Estimating the number of deaths due to obesity: can the divergent findings be reconciled?
Abstract
WIDELY DIVERGENT ESTIMATES of the impact ofoverweight and obesity on mortality have been published in the medical literature in recent years.1–4 Elucidating the basis for these conflict-ing reports is important to understand the health
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The correlation between self-reported and measured weight, as found in selected studies, does not remove the possibility of bias because even with perfect correlation, the absolute bias in self-reported weight and height may be a function of its true value.
“The correlation between self-reported and measured weight, as found in selected studies [100], [101], does not remove the possibility of bias because even with perfect correlation, the absolute bias in self-reported weight and height may be a function of its true value.”
From The Preventable Causes of Death in the United States: Comparative Risk Assessment of Dietary, Lifestyle, and Metabolic Risk Factors (2009) · cites this paper as [101]
Cites
(1998) · PsycEXTRA Dataset · doi:10.1037/e565682010-001 · Cited by 9,452 · see citing works
Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in the United States, 1999-2004
Ogden, C. L., Carroll, M. D., Curtin, L. R., McDowell, M. A., Tabak, C. J., & Flegal, K. M. (2006) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.295.13.1549 · Cited by 8,720 · see citing works
Prevalence and trends in obesity among US adults, 1999–2000
Flegal, K. M. (2002) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.288.14.1723 · Cited by 6,190 · see citing works
Actual causes of death in the United States
McGinnis, J. M. (1993) · JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association · doi:10.1001/jama.1993.03510180077038 · Cited by 5,480 · see citing works
Actual Causes of Death in the United States, 2000
Mokdad, A. H. (2004) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.291.10.1238 · Cited by 5,211 · see citing works
Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in the United States
Crespo, C. J., & Smit, E. (2003) · Human Kinetics eBooks · doi:10.5040/9781718206601.ch-001 · Cited by 4,382 · see citing works
Body-Mass Index and Mortality in a Prospective Cohort of U.S. Adults
Calle, E. E., Thun, M. J., Petrelli, J. M., Rodriguez, C., & Heath, C. W. (1999) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm199910073411501 · Cited by 3,643 · see citing works
Overweight, obesity and cancer: epidemiological evidence and proposed mechanisms
Calle, E. E., & Kaaks, R. (2004) · Nature reviews. Cancer · doi:10.1038/nrc1408 · Cited by 3,613 · see citing works
Obesity and the risk of heart failure
Kenchaiah, S., Evans, J. C., Levy, D., Wilson, P. W. F., Benjamin, E. J., Larson, M. G., Kannel, W. B., & Vasan, R. S. (2002) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa020245 · Cited by 3,093 · see citing works
Excess Deaths Associated With Underweight, Overweight, and Obesity
Flegal, K. M. (2005) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.293.15.1861 · Cited by 2,834 · see citing works
Freedman, D. S., Dietz, W. H., Srinivasan, S. R., & Berenson, G. S. (1999) · Pediatrics · doi:10.1542/peds.103.6.1175 · Cited by 2,456 · see citing works
Overweight, Obesity, and Mortality in a Large Prospective Cohort of Persons 50 to 71 Years Old
Adams, K. F., Schatzkin, A. G., Harris, T. B., Kipnis, V., Mouw, T., Ballard-Barbash, R. R., Hollenbeck, A. R., & Leitzmann, M. F. (2006) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa055643 · Cited by 2,115 · see citing works
Weight gain as a risk factor for clinical diabetes mellitus in women
Colditz, G. A., Willett, W. C., Rotnitzky, A., & Manson, J. E. (1995) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-122-7-199504010-00001 · Cited by 2,064 · see citing works
Self-citationBody Weight and Mortality among Women
Manson, J. E., Willett, W. C., Stampfer, M. J., Colditz, G. A., Hunter, D. J., Hankinson, S. E., Hennekens, C. H., & Speizer, F. E. (1995) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm199509143331101 · Cited by 2,005 · see citing works
Self-citationAnnual Deaths Attributable to Obesity in the United States
Allison, D. B. (1999) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.282.16.1530 · Cited by 1,868 · see citing works
The effect of age on the association between body-mass index and mortality
Stevens, J., Cai, J., Pamuk, E. R., Williamson, D. F., Thun, M. J., & Wood, J. L. (1998) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm199801013380101 · Cited by 1,611 · see citing works
Variations in mortality by weight among 750,000 men and women
Lew, E. A., & Garfinkel, L. (1979) · Journal of Chronic Diseases · doi:10.1016/0021-9681(79)90119-x · Cited by 1,175 · see citing works
Willett, W. C., Dietz, W. H., & Colditz, G. A. (1999) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm199908053410607 · Cited by 1,141 · see citing works
Self-citationSecular trends in cardiovascular disease risk factors according to body mass index in US adults.
