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Long-Term Diagnostic Stability and Outcome in Recent First-Episode Cohort Studies of Schizophrenia
Abstract
Knowing the long-term outcomes of schizophrenia and stability of a schizophrenia diagnosis are important from a clinical standpoint as well as essential to future research on diagnostic classifications and outcome. As in prior research on schizophrenia, prospectively designed long-term studies over the past 30 years find that the predominant course of illness includes chronically poor functioning, with little evidence of long-term improvement. Mortality due to suicide is significant at about 10% over 10-year periods of follow-up. Within studies, outcome domains are interrelated, and the relatively consistent predictors of poorer outcome include family history of schizophrenia, insidious onset, poor premorbid functioning, severity of negative symptoms, and severity and duration of untreated psychosis. Residing in a developed rather than a developing country is also associated with a poorer long-term course. The diagnostic stability of schizophrenia is less well studied. The positive predictive value exceeds 90%, and preliminary findings from the 10-year follow-up of the Suffolk County Mental Health Project cohort have found that the agreement across time increased from k = .52 (baseline to 10 years) to k = .76 (6 or 24 months to 10 years). After discussing several limitations of the existing body of research, we suggest that future studies incorporate more "modifiable" risk factors into the assessment battery that could potentially be used as building blocks in experimental intervention designs.
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“Course qualifiers allow the differentiation of first- and multiple-episode cases, and between acute episodes with symptoms, full or partial remission, and a chronic course due to different prognostic implications [26].”
From Mental, behavioral and neurodevelopmental disorders in the ICD-11: an international perspective on key changes and controversies (2020) · cites this paper as [26]
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
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Predictors of recovery from psychosis
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McLean-Harvard International First-Episode Project
Salvatore, P., Baldessarini, R. J., Tohen, M. F., Khalsa, H.-M. K., Sanchez-Toledo, J. P., Zarate, C. A., Vieta, E., & Maggini, C. (2010) · The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry · doi:10.4088/jcp.09m05311yel · Cited by 100
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“In adults, surprisingly little attention has been given to longterm diagnostic stability (based on follow-ups of more than 10 years; for a review see Bromet et al., 2005 ).”
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Strassnig, M., Kotov, R., Fochtmann, L. J., Kalin, M. L., Bromet, E. J., & Harvey, P. D. (2018) · Schizophrenia Research · doi:10.1016/j.schres.2018.02.009 · Cited by 61
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BackgroundMechanisms Underlying Auditory Hallucinations—Understanding Perception without Stimulus
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“About half of first-episode patients studied will still have positive and/or negative symptoms a decade later [131], and an international 15- and 25-year follow-up study [132] showed reasonably heterogeneous outcomes, fitting with the concept of a spectrum disorder.”
Duration of Postictal Psychotic Episodes
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“This is consistent with studies on functional psychosis that have shown poor outcomes in patients with a family history of psychosis (Verdoux et al., 1996; Bromet et al., 2005).”
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“controls included in the test set, (6) patients included and not included in the dataset and (7) controls included and not included in the dataset.”
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The Impact of Cannabis and Stimulant Disorders on Diagnostic Stability in Psychosis
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“50)* Other psychoses 13,998 (33) 6,548 (38) 7,450 (30) 0.”
Hegelstad, W. T. V., Haahr, U., Larsen, T. K., Auestad, B., Barder, H. E., Evensen, J. H., Joa, I., Johannessen, J. O., Langeveld, J., Melle, I. S., et al. (2012) · Schizophrenia Research · doi:10.1016/j.schres.2012.10.027 · Cited by 44
“negative symptoms of psychosis after ten years, however results vary substantially (Lieberman, 1993; Eaton et al., 1998; Ho et al., 2000; Bromet et al., 2005; Malla et al., 2006).”
