Machine learning based estimation of land productivity in the contiguous US using biophysical predictors
Open accessAbstract
Estimation of land productivity and availability is necessary to predict land production potential, especially for the emerging bioenergy crop production, which may compete land with food crop production. This study provides land productivity estimates in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through a machine learning approach. Land productivity is defined as the potential in producing agricultural outputs given biophysical properties including climate, soil, and land slope. The land productivity is approximated by the potential yields of six major crops in the CONUS, i.e. corn, soybean, winter wheat, spring wheat, cotton, and alfalfa. This quantitative relationship is then applied to estimating the availability of marginal land for bioenergy crop production in the CONUS. Furthermore, the levels of uncertainties associated with land productivity and marginal land estimates are quantified and discussed. Based on the modeling results, the total marginal land of the CONUS ranges 55.0–172.8 mha, but the 95% inter-percentile distance of the estimated productivity index reaches up to 60% of its expected value in data-scarce regions. Finally, in a cross-check analysis, marginal lands estimated based on biophysical criteria are found to be comparable to those based on an economic criterion.
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Yang et al. (2020) did country scale (USA) analysis to delineate marginal land for bioenergy crop production based on remote sensed data.
“Yang et al. (2020) did country scale (USA) analysis to delineate marginal land for bioenergy crop production based on remote sensed data.”
From Concepts of agricultural marginal lands and their utilisation: a review (2023) · cites this paper as Yang et al. (2020)
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- Authors
- Yang, P., Zhao, Q., & Cai, X.
- Affiliations
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- Corresponding author
- Cai, Ximing
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2020-06-30
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 074013
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3014365001
- Cited by
- 39
- References
- 65
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 7
- FWCI
- 8.41
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Office of Science (DE-SC0018420)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Soil and Land Suitability Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Keywords
- land productivity, marginal land, energy crops, land availability, crop yield potential, land suitability, maize, soybean, wheat, cotton, alfalfa, uncertainty quantification, land use competition, contiguous United States
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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