Gregg, E. W., Cheng, Y.-L. J., Cadwell, B., Imperatore, G., Williams, D. E., Flegal, K., Narayan, K. M. V., & Williamson, D. F. (2005) · Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) · doi:10.1097/01.ogx.0000180862.46088.0d · Cited by 981 · see citing works
Secular Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors According to Body Mass Index in US Adults
Gregg, E. W. (2005) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.293.15.1868 · Cited by 959 · see citing works
Weight, Weight Change, and Coronary Heart Disease in Women: Risk Within the 'Normal' Weight Range
Willett, W. C. (1995) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1995.03520300035033 · Cited by 924 · see citing works
Self-citationBody-mass index and mortality in Korean men and women
Jee, S. H., Sull, J. W., Park, J., Lee, S.-Y., Ohrr, H., Guallar, E., & Samet, J. M. (2006) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa054017 · Cited by 860 · see citing works
Stunkard, A. J., Faith, M. S., & Allison, K. C. (2003) · Biological Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/s0006-3223(03)00608-5 · Cited by 820 · see citing works
PSYCHOSOCIAL FACTORS AND CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
Everson‐Rose, S. A., & Lewis, T. T. (2005) · Annual Review of Public Health · doi:10.1146/annurev.publhealth.26.021304.144542 · Cited by 806 · see citing works
Adiposity as Compared with Physical Activity in Predicting Mortality among Women
Hu, F. B., Willett, W. C., Li, T., Stampfer, M. J., Colditz, G. A., & Manson, J. E. (2004) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa042135 · Cited by 798 · see citing works
Self-citationJackson, A., Stanforth, P., Gagnon, J., Rankinen, T., Leon, A., Rao, D., Skinner, J., Bouchard, C., & Wilmore, J. (2002) · International Journal of Obesity · doi:10.1038/sj.ijo.0802006 · Cited by 694 · see citing works
Body Weight, Weight Change, and Risk for Hypertension in Women
Huang, Z., Willett, W. C., Manson, J. E., ROSNER, B. A., Stampfer, M. J., Speizer, F. E., & Colditz, G. A. (1998) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-128-2-199801150-00001 · Cited by 687 · see citing works
Self-citationEpidemiology of Osteoarthritis
Zhang, Y., & Jordan, J. M. (2008) · Rheumatic Disease Clinics of North America · doi:10.1016/j.rdc.2008.05.007 · Cited by 633 · see citing works
A Prospective Study of Body Mass Index, Weight Change, and Risk of Stroke in Women
Rexrode, K. M. (1997) · JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association · doi:10.1001/jama.1997.03540430051032 · Cited by 617 · see citing works
Body weight and longevity. A reassessment
Manson, J. E. (1987) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.257.3.353 · Cited by 600 · see citing works
Self-citationCigarette smoking, relative weight, and menopause.