Rocca, P., Montemagni, C., Castagna, F., Giugiario, M., Scalese, M., & Bogetto, F. (2009) · Progress in Neuro-Psychopharmacology and Biological Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.pnpbp.2009.01.002 · Cited by 38
“The factors identified are not always consistent across studies but cognitive dysfunctions and negative symptoms emerged as the most reliable (Bromet et al., 2005; Grant and Beck, 2008; Green, 1996; Milev et al., 2005).”
Incarceration Rates of Persons With First-Admission Psychosis
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“This possibility is supported by Bromet et al. (2005) who found that in FEP patients, a SCID diagnosis at baseline was less predictive of diagnosis at 10 years compared to a SCID diagnosis determined at a later time point.”
ResultKašpárek, T., Přikryl, R., Schwarz, D., Kučerová, H., Mareček, R., Mikl, M., Vanicek, J., & Češková, E. (2009) · Progress in Neuro-Psychopharmacology and Biological Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.pnpbp.2009.07.025 · Cited by 37
“A substantial proportion of the patients have unfavorable or poor outcomes, with severe deterioration of their functional competence (Bromet et al., 2005).”
BackgroundIs the course and outcome of schizophrenia better in the ‘developing’ world?
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“In another review Bromet et al. (2005) focused on the diagnostic stability and outcome of schizophrenia as determined from long-term follow-up studies (some of the studies are shown in Table 6) initiated within the past 30 years.”
BackgroundPsychiatric epidemiology: Challenges and opportunities
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“In some earlier studies the mode of onset was not predictive of any long-term outcome measures [37], but there are some studies in which insidious onset has been associated with a poorer outcome [3] and acute onset with a favourable outcome [5].”
Lasalvia, A., Tosato, S., Brambilla, P., Bertani, M., Bonetto, C., Cristofalo, D., Bissoli, S., Santi, K. D., Lazzarotto, L., Zanatta, G. D. A. C., et al. (2012) · Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences · doi:10.1017/s2045796012000315 · Cited by 31
“In short, we would advocate that future outcome studies be designed more programmatically by including and testing potentially ‘modifiable’ risk factors that can subsequently be evaluated in experimental clinical research (Bromet et al. 2005).”
BackgroundDiagnosis of schizophrenia: Consistency across information sources and stability of the condition
Harvey, P. D., Heaton, R. K., Carpenter, W. T., Green, M. F., Gold, J. M., & Schoenbaum, M. (2012) · Schizophrenia Research · doi:10.1016/j.schres.2012.03.026 · Cited by 30
“Of the cases who did not receive a schizophrenia diagnosis at baseline, 20% received a schizophrenia diagnosis at their next assessment (Bromet et al., 2005: still less than the 2 year requirement for SSD disability).”
BackgroundResultKingston, T., Scully, P. J., Browne, D. J., Baldwin, P. A., Kinsella, A., Russell, V., O’Callaghan, E., & Waddington, J. L. (2013) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s003329171300041x · Cited by 31
“Thereafter, long-term (in)stability of diagnosis may yield important information as to their import: do initial diagnoses remain stable, diverge, or converge to a smaller number of more highly populated categories that might be considered fundamental diagnostic nodes? One essential strategy for addressing the challeng…”
BackgroundClassifying psychosis – Challenges and opportunities
Gäebel, W., Zielasek, J., & Cleveland, H.-R. (2012) · International Review of Psychiatry · doi:10.3109/09540261.2012.737313 · Cited by 28
Long-term follow-up of all-cause and unnatural death in young people with first-episode psychosis
Yuen, K., Harrigan, S., Mackinnon, A. J., Harris, M., Yuen, H. P., Henry, L. P., Jackson, H. J., Herrman, H., & McGorry, P. D. (2014) · Schizophrenia Research · doi:10.1016/j.schres.2014.07.042 · Cited by 25
“Bromet et al. (2005) estimated suicide at 10% for schizophrenia cohorts prospectively followed up over 10 years, whilst Kua et al.”
