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Longitudinal Selectivity in Aging Populations: Separating Mortality-Associated Versus Experimental Components in the Berlin Aging Study (BASE)
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The authors examined 3.7-year selectivity in the Berlin Aging Study by comparing the T1 parent sample (N = 516) with the T3 sample (N = 206). Selectivity was partitioned into a mortality-associated component, reflecting the degree to which individuals still alive at T3 (T3 survivors, N = 313) differ from the T1 parent sample (N = 516) from which they originated, and an experimental component, reflecting the degree to which the T3 sample (N = 206) differed from T3 survivors (N = 313). Across 48 variables representing medical, sensorimotor, cognitive, personality-related, and socioeconomic domains, the mortality-associated component accounted for 64% of total selectivity, and the experimental component for 36% (0.18 vs 0.10 SD units; t = 7.20, p <.01). Except for age and intelligence, experimental selectivity effects regarding means and prevalence rates were generally small. Partitioning selectivity into mortality-associated and experimental components is a useful tool in the longitudinal study of aging populations.
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“Individuals who drop out from a longitudinal study often differ from those who stay on dimensions of interest-they tend to be less healthy, less cognitively fit, and less engaged in stimulating activities, thereby restricting the observable range of variation (e.g., Ghisletta, McArdle, & Lindenberger, 2006; Lindenberger, Singer, & Baltes, 2002) and potentially biasing estimates of the rel”
From Enrichment Effects on Adult Cognitive Development: Can the Functional Capacity of Older Adults Be Preserved and Enhanced? (2008) · cites this paper as Lindenberger, Singer, & Baltes, 2002
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“Two additive components were distinguished, one related to biological mortality and the other to nonparticipation of survivors (i.e., mortality-associated vs. experimental selectivity; for computation, see Lindenberger et al., 2002).”
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“More details on the longitudinal samples can be found in Singer, Verhaeghen, Ghisletta, Lindenberger, and Baltes (2003); details on selectivity (i.e., drop-out effects) can be found in Lindenberger, Singer, and Baltes (2002).”
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“In a longitudinal study, the problem of maintaining representative samples increases with the duration of the study, as higher ability and healthier participants are more likely to persist from wave to wave (Anstey & Luszcz, 2002; Lindenberger et al., 2002).”
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“Statistically significant effects (p< 0.05) appear in bold. a - does not survive multiple comparison corrections (alpha¼ 0.05/3). deviation of the baseline sample in the variable of interest (Lindenberger et al., 2002).”
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“Longitudinal designs come with their own set of methodological challenges, such as retest effects as well as selective attrition due to lack of motivation, poor health, and death (e.g., de Frias et al., 2007; Lindenberger et al., 2002).”
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“Owing to the recruitment procedure in BASE, the transitive nature of the samples (i.e., later samples are selections of earlier samples), and the application of specialized statistical tools for the analysis of sample selectivity (cf. Aitkin, 1934; Pearson, 1903), it was possible to estimate mean-level and variance/co…”
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“Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.”
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“5 years differed from the sample at T1 (Lindenberger et al., 2002).”
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“A large body of research illustrates the effects of selectivity in longitudinal aging studies: Longitudinal study participants are usually younger, healthier, better educated, and cognitively fitter than those who are not available for repeated assessment (e.g., Bosworth et al., 1999; Lindenberger et al., 2002; Rabbit…”
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“, 2014),we examined the variables typically sensitive to attrition (Lindenberger et al., 2002).”
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“As reported above, individuals with lower scores on measures of intellectual and sensory functioning and of more advanced age have been found to be less likely to continue participation in the BASE (Lindenberger et al., 2002; Singer et al., 2003).”
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“In choosing them, we were guided by (1) general findings from previous research on mortality predictors, (2) specific BASE findings from previous work on mortality predictors (Lindenberger et al., 2002; Maier & Smith, 1999), and (3) practical limitations dictated by empirical computational issues encountered during th…”
InfluentialSelf-citationHoppmann, C. A., Infurna, F. J., Ram, N., & Gerstorf, D. (2015) · The Journals of Gerontology Series B · doi:10.1093/geronb/gbv063 · Cited by 62
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“In addition to the high costs and efforts of longitudinal design, these studies often face selection bias and late selective dropouts (Lindenberger et al., 2002; Raz et al., 2005).”