WILLETT, W., STAMPFER, M. J., BAIN, C., LIPNICK, R., SPEIZER, F. E., ROSNER, B., CRAMER, D., & HENNEKENS, C. H. (1983) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113598 · Cited by 558 · see citing works
Self-citationLee, I.-M. M. (1993) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1993.03510230061036 · Cited by 430 · see citing works
Correction: Actual Causes of Death in the United States, 2000
Mokdad, A. H., Marks, J. S., Stroup, D. F., & Gerberding, J. L. (2005) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.293.3.293 · Cited by 428 · see citing works
Ezzati, M., Martin, H. B., Skjold, S., Hoorn, S. V., & Murray, C. J. L. (2006) · Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine · doi:10.1177/014107680609900517 · Cited by 365 · see citing works
The validity of self-reported weight in US adults: a population based cross-sectional study
Villanueva, E. (2001) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/1471-2458-1-11 · Cited by 336 · see citing works
Kushner, R. F. (2009) · Nutrition Reviews · doi:10.1111/j.1753-4887.1993.tb03089.x · Cited by 285 · see citing works
Adiposity and Mortality in Men
Baik, I. (2000) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/152.3.264 · Cited by 278 · see citing works
Relationship of total and abdominal adiposity with CRP and IL-6 in women
Rexrode, K. M., Pradhan, A. D., Manson, J. E., Buring, J. E., & Ridker, P. M. (2003) · Annals of Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/s1047-2797(03)00053-x · Cited by 261 · see citing works
Self-citationGender and the Burden of Disease Attributable to Obesity
Muennig, P. A., Lubetkin, E. I., Jia, H., & Franks, P. J. (2006) · American Journal of Public Health · doi:10.2105/ajph.2005.068874 · Cited by 247 · see citing works
Hypothesis Concerning the U-shaped Relation between Body Mass Index and Mortality
Allison, D. B., Faith, M. S., Heo, M., & Kotler, D. P. (1997) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009275 · Cited by 228 · see citing works
Beasley, J. W. (1987) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1987.03390140065010 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
Height and Body Mass Index in Relation to Total Mortality
Engeland, A., Bjørge, T., Selmer, R. M., & Tverdal, A. (2003) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/01.ede.0000047889.30616.73 · Cited by 175 · see citing works
Ezzati, M., Martin, H., Skjold, S., Hoorn, S. V., & Murray, C. J. L. (2006) · Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine · doi:10.1258/jrsm.99.5.250 · Cited by 170 · see citing works
Original Article Underweight, overweight and obesity
Katzmarzyk, P. T., Craig, C. L., & Bouchard, C. (2001) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/s0895-4356(01)00356-0 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Body mass index and mortality among US male physicians
Ajani, U. A., Lotufo, P. A., Gaziano, J. M., Lee, I.-M. M., Spelsberg, A., Buring, J. E., Willett, W. C., & Manson, J. E. (2004) · Annals of Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2003.10.008 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
Self-citationA critique of paradoxes in current advice on dietary lipids
Lands, B. (2008) · Progress in Lipid Research · doi:10.1016/j.plipres.2007.12.001 · Cited by 137 · see citing works
Calle, E. E., Teras, L. R., & Thun, M. J. (2005) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm200511173532020 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
Allison, D. B., Faith, M. S., Heo, M., Townsend‐Butterworth, D., & Williamson, D. F. (1999) · Obesity Research · doi:10.1002/j.1550-8528.1999.tb00417.x · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Long sleep duration: A risk to health or a marker of risk?
Stamatakis, K. A., & Punjabi, N. M. (2007) · Sleep Medicine Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.smrv.2007.07.006 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Okosun, I., Tedders, S., Choi, S., & Dever, G. (2000) · International Journal of Obesity · doi:10.1038/sj.ijo.0801414 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Body weight and mortality. A 27-year follow-up of middle-aged men
Lee, I.-J. (1993) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.270.23.2823 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Body Weight and Mortality among Adults Who Never Smoked
Singh, P. N., Lindsted, K. D., & Fraser, G. E. (1999) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009942 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Stevens, J. (2003) · International Journal of Obesity · doi:10.1038/sj.ijo.0802417 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Obesity: An Overblown Epidemic?
Gibbs, W. W. (2005) · Scientific American · doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0605-70 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Underweight, Overweight, Obesity, and Excess Deaths
Ding, E. L. (2005) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.294.5.552-b · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Allison, D. B., Heo, M., Flanders, D. W., Faith, M. S., & Williamson, D. F. (1997) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009334 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
A new approach for estimating healthy body weights.