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Diagnostic stability of schizophrenia: A systematic review
Palomar-Ciria, N., Cegla-Schvartzman, F., López-Moríñigo, J.-D., Bello, H. J., Ovejero, S., & Baca‐García, E. (2019) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2019.04.020 · Cited by 27
Synaptic Density in Early Stages of Psychosis and Clinical High Risk
Blasco, M. B., Aji, K. N., Ramos-Jiménez, C., Leppert, I. R., Tardif, C. L., Cohen, J. P., Rusjan, P., & Mizrahi, R. (2024) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2024.3608 · Cited by 22
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Hui, C. L. M., Poon, V. W.-Y., Kwok, V. S.-K., Chang, W. C., Chan, S. K. W., Lee, E. H. M., & Chen, E. Y. H. (2015) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2015.04.047 · Cited by 20
“In addition, a more acute onset often confers a better prognosis than gradual onset (Bromet et al., 2005).”
BackgroundChien, V. H., & Compton, M. T. (2008) · Early Intervention in Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/j.1751-7893.2008.00061.x · Cited by 20
Long‐term effects of a community intervention for early identification of first‐episode psychosis
Cassidy, C., Schmitz, N., Norman, R. M. G., Manchanda, R., & MALLA, A. K. (2008) · Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0447.2008.01188.x · Cited by 19
Jung, S., Kim, W.-H., Choi, H., Kang, M., Lee, J.-S., Bae, J. N., & Kim, C. (2011) · Psychiatry Investigation · doi:10.4306/pi.2011.8.1.22 · Cited by 19
Is poor premorbid functioning a risk factor for suicide attempts in first-admission psychosis?
Bakst, S. S., Rabinowitz, J., & Bromet, E. J. (2009) · Schizophrenia Research · doi:10.1016/j.schres.2009.11.005 · Cited by 19
“Sample and Procedures Details about the design of the Suffolk County Mental Health Project (SCMHP) can be found elsewhere (Bromet et al., 1996; Bromet et al., 2005).”
BackgroundSelf-citationBitan, D. T., Grossman‐Giron, A., Alon, G., Mendlovic, S., Bloch, Y., & Segev, A. (2018) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/s12888-018-1897-2 · Cited by 18
“As schizophrenia is viewed to be a relatively clear diagnosis [23], we assumed that even frequent cases of inaccurate diagnosis would rarely rise above the 10% mark.”
BackgroundDiagnostic Stability in Bipolar Disorder: A Narrative Review
Cegla-Schvartzman, F., Ovejero, S., López‐Castromán, J., & Baca‐García, E. (2018) · Harvard Review of Psychiatry · doi:10.1097/hrp.0000000000000187 · Cited by 21
Gülöksüz, S., & van Os, J. (2021) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2021.618842 · Cited by 23
Three-Year Outcome of Treatment in an Early Psychosis Program
Addington, J., & Addington, D. E. (2009) · The Canadian Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1177/070674370905400907 · Cited by 18
Eaton, W. W., Chen, C., & Bromet, E. J. (2011) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9780470976739.ch16 · Cited by 18
Self-citationBjörkenstam, E., Björkenstam, C., Hjern, A., Reutfors, J., & Bodén, R. (2013) · Schizophrenia Research · doi:10.1016/j.schres.2013.07.011 · Cited by 19
Calidad de vida, apoyo social y deterioro en una muestra de personas con trastorno mental grave
Bayón, D. N., Delgado, S. G.-H., Ramírez, O. C., & Toral, A. C. (2008) · Psychosocial Intervention · doi:10.4321/s1132-05592008000300008 · Cited by 17
Käkelä, J., Marttila, R., Keskinen, E., Veijola, J. M., Isohanni, M. K., Koivumaa-Honkanen, H. T., Haapea, M., Jääskeläinen, E., & Miettunen, J. (2016) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2016.12.040 · Cited by 17
“The earlier literature has often considered the family history of psychosis a sign of poor outcome in schizophrenia, although there are not many studies to support this reckoning (Bromet et al., 2005; Esterberg et al., 2010; Käkelä et al., 2014).”
