Cited by 130Genetic Associations and EpidemiologyGenomics and Rare DiseasesGenetic and phenotypic traits in livestock

Validity of polygenic risk scores: are we measuring what we think we are?

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Janssens, A Cecile J W·2019·Human Molecular Genetics

Abstract

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have become the standard for quantifying genetic liability in the prediction of disease risks. PRSs are generally constructed as weighted sum scores of risk alleles using effect sizes from genome-wide association studies as their weights. The construction of PRSs is being improved with more appropriate selection of independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and optimized estimation of their weights but is rarely reflected upon from a theoretical perspective, focusing on the validity of the risk score. Borrowing from psychometrics, this paper discusses the validity of PRSs and introduces the three main types of validity that are considered in the evaluation of tests and measurements: construct, content, and criterion validity. This introduction is followed by a discussion of three topics that challenge the validity of PRS, namely, their claimed independence of clinical risk factors, the consequences of relaxing SNP inclusion thresholds and the selection of SNP weights. This discussion of the validity of PRS reminds us that we need to keep questioning if weighted sums of risk alleles are measuring what we think they are in the various scenarios in which PRSs are used and that we need to keep exploring alternative modeling strategies that might better reflect the underlying biological pathways.

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  • Genetic data are increasingly cost effective, requiring only a one-in-a-lifetime ascertainment, but have limited predictive ability on their own.

    “Genetic data are increasingly cost effective, requiring only a one-in-a-lifetime ascertainment, but they also have limited predictive ability on their own 27 .”

    From Multimodal biomedical AI (2022) · cites this paper as [27]

    The Introduction says polygenic risk scores typically explain only a small proportion of genotypic variance, supporting the claim that genetic data have limited predictive ability on their own. The paper does not state that genetic data are becoming more cost-effective or require only one ascertainment over a lifetime. (LLM, conf=0.85)

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Authors
Janssens, A. C. J. W.
Affiliations
Emory University (US)
Corresponding author
Janssens, A Cecile J W
Venue
Human Molecular Genetics
Published
2019-08-28
Volume
28
Issue
R2
Pages
R143-R150
ISSN
  • 0964-6906 (ISSN-L)
  • 1460-2083
OpenAlex
W2970478489
Cited by
129
References
64
Citations by year
2026: 13 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 24 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 22 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 1
FWCI
2.04
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Human Molecular Genetics (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic Associations and Epidemiology
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genomics and Rare Diseases
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic and phenotypic traits in livestock
Keywords
polygenic risk score, validity, construct validity, content validity, criterion validity, psychometrics, single nucleotide polymorphisms, SNP selection, genetic susceptibility, disease risk prediction, clinical risk factors
MeSH terms
Alleles, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Genotype, Humans, Models, Genetic, Psychometrics, Risk Factors, Reproducibility of Results, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Multifactorial Inheritance, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Genome-Wide Association Study

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