‘Safe Streets’ during its fi rst 18 weeks of operation in Philadelphia, USA.”
MethodArt theft, art vandalism, and guardianship in U.S. art institutions.
Salomon, K. L. (2018) · doi:10.18297/etd/3028 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“Steven Layne (2009), museum security expert, supports the belief that artwork is not primarily stolen from exhibition cases but rather from storage spaces and while in transit.”
BackgroundIntegrating safety, order and duty of care in public space foot patrols
Prenzler, T., Cairns, N., Moir, E., Rayment-McHugh, S., & Wilson, E. (2025) · Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism · doi:10.1080/18335330.2025.2547609 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“Deterrence is often assumed to be the primary means, and recent research based on interviews with justice-involved young people supports the idea of a likely deterrent effect from increasing the number of officers stationed at crime hot spots (Bucci, 2024; see also Lawton, Taylor, & Luongo, 2005).”
Hot spot policing in two stages: informal and formal programs in buffalo
Phillips, S. W., & Kim, D.-Y. (2024) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-024-09620-1 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“A few studies operationalized hot spot locations based on drug crimes (Lawton et al., 2005; Sherman & Rogan, 1995).”
Zhao, J., & Zhang, Y. (2023) · Police Quarterly · doi:10.1177/10986111221092947 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“Many of the intervention programs studied were supported by external grant funding received from federal, state, or local governments (e.g., Lawton et al., 2005).”
BackgroundPolice crackdowns in Mexico City
Massa, R., & Fondevila, G. (2019) · Policing: An International Journal · doi:10.1108/pijpsm-11-2018-0165 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Taylor, R., Lawton, B., & Ellen, J. (2014) · doi:10.22158/wjssr.v1n2p110 · Cited by 1
Self-citationLatino Nativity Variations Link to Street Violence in Drug Markets
Cho, J. Y. (2018) · Crime & Delinquency · doi:10.1177/0011128717750394 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Doran, B. J., & Burgess, M. B. (2011) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-5647-7_4 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Exploratory Space–Time Analysis of Burglary Patterns
Rey, S. J., Mack, E. A., & Koschinsky, J. (2011) · Journal of Quantitative Criminology · doi:10.1007/s10940-011-9151-9 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Policing Schools: Examining the Impact of Place Management Activities on School Violence
Swartz, K., Osborne, D. L., Dawson‐Edwards, C., & Higgins, G. E. (2015) · American Journal of Criminal Justice · doi:10.1007/s12103-015-9306-6
Frogner, L., Andershed, H., Lindberg, O., & Johansson, M. (2013) · European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research · doi:10.1007/s10610-013-9197-3 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“In a Philadelphia study officers were placed in hot spots 24 h a day 7 days a week for 4 months as a mean to prevent drug-related and violent crimes (Lawton et al. 2005).”
BackgroundA partial test of the impact of a casino on neighborhood crime
Johnson, L. T., & Ratcliffe, J. (2017) · Security Journal · doi:10.1057/sj.2014.28
“Crime reduction evaluations of Camden, New Jersey (Ratcliffe and Breen, 2011) and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (Lawton et al, 2005) hot spots policing strategies not only found decreases in target area crime but also a diffusion of benefits, whereby surrounding areas not the target of any additional prevention also expe…”
BackgroundContemporary police strategies of crime control in U.S. and China: a comparative study
Wang, L., & Zhao, J. (2016) · Crime, law and social change · doi:10.1007/s10611-016-9641-7
Drug Trading Locations and Criminogenic Change in a Post-Soviet City
Acus, A., & Kraniauskas, L. (2025) · Sociologija : Mintis ir Veiksmas · doi:10.15388/socmintvei.2025.56.2
“…reason, it has been widely used in crime spatial studies for more than two decades (Brantingham and Brantingham 1995b, 2003; Santiago et al. 2003; Lawton et al. 2005; Newton et al. 2004; Groff 2011; Rengert et al. 2005; Eck et al. 2005; McCord and Ratcliffe 2007; Eismontaitė and Beconytė 2012).”
Biasi, A. D., Richter, F., Henderson, M., & Kagawa, R. M. C. (2025) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-025-09687-4
Sadler, B. M., Mait, J., Choi, K. K., Nasrabadi, N., Smith, G. L., Pulskamp, J., Sánchez, L. M., Potrepka, D., Proie, R., Ivanov, T., et al. (2018) · Bethlehem University Journal · doi:10.1016/s0140-7007(19)30016-7
Fukushima, I. S. F. (2021) · doi:10.11606/d.96.2021.tde-24092021-152217
“These alternatives include the use of structural time-series models (Harvey and Durbin, 1986) and autoregressive models (Lawton et al., 2005), and are common in the quantitative criminology literature (Ashby, 2020; Payne et al.”
MethodRatcliffe, J. H., & Sorg, E. T. (2017) · SpringerBriefs in criminology · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-65247-4_3
- Authors
- Lawton, B. A., Taylor, R. B., & Luongo, A. J.
- Affiliations
- Temple University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lawton, Brian A.
- Venue
- Justice Quarterly
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2005-12-01
- Volume
- 22
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 427-451
- ISSN
- 0741-8825 (ISSN-L)
- 1745-9109
- OpenAlex
- W2101047345
- Cited by
- 115
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2025: 5 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 15
- FWCI
- 7.29
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Justice Quarterly (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Innovative Research Group Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance
- Keywords
- drug offenses, violent crime, homicide, spatial displacement, Philadelphia Police Department, crime prevention programs
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