BackgroundResponse shift in self-rated health after serious health events in old age
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“An effect-size metric was used to compare the 52 T. D. Windsor et al. online and offline samples on the study variables (Lindenberger et al., 2002).”
MethodLIFESPAN: A tool for the computer-aided design of longitudinal studies
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“Regarding selective attrition, future versions of LIFESPAN or related programs would allow 385 researchers to specify drop-out rates, including selection equations to capture possible effects of non386 random attrition (cf. Lawley, 1943;Lindenberger et al., 2002).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationLongitudinal functional brain network reconfiguration in healthy aging
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Individual Differences in Cognitive Aging
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“To identify such auxiliary variables, we tested the effects of covariates assessed at baseline that are known to lead to attrition (Lindenberger et al., 2002), such as age, level of education,MMSE scores, and diagnosis of hypertension.”
Yuan, P., Voelkle, M. C., & Raz, N. (2018) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2018.01.032 · Cited by 46
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Longitudinal Dopamine D2 Receptor Changes and Cerebrovascular Health in Aging
Karalija, N., Johansson, J. J., Papenberg, G., Wåhlin, A., Salami, A., Köhncke, Y., Brandmaier, A. M., Andersson, M., Axelsson, J., Riklund, K., et al. (2022) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.0000000000200891 · Cited by 47
Self-citationHülür, G., Infurna, F. J., Ram, N., & Gerstorf, D. (2012) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/a0029965 · Cited by 43
“…who contributed more data points were characterized by a higher overall episodic memory performance 2 years before death (␥ 05 ϭ 2.641), again demonstrating predictive effects of cognition for longitudinal selection (Ghisletta et al., 2006; Lindenberger et al., 2002; McArdle et al., 1991).”
BackgroundInfluentialAichele, S., Rabbitt, P., & Ghisletta, P. (2016) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/0956797615626906 · Cited by 39
Ghisletta, P., Bäckman, L., Bertram, L., Brandmaier, A. M., Gerstorf, D., Liu, T., & Lindenberger, U. (2014) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/a0035201 · Cited by 41
Self-citationThe effect of cataract surgery on neuropsychological test performance: A randomized controlled trial
Anstey, K. J., Lord, S. R., Hennessy, M., MITCHELL, P., MILL, K., & von Sanden, C. (2006) · Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society · doi:10.1017/s1355617706060954 · Cited by 40
“Attrition in longitudinal studies and selection bias in cross-sectional studies (Anstey & Luszcz, 2002; Lindenberger et al., 2002) also influence results.”
Volunteering and Subjective Well-Being in Later Adulthood: Is Self-Efficacy the Key?
Müller, D., Ziegelmann, J. P., Simonson, J., Tesch‐Römer, C., & Huxhold, O. (2014) · International Journal of Developmental Science · doi:10.3233/dev-14140 · Cited by 43
Potter, S., Drewelies, J., Wagner, J., Düzel, S., Brose, A., Demuth, I., Steinhagen‐Thiessen, E., Lindenberger, U., Wagner, G. G., & Gerstorf, D. (2020) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/pag0000459 · Cited by 40
Self-citationDevelopment and structural dynamics of personal life investment in old age.
Schindler, I., Staudinger, U. M., & Nesselroade, J. R. (2006) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/0882-7974.21.4.737 · Cited by 35
Schöllgen, I., Huxhold, O., & Schmiedek, F. (2011) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/a0026115 · Cited by 34
Development of Intellectual Abilities in Old Age: From Age Gradients to Individuals
Lövdén, M., & Lindenberger, U. (2005) · Sage eBooks · doi:10.4135/9781452233529.n12 · Cited by 31
Self-citationLongitudinal functional connectivity patterns of the default mode network in healthy older adults
Malagurski, B., Deschwanden, P. F., Jäncke, L., & Mérillat, S. (2022) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2022.119414 · Cited by 44
“The total selectivity was computed by standardizing the difference between the mean in the baseline sample and the 7-year follow-up sample, on the standard deviation of the baseline sample in the variable of interest (Lindenberger et al., 2002).”
