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Agriculture in 2050: Recalibrating Targets for Sustainable Intensification
Abstract
The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is dominated by an imbalanced narrative that calls for food production to increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—without specifying commensurate environmental goals. We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling midcentury targets for both production and the environment. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. At the same time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning. Specifying quantitative targets will clarify the scope of the challenges that agriculture must face in the coming decades, focus research and policy on achieving specific outcomes, and ensure that sustainable intensification efforts lead to measurable environmental improvements. We propose new directions for research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals.
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Thornton, P. K., Kristjanson, P., Förch, W., Barahona, C., Cramer, L. K., & Pradhan, S. (2018) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.06.003 · Cited by 124
Alternative protein sources in aquafeed: Current scenario and future perspectives
Serra, V., Pastorelli, G., Tedesco, D. E. A., Turin, L., & Guerrini, A. (2024) · Veterinary and Animal Science · doi:10.1016/j.vas.2024.100381 · Cited by 144
“Agricultural production will need to increase by 50 %, to satisfy the growing demand for food according to the expected increase in the global population (9.7 billion people by 2050) (Hunter et al., 2017).”
BackgroundInfluentialBenítez, M., Ewing, P. M., Osborne, S. L., & Lehman, R. M. (2021) · Soil Biology and Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2021.108309 · Cited by 124
Scott, N. R., Chen, H., & Cui, H. (2018) · Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry · doi:10.1021/acs.jafc.8b00964 · Cited by 120
Prebiotics and synbiotics – in ovo delivery for improved lifespan condition in chicken
Siwek, M. Z., Sławińska, A., Stadnicka, K., Bogucka, J., Dunisławska, A., & Bednarczyk, M. F. (2018) · BMC Veterinary Research · doi:10.1186/s12917-018-1738-z · Cited by 114
Photovoltaic panels as shading resources for livestock
Maia, A. S. C., Culhari, E. D. A., Fonsêca, V. D. F. C., Milan, H. F. M., & Gebremedhin, K. G. (2020) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120551 · Cited by 111
“…the world to 9.7 billion in 2050 (Umer et al., 2019) and the simultaneous increase in wealth, which drives up the per-capita consumption of animal products (Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012; Popp et al., 2010), call for a dramatic increase in food production (25% e 70% by 2050; Hunter et al., 2017).”
BackgroundInfluentialA pan-Zea genome map for enhancing maize improvement
Gui, S., Wei, W., Jiang, C., Luo, J., Chen, L., Wu, S., Li, W., Wang, Y., Li, S., Yang, N., et al. (2022) · Genome biology · doi:10.1186/s13059-022-02742-7 · Cited by 111
“production must increase 70% by 2050 to feed the increase in the world’s population [2].”
BackgroundLaurett, R., Paço, A. M. F. D., & Mainardes, E. W. (2020) · Sustainable Production and Consumption · doi:10.1016/j.spc.2020.10.032 · Cited by 109
Fincheira, P., Quiróz, A., Tortella, G., Diez, M. C., & Rubilar, O. (2021) · Microbiological Research · doi:10.1016/j.micres.2021.126726 · Cited by 105
Cristofano, F., El‐Nakhel, C., & Rouphael, Y. (2021) · Biomolecules · doi:10.3390/biom11081103 · Cited by 104
“This increase will result in a rise in the demand for foodstuffs that is estimated to be 25 to 70% greater than what is currently produced [2].”
BackgroundInvestigating logistics-related food loss drivers: A study on fresh fruit and vegetable supply chain
Surucu-Balci, E., & Tuna, O. (2021) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128561 · Cited by 115
Recent advances in E-monitoring of plant diseases
Mohammad‐Razdari, A., Rousseau, D., Bakhshipour, A., Taylor, S., Poveda, J., & Kiani, H. (2022) · Biosensors and Bioelectronics · doi:10.1016/j.bios.2021.113953 · Cited by 102
Pervasive cropland in protected areas highlight trade-offs between conservation and food security
Vijay, V., & Armsworth, P. R. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2010121118 · Cited by 106
Griffiths, M., Delory, B. M., Jawahir, V., Wong, K. M., Bagnall, G. C., Dowd, T. G., Nusinow, D. A., Miller, A. J., & Topp, C. N. (2021) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.14247 · Cited by 110
“Adoption of cover crops in agriculture is a promising approach toward the vision of sustainable intensification of agriculture (Hunter et al., 2017).”
BackgroundUsing Bibliometric Analysis to Understand the Recent Progress in Agroecosystem Services Research
Liu, W., Wang, J., Li, C., Chen, B., & Sun, Y. (2018) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.09.001 · Cited by 128
Guava Disease Detection Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks: A Case Study of Guava Plants
Mostafa, A. M., Kumar, S. A., Meraj, T., Rauf, H. T., Alnuaim, A. A., & Alkhayyal, M. A. (2021) · Applied Sciences · doi:10.3390/app12010239 · Cited by 98
“Therefore, food production needs a more high-yielding and sustainable environment to increase the plant yield [1,2].”
BackgroundPerformance evaluation of YOLO v5 model for automatic crop and weed classification on UAV images
Ajayi, O. G., Ashi, J., & Guda, B. (2023) · Smart Agricultural Technology · doi:10.1016/j.atech.2023.100231 · Cited by 113
Strock, C., Burridge, J., Massas, A. S. F., Beaver, J. S., Beebe, S., Camilo, S. A., Fourie, D., Jochua, C. N., Miguel, M. A., Miklas, P. N., et al. (2019) · Field Crops Research · doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2019.04.012 · Cited by 94
“3 billion people by the year 2050, it is estimated that food production will need to increase by 25–70% to keep up with demand (Hunter et al., 2017).”