Inchausti, L., Gorostiza, I., Torres, M. Á. G., & Oraá, R. (2023) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2023.115475 · Cited by 16
Predictors of schizophrenia in patients with a first episode of psychosis.
Ramírez, N., Arranz, B., Salavert, J., Álvarez, E., Corripio, I., Dueñas, R., Pérez, V., & San, L. (2010) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2009.03.013 · Cited by 17
Treatment-Refractory Schizophrenia: Definition and Assessment
Tracy, D. K., & Shergill, S. S. (2014) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-45257-4_1 · Cited by 15
The Effect of Paternal Age on Relapse in First-Episode Schizophrenia
Hui, C. L. M., Chiu, C. P. Y., Li, Y., Law, C.-W., Chang, W. C., Chan, S. K. W., Lee, E. H. M., Sham, P. C., & Chen, E. Y. H. (2015) · The Canadian Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1177/070674371506000803 · Cited by 15
Therapeutic Alliance, Illness Awareness, and Number of Hospitalizations for Schizophrenia
Prince, J. D. (2007) · The Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease · doi:10.1097/01.nmd.0000253796.08183.52 · Cited by 15
“…while those with multiple stays are investigated to address life quality constraints and high costs accompanying recidivism (Birchwood et al., 1998; Bromet et al., 2005; Craig et al., 2000; Lieberman et al., 1998; Malla and Norman, 2002; Olfson et al., 1999; Penn et al., 2005; Roick et al., 2004;…”
BackgroundDiagnostic stability and outcome after first episode psychosis
Gale‐Grant, O., Dazzan, P., Lappin, J., Donoghue, K., Reininghaus, U., Croudace, T. J., Jones, P. B., Murray, R. M., Fearon, P., Doody, G. A., et al. (2020) · Journal of Mental Health · doi:10.1080/09638237.2020.1818191 · Cited by 14
Cuesta, M. J., Papiol, S., Ibáñez, B., de Jalón, E. G., Sánchez-Torres, A. M., Gil‐Berrozpe, G. J., Moreno-Izco, L., Zarzuela, A., Fañanás, L., Peralta, V., et al. (2023) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291723000351 · Cited by 14
Diagnostic Stability of Functional Psychosis: A Systematic Review
Chang, W. C., Chan, S. S. M., & Chung, D. W. S. (2009) · Hong Kong journal of psychiatry · Cited by 14
Diagnosis and Classification of the Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders
Mamah, D. T., & Barch, D. M. (2011) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-007-0837-2_2 · Cited by 13
Hung, Y., Yang, S., Kuo, C., & Lin, S. (2017) · Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences · doi:10.1111/pcn.12629 · Cited by 12
The MMPI ‐2 in chronic psychiatric illness
Bosch, P., van Luijtelaar, G., van den Noort, M., Schenkwald, J., Kueppenbender, N., Lim, S., Egger, J. I. M., & Coenen, A. M. L. (2014) · Scandinavian Journal of Psychology · doi:10.1111/sjop.12152 · Cited by 11
Ajnakina, O., Lally, J., Forti, M. D., Stilo, S. A., Kolliakou, A., Gardner-Sood, P., Dazzan, P., Pariante, C. M., Marques, T. R., Mondelli, V., et al. (2017) · Schizophrenia Research · doi:10.1016/j.schres.2017.07.042 · Cited by 11
One-Year Stability of Diagnosis in First-Episode Nonaffective Psychosis: Influence of Sex
Chaves, A. C., Addington, J., Seeman, M. V., & Addington, D. E. (2006) · The Canadian Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1177/070674370605101108 · Cited by 10
Compton, M. T., Berez, C., & Walker, E. F. (2014) · Clinical Schizophrenia & Related Psychoses · doi:10.3371/csrp.cobe.103114 · Cited by 10