Garrison, R. J., & Kannel, W. B. (1993) · PubMed · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Zhang, X., Shu, X.-O., Chow, W.-H., Yang, G., Li, H., Gao, J., Yt, G., & Zheng, W. (2008) · International Journal of Obesity · doi:10.1038/ijo.2008.63 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Weight-Associated Deaths in the United States
Flegal, K. M., Graubard, B. I., Williamson, D. F., & Gail, M. H. (2007) · Journal of Women s Health · doi:10.1089/jwh.2007.0547 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Correcting Bias, or Biased Corrections?
Flegal, K. M., Graubard, B. I., Williamson, D. F., et al. (2008) · Obesity · doi:10.1038/oby.2007.41 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Underweight, Overweight, Obesity, and Excess Deaths—Reply
Flegal, K. M., Graubard, B. I., Gail, M. H., et al. (2005) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.294.5.552-c · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Workshop on estimating the health burden of overweight and obesity
STEINBERG, K. K., & Dietz, W. H. (2008) · International Journal of Obesity · doi:10.1038/ijo.2008.80 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Danaei, G., Ding, E. L., Mozaffarian, D., Taylor, B., Rehm, J., Murray, C. J. L., & Ezzati, M. (2009) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000058 · Cited by 2,860 · see citing works
Body-mass index and mortality among 1.46 million white adults
Berrington de Gonzalez, A., Hartge, P., Cerhan, J. R., Flint, A. J., Hannan, L., MacInnis, R. J., Moore, S. C., Tobias, G. S., Anton-Culver, H., Freeman, L. B., et al. (2010) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa1000367 · Cited by 2,317 · see citing works
Self-citationMorbidity and mortality associated with obesity
Abdelaal, M., le Roux, C. W., & Docherty, N. G. (2017) · Annals of Translational Medicine · doi:10.21037/atm.2017.03.107 · Cited by 1,052 · see citing works
Association between body-mass index and risk of death in more than 1 million Asians
Zheng, W., McLerran, D. F., Rolland, B., Zhang, X., Inoue, M., Matsuo, K., He, J., Gupta, P. C., Ramadas, K., Tsugane, S., et al. (2011) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa1010679 · Cited by 885 · see citing works
Lee, D. H., Keum, N., Hu, F. B., Orav, E. J., Rimm, E. B., Willett, W. C., & Giovannucci, E. L. (2018) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.k2575 · Cited by 486 · see citing works
Forecasting the effects of obesity and smoking on U.S. life expectancy
Stewart, S. T., Cutler, D. M., & Rosen, A. B. (2009) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmsa0900459 · Cited by 478 · see citing works
Flegal, K. M., Graubard, B. I., Williamson, D. F., & Cooper, R. S. (2011) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwq341 · Cited by 223 · see citing works
Lean diabetes mellitus: An emerging entity in the era of obesity
George, A. M., Jacob, A. G., & Fogelfeld, L. (2015) · World Journal of Diabetes · doi:10.4239/wjd.v6.i4.613 · Cited by 177 · see citing works
Optimal body weight for health and longevity: bridging basic, clinical, and population research
Fontana, L., & Hu, F. B. (2014) · Aging Cell · doi:10.1111/acel.12207 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Self-citationRevealing the burden of obesity using weight histories
Stokes, A., & Preston, S. H. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1515472113 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
- Authors
- Manson, J. E., Bassuk, S. S., Hu, F. B., Stampfer, M. J., Colditz, G. A., & Willett, W. C.
- Affiliations
- Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of Women's Health
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2007-03
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 168-176
- ISSN
- 1059-7115 (ISSN-L)
- 1540-9996
- 1931-843X
- OpenAlex
- W2062197017
- Cited by
- 114
- References
- 62
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 7
- FWCI
- 12.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Women s Health (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (HL-34595, R01HL034595)
- National Cancer Institute (CA-87969, P01CA087969)
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (R01DK058845, DK58845)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Pharmacy › Obesity and Health Practices
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer Risks and Factors
- Keywords
- obesity, overweight, mortality, attributable mortality
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Cause of Death, Death Certificates, Female, Humans, Male, Obesity, Population Surveillance, Sex Factors, United States, Meta-Analysis as Topic, Body Mass Index
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