BackgroundSustainable management education and an empirical five-pillar model of sustainability
Greenland, S. J., Saleem, M. A., Misra, R., & Mason, J. (2022) · The International Journal of Management Education · doi:10.1016/j.ijme.2022.100658 · Cited by 110
Meta‐analysis on the potential for increasing nitrogen losses from intensifying tropical agriculture
Huddell, A. M., Galford, G. L., Tully, K. L., Crowley, C. F., Palm, C. A., Neill, C., Hickman, J. E., & Menge, D. N. L. (2020) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14951 · Cited by 93
“A potential way to meet these demands is to increase productivity on existing agricultural lands (“intensification”), which can minimize negative externalities from land clearing such as habitat loss, biodiversity loss, and greenhouse gas emissions (Hunter et al., 2017).”
BackgroundJankowski, K. J., Neill, C., Davidson, E. A., Macedo, M. N., Costa, C., Galford, G. L., Maracahipes‐Santos, L., Lefebvre, P., Nunes, D., Cerri, C. E. P., et al. (2018) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-018-31175-1 · Cited by 92
Estimation of Sugarcane Yield Using a Machine Learning Approach Based on UAV-LiDAR Data
Xu, J., Ma, J., Tang, Y., Wu, W., Shao, J.-H., Wu, W., Wei, S., Liu, Y., Wang, Y.-C., & Guo, H. (2020) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs12172823 · Cited by 95
“Sustainable agricultural intensification is a primary trend of land use to feed a growing population [59,60].”
BackgroundTalukdar, S., Naikoo, M. W., Mallick, J., Praveen, B., Shahfahad, Sharma, P., Islam, A. R. M. T., Pal, S., & Rahman, A. (2021) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103343 · Cited by 90
Confronting Barriers to Cropping System Diversification
Mortensen, D. A., & Smith, R. G. (2020) · Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems · doi:10.3389/fsufs.2020.564197 · Cited by 94
“Similarly, while productivity of all farms will need to continue to rise over the coming decades, there will also need to be a disproportionate focus placed on improving the long-term sustainability and environmental footprint of farming, and this clearly must include large-scale farms (Hunter et al., 2017).”
BackgroundSelf-citationAre cover crop mixtures better at suppressing weeds than cover crop monocultures?
Smith, R. G., Warren, N. D., & Cordeau, S. (2020) · Weed Science · doi:10.1017/wsc.2020.12 · Cited by 89
“…in wind and water erosion, and improvements in soil structure and health (Blanco-Canqui et al. 2015; Snapp et al. 2005), and thus may be an important tool to counteract environmental pollution and sustainability challenges associated with agriculture (Hunter et al. 2017; Kladivko et al. 2014).”
BackgroundSelf-citationRodríguez, R., & Durán, P. (2020) · Frontiers in Bioengineering and Biotechnology · doi:10.3389/fbioe.2020.00568 · Cited by 91
Lahlali, R., Ibrahim, D. S. S., Belabess, Z., Roni, M. Z. K., Radouane, N., Vicente, C. S. L., Menéndez, E., Mokrını, F., Barka, E. A., Mota, M. G. D. M. E., et al. (2021) · Heliyon · doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08142 · Cited by 93
“Global food production needs to be increased by 70% for the needs to feed the world population by 2050 (Hunter et al., 2017).”
BackgroundBiosecurity policy and legislation for the global seaweed aquaculture industry
Campbell, I., Kambey, C. S. B., Mateo, J. P., Rusekwa, S. B., Hurtado, A. Q., Msuya, F. E., Stentiford, G. D., & Cook, E. (2019) · Journal of Applied Phycology · doi:10.1007/s10811-019-02010-5 · Cited by 87
“Given the widespread occurrence of pests and diseases observed internationally in seaweed aquaculture (Watkiss et al. 2012; Hurtado et al. 2017; Quiaoit et al. 2018), and that seaweed crops have been transplanted internationally to establish new cultivation sites (Loureiro et al. 2015; Hurtado et…”
BackgroundMolecular basis of cerium oxide nanoparticle enhancement of rice salt tolerance and yield
Zhou, H., Wu, H., Zhang, F., Su, Y., Guan, W., Xie, Y., Giraldo, J. P., & Shen, W. (2021) · Environmental Science Nano · doi:10.1039/d1en00390a · Cited by 87
Regional data sets of high-resolution (1 and 6 km) irrigation estimates from space
Dari, J., Brocca, L., Modanesi, S., Massari, C., Tarpanelli, A., Barbetta, S., Quast, R., Vreugdenhil, M., Freeman, V., Barella-Ortiz, A., et al. (2023) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-15-1555-2023 · Cited by 97
“In the near future, the pressure exerted on water resources to foster irrigation is expected to be further exacerbated to face the global challenge represented by the increasing food demand due to the population growth under climate warming scenarios (Hunter et al., 2017; Ferguson et al., 2018).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Hunter, M. C., Smith, R. G., Schipanski, M. E., Atwood, L. W., & Mortensen, D. A.
- Affiliations
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- University of New Hampshire (US)
- Colorado State University (US)
- Venue
- BioScience
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2017-02-22
- Volume
- 67
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 386-391
- ISSN
- 0006-3568 (ISSN-L)
- 1525-3244
- OpenAlex
- W2591121333
- Cited by
- 1,004
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 69 · 2025: 104 · 2024: 151 · 2023: 142 · 2022: 166 · 2021: 155 · 2020: 104 · 2019: 58 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 10
- FWCI
- 44.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- BioScience (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DGE1255832)
- USDA Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture (2011-67003-30343)
- USDA Organic Research and Extension Initiative (2011-51300-30638)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Sustainable Agricultural Systems Analysis
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- sustainable intensification, future of agriculture, crop demand, nutrient loss, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, agricultural policy, ecosystem functioning
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