The DOI matches its Crossref record; 39 of the 40 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Agriculture in 2050: Recalibrating Targets for Sustainable Intensification
Abstract
The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is dominated by an imbalanced narrative that calls for food production to increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—without specifying commensurate environmental goals. We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling midcentury targets for both production and the environment. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. At the same time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning. Specifying quantitative targets will clarify the scope of the challenges that agriculture must face in the coming decades, focus research and policy on achieving specific outcomes, and ensure that sustainable intensification efforts lead to measurable environmental improvements. We propose new directions for research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals.
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“The main reason is that the FAO trend is estimated using the earlier base year 2005/2007 and therefore overestimates the expected increase in food consumption in comparison with the 2010 base year that is used in our review.”
From A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050 (2021) · cites this paper as [42]
Citations
Cites
Solutions for a cultivated planet
Foley, J. A., Ramankutty, N., Brauman, K. A., Cassidy, E. S., Gerber, J. S., Johnston, M., Mueller, N. D., O’Connell, C., Ray, D. K., West, P. C., et al. (2011) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature10452 · Cited by 8,476
Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture
Tilman, D., Balzer, C., Hill, J., & Befort, B. L. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1116437108 · Cited by 7,692
Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change
Change, I. P. O. C. (2015) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415416 · Cited by 4,731
Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050
Ray, D. K., Mueller, N. D., West, P. C., & Foley, J. A. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428 · Cited by 3,415
World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revisionPreprint
Alexandratos, N., & Bruinsma, J. (2012) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.288998 · Cited by 3,192
Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health
Tilman, D., & Clark, M. (2014) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature13959 · Cited by 3,026
The State of Food Insecurity in the World
WFP, W. (2015) · Cited by 2,947
Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management
Mueller, N. D., Gerber, J., Johnston, M., Ray, D. K., Ramankutty, N., & Foley, J. A. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11420 · Cited by 2,942
A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
Challinor, A. J., Watson, J., Lobell, D. B., Howden, S. M., Smith, D. R., & Chhetri, N. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2153 · Cited by 2,333
Ecological intensification: harnessing ecosystem services for food security
Bommarco, R., Kleijn, D., & Potts, S. G. (2013) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2012.10.012 · Cited by 1,862
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- Buckley, 2016, Public and Private Sector Interventions for Global Food Security: A Report from the Aspen Institute Food Security Strategy Group, Aspen Institute.
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
van Dijk, M., Morley, T., Rau, M. L., & Saghai, Y. (2021) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00322-9 · Cited by 2,339
Internet-of-Things (IoT)-Based Smart Agriculture: Toward Making the Fields Talk
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Trends in Global Agricultural Land Use: Implications for Environmental Health and Food Security
Ramankutty, N., Mehrabi, Z., Waha, K., Jarvis, L., Kremen, C., Herrero, M., & Rieseberg, L. H. (2018) · Annual Review of Plant Biology · doi:10.1146/annurev-arplant-042817-040256 · Cited by 954
“Another recent study also critiqued the doubling narrative for ignoring baselines (77), pointing that the baseline for both the FAO and Tilman studies was ~2005, and that production growth experienced since”
BackgroundThe Future of Aquatic Protein: Implications for Protein Sources in Aquaculture Diets
Hua, K., Cobcroft, J. M., Cole, A. J., Condon, K., Jerry, D. R., Mangott, A., Praeger, C., Vucko, M. J., Zeng, C., Zenger, K. R., et al. (2019) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2019.10.018 · Cited by 947
“7 billion by 2050(1) will require an increase in the supply of food by 25%–70%.(2) This is all in the face of a deteriorating natural resource base and competing interests for agriculturally based input commodities.”
Lal, R. (2018) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14054 · Cited by 900
Metadata
- Authors
- Hunter, M. C., Smith, R. G., Schipanski, M. E., Atwood, L. W., & Mortensen, D. A.
- Affiliations
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- University of New Hampshire (US)
- Colorado State University (US)
- Venue
- BioScience
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2017-02-22
- Volume
- 67
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 386-391
- ISSN
- 0006-3568 (ISSN-L)
- 1525-3244
- OpenAlex
- W2591121333
- Cited by
- 1,004
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 69 · 2025: 104 · 2024: 151 · 2023: 142 · 2022: 166 · 2021: 155 · 2020: 104 · 2019: 58 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 10
- FWCI
- 44.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- BioScience (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DGE1255832)
- USDA Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture (2011-67003-30343)
- USDA Organic Research and Extension Initiative (2011-51300-30638)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Sustainable Agricultural Systems Analysis
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- sustainable intensification, future of agriculture, crop demand, nutrient loss, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, agricultural policy, ecosystem functioning
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