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Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change

Silva, Raquel A, West, J Jason, Zhang, Yuqiang, Anenberg, Susan C, Lamarque, Jean-François, Shindell, Drew T, Collins, William J, Dalsoren, Stig, Faluvegi, Greg, Folberth, Gerd, Horowitz, Larry W, Nagashima, Tatsuya, Naik, Vaishali, Rumbold, Steven, Skeie, Ragnhild, Sudo, Kengo, Takemura, Toshihiko, Bergmann, Daniel, Cameron-Smith, Philip, Cionni, Irene, Doherty, Ruth M, Eyring, Veronika, Josse, Beatrice, MacKenzie, I A, Plummer, David, Righi, Mattia, Stevenson, David S, Strode, Sarah, Szopa, Sophie, Zeng, Guang·2013·Environmental Research Letters
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005
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Figure 1 Estimates of the current global burden of anthropogenic ozone (2000-1850) on respiratory mortality from 14 models and the multi-model average, without and with a low-concentration threshold (33.3 ppb). Uncertainty for individual models reflects only the 95% confidence intervals on the CRF (Jerrett et al 2009). Uncertainty for the multi-model average is a 95% CI including uncertainty in the CRF and across models. See supporting information (table S1 available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/8/034005/ mmedia) for summary information on each model.
Figure 1 Estimates of the current global burden of anthropogenic ozone (2000-1850) on respiratory mortality from 14 models and the multi-model average, without and with a low-concentration threshold (33.3 ppb). Uncertainty for individual models reflects only the 95% confidence intervals on the CRF (Jerrett et al 2009). Uncertainty for the multi-model average is a 95% CI including uncertainty in the CRF and across models. See supporting information (table S1 available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/8/034005/ mmedia) for summary information on each model.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 2 Estimates of the current global burden of anthropogenic PM2 : 5 (2000-1850) on CPD and LC mortality with no low-concentration threshold, for PM2 : 5 calculated as a sum of species for 6 models (dark blue), and for PM2 : 5 as reported by 4 models (dark green). The corresponding estimates with a low-concentration threshold (5 : 8 g m 3 ) are shown for PM2 : 5 calculated as a sum of species (light blue), and for reported PM2 : 5 (light green). Uncertainty for individual models reflects only the 95% confidence intervals on the CRF (Krewski et al 2009). Uncertainty for the multi-model average is a 95% CI including uncertainty in the CRF and across models.
Figure 2 Estimates of the current global burden of anthropogenic PM2 : 5 (2000-1850) on CPD and LC mortality with no low-concentration threshold, for PM2 : 5 calculated as a sum of species for 6 models (dark blue), and for PM2 : 5 as reported by 4 models (dark green). The corresponding estimates with a low-concentration threshold (5 : 8 g m 3 ) are shown for PM2 : 5 calculated as a sum of species (light blue), and for reported PM2 : 5 (light green). Uncertainty for individual models reflects only the 95% confidence intervals on the CRF (Krewski et al 2009). Uncertainty for the multi-model average is a 95% CI including uncertainty in the CRF and across models.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 3 Current premature mortality due to anthropogenic air pollution (2000-1850), in deaths yr 1 . 1000 km 2 / 1 , for the multi-model mean in each grid cell, for (top) ozone (respiratory mortality) for 14 models and (bottom) PM2 : 5 (CPD C LC) for the sum of species for 6 models.
Figure 3 Current premature mortality due to anthropogenic air pollution (2000-1850), in deaths yr 1 . 1000 km 2 / 1 , for the multi-model mean in each grid cell, for (top) ozone (respiratory mortality) for 14 models and (bottom) PM2 : 5 (CPD C LC) for the sum of species for 6 models.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 4 Estimates of the current global ozone respiratory mortality attributed to past climate change (2000-Em2000Cl1850), for 9 models and the multi-model average, with and without a low-concentration threshold (33.3 ppb). Uncertainty for individual models reflects only the 95% confidence intervals on the CRF (Jerrett et al 2009). Uncertainty for the multi-model average is a 95% CI including uncertainty in the CRF and across models.
Figure 4 Estimates of the current global ozone respiratory mortality attributed to past climate change (2000-Em2000Cl1850), for 9 models and the multi-model average, with and without a low-concentration threshold (33.3 ppb). Uncertainty for individual models reflects only the 95% confidence intervals on the CRF (Jerrett et al 2009). Uncertainty for the multi-model average is a 95% CI including uncertainty in the CRF and across models.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 5 Premature mortality attributable to past climate change (2000-Em2000Cl1850), in deaths yr 1 . 1000 km 2 / 1 , for the multi-model mean in each grid cell, for (top) ozone (respiratory mortality) for 9 models and (bottom) PM2 : 5 (CPD C LC mortality) for the sum of species for 5 models.
Figure 5 Premature mortality attributable to past climate change (2000-Em2000Cl1850), in deaths yr 1 . 1000 km 2 / 1 , for the multi-model mean in each grid cell, for (top) ozone (respiratory mortality) for 9 models and (bottom) PM2 : 5 (CPD C LC mortality) for the sum of species for 5 models.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 6 The number of models that show a positive change in concentration in each grid cell due to past climate change (2000-Em2000Cl1850), for (top) the 6-month ozone season average of 1-h daily maximum ozone (of 9 models total), and (bottom) annual average PM2 : 5 calculated as a sum of species (5 models).
Figure 6 The number of models that show a positive change in concentration in each grid cell due to past climate change (2000-Em2000Cl1850), for (top) the 6-month ozone season average of 1-h daily maximum ozone (of 9 models total), and (bottom) annual average PM2 : 5 calculated as a sum of species (5 models).CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 7 Estimates of the global PM2 : 5 CPD and LC mortality attributed to past climate change (2000-Em2000Cl1850), for PM2 : 5 calculated as a sum of species for 5 models (dark blue), and for PM2 : 5 as reported by 4 models (dark green). Light-colored bars show the corresponding estimates with a low-concentration threshold (5 : 8 g m 3 ). Uncertainty for individual models reflects only the 95% confidence intervals on the CRF (Krewski et al 2009). Uncertainty for the multi-model average is a 95% CI including uncertainty in the CRF and across models.
Figure 7 Estimates of the global PM2 : 5 CPD and LC mortality attributed to past climate change (2000-Em2000Cl1850), for PM2 : 5 calculated as a sum of species for 5 models (dark blue), and for PM2 : 5 as reported by 4 models (dark green). Light-colored bars show the corresponding estimates with a low-concentration threshold (5 : 8 g m 3 ). Uncertainty for individual models reflects only the 95% confidence intervals on the CRF (Krewski et al 2009). Uncertainty for the multi-model average is a 95% CI including uncertainty in the CRF and across models.CC-BY · From the PDF

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Citations

Cites

Research works printed but not linked: 29

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Metadata

Authors
Silva, R. A., West, J. J., Zhang, Y., Anenberg, S. C., Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T., Collins, W. J., Dalsoren, S., Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G., Horowitz, L. W., Nagashima, T., Naik, V., Rumbold, S., Skeie, R., Sudo, K., Takemura, T., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Cionni, I., Doherty, R. M., Eyring, V., Josse, B., MacKenzie, I. A., Plummer, D., Righi, M., Stevenson, D. S., Strode, S., Szopa, S., & Zeng, G.
Venue
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Published
2013-07-11
Volume
8
Issue
3
Pages
034005
ISSN
1748-9326
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005
Cited by
391
References
5
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