MethodToward a functional future for the cognitive neuroscience of human aging
Mooraj, Z., Salami, A., Campbell, K. L., Dahl, M. J., Kosciessa, J. Q., Nassar, M. R., Werkle‐Bergner, M., Craik, F. I. M., Lindenberger, U., Mayr, U., et al. (2025) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2024.12.008 · Cited by 39
Self-citationInfurna, F. J., Gerstorf, D., & Ram, N. (2012) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/a0029775 · Cited by 30
A close relationship between verbal memory and SN/VTA integrity in young and older adults
Düzel, S., Schütze, H., Stallforth, S., Kaufmann, J., Bodammer, N., Bunzeck, N., Münte, T. F., Lindenberger, U., Heinze, H., & Düzel, E. (2008) · Neuropsychologia · doi:10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2008.06.001 · Cited by 28
Self-citationSubjective well-being dynamics in couples from the Australian longitudinal study of aging
Walker, R., Luszcz, M., Gerstorf, D., & Hoppmann, C. (2011) · Gerontology · doi:10.1159/000318633 · Cited by 29
Two-Wave Longitudinal Findings From the Berlin Aging Study: Introduction to a Collection of Articles
Smith, J., Maas, I., Mayer, K. U., Helmchen, H., Steinhagen-Thiessen, E., & Baltes, P. B. (2002) · The Journals of Gerontology Series B · doi:10.1093/geronb/57.6.p471 · Cited by 28
Self-citationDutt, A. J., Wahl, H., & Rupprecht, F. S. (2018) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/pag0000245 · Cited by 30
Ratz, T., Lippke, S., Muellmann, S., Peters, M., Pischke, C. R., Meyer, J., Bragina, I., & Voelcker‐Rehage, C. (2019) · Applied Psychology Health and Well-Being · doi:10.1111/aphw.12174 · Cited by 27
The marmoset as an important primate model for longitudinal studies of neurocognitive aging
Rothwell, E. S., Freire‐Cobo, C., Varghese, M., Edwards, M. M., Janssen, W. G. M., Hof, P. R., & Agnès Lacreuse, A. (2021) · American Journal of Primatology · doi:10.1002/ajp.23271 · Cited by 27
“Although longitudinal studies possess their own challenges, due to nonrandom attrition and practice effects (e.g., Lindenberger et al., 2002; Rabbitt et al., 2004; Salthouse, 1996), they are necessary to capture true age‐related change and examine whether between‐individual differences…”
BackgroundRace-Related Disparities in 5-Year Cognitive Level and Change in Untrained Active Participants
Marsiske, M., Dzierzewski, J. M., Thomas, K. R., Kasten, L. E., Jones, R. N., Johnson, K. E., Willis, S. L., Whitfield, K. E., Ball, K., & Rebok, G. W. (2013) · Journal of Aging and Health · doi:10.1177/0898264313497794 · Cited by 27
Windsor, T. D., Ghisletta, P., & Gerstorf, D. (2018) · The Journals of Gerontology Series B · doi:10.1093/geronb/gby143 · Cited by 28
Reeve, C. L. L., & Bonaccio, S. (2011) · Intelligence · doi:10.1016/j.intell.2011.06.009 · Cited by 27
Smith, J., Gerstorf, D., & Li, Q. (2008) · The Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis · doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-6752-5_20 · Cited by 26
Hülür, G., Willis, S. L., Hertzog, C. K., Schaie, K. W., & Gerstorf, D. (2018) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/pag0000243 · Cited by 23
Metadata
- Authors
- Lindenberger, U., Singer, T., & Baltes, P. B.
- Affiliations
- Max Planck Institute for Human Development (DE)
- Max Planck Society (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Lindenberger, U.
- Venue
- The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2002-11-01
- Volume
- 57
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- P474-P482
- ISSN
- 1079-5014 (ISSN-L)
- 1758-5368
- OpenAlex
- W2140385093
- Cited by
- 147
- References
- 24
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 13 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 10.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Journals of Gerontology Series B (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Universität des Saarlandes
- Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Developmental and Educational Psychology › Aging and Gerontology Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Aging, Health, and Disability
- Social Sciences › Health › Health disparities and outcomes
- Keywords
- population aging, Berlin Aging Study, older adults, cognitive aging, personality, socioeconomic status, intelligence, prevalence rates, sample attrition
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Attitude, Female, Geriatrics, Health Status, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Mortality, Personal Satisfaction, Personality, Population Surveillance, Social Support, Socioeconomic Factors, Geriatric Assessment, Consensus
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