Monk, N. J., Cunningham, R., Stanley, J., Crengle, S. M., Fitzjohn, J., Kerdemelidis, M., Lockett, H., McLachlan, A., Waitoki, W., & Lacey, C. J. (2024) · Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1177/00048674241270981 · Cited by 8
“Consistent with previous research with young FEP cohorts (Bromet et al., 2005; Simon et al., 2018; Wiersma et al., 1998; Yuen et al., 2014), we found that suicide and accidents (in particular, accidental poisonings) accounted for approximately 80% of mortality with a recorded cause in the 15 years…”
Short-term diagnostic stability among re-admitted psychiatric in-patients in Eldoret, Kenya
Atwoli, L., Ndambuki, D., Owiti, P., Manguro, G., & Omulimi, N. (2012) · African Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.4314/ajpsy.v15i2.15 · Cited by 8
Düring, S. W., Nordgaard, J., & Mårtensson, S. (2020) · Nordic Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1080/08039488.2020.1793381 · Cited by 6
Bernardo, M., Amoretti, S., Cuesta, M. J., Parellada, M., Mezquida, G., González-Pinto, A. M., Bergé, D., Lobo, A., Aguilar, E. J., Usall, J., et al. (2021) · Revista de Psiquiatría y Salud Mental (English Edition) · doi:10.1016/j.rpsmen.2021.08.001 · Cited by 6
Ponizovsky, A. M., Grinshpoon, A., Pugachev, I., Nahon, D., Ritsner, M. S., & Abramowitz, M. Z. (2006) · PubMed · Cited by 6
The role of affective states in computational psychiatry
Benrimoh, D. A., Smith, R. S., Diaconescu, A. O., Friesen, T., Jalali, S., Mikuš, N., Gschwandtner, L. P., Gandhi, J., Horga, G., & Powers, A. R. (2025) · The International Journal of Neuropsychopharmacology · doi:10.1093/ijnp/pyaf049 · Cited by 7
“121,148,149 Interestingly, reduced neural pathology in healthy voice hearers compared to patients with schizophrenia has been observed.”
Terrisse, R., Stéphan, F., Walter, M., & Lemey, C. (2025) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2025.01.015 · Cited by 6
Suárez‐Pinilla, P., Suárez‐Pinilla, M., Setién‐Suero, E., de la Foz, V. O., Son, J. M.-V., Vázquez-Bourgón, J., Gómez‐Revuelta, M., Juncal‐Ruíz, M., Ayesa‐Arriola, R., & Crespo‐Facorro, B. (2021) · Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica · doi:10.1111/acps.13344 · Cited by 4
Klonsky, E. D., Kotov, R., Bakst, S. S., Rabinowitz, J., & Bromet, E. J. (2012) · Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior · doi:10.1111/j.1943-278x.2011.0066.x · Cited by 4
Self-citationLong-term course and outcome of schizophrenia
Allardyce, J., & van Os, J. (2008) · Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.mppsy.2008.07.015 · Cited by 4
The Natural History of the Course and Outcome of Schizophrenia
Allardyce, J., & van Os, J. (2009) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-0913-8_3 · Cited by 4
Robles, R., Fresán, A., Real, T., Domínguez‐Martínez, T., Rascón, M. L., Hernández, O., Muñoz, C., González, A., Brunet, F., Baleige, A., et al. (2020) · Psychosis · doi:10.1080/17522439.2020.1807591 · Cited by 3
First admissions for psychoses in Eastern Piedmont-Italy
Zeppegno, P., Probo, M., Ferrante, D., Lavatelli, L., Airoldi, P., Magnani, C., & Torre, E. (2009) · The European Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.4321/s0213-61632009000300004 · Cited by 3
Metadata
- Authors
- Bromet, E. J.
- Affiliations
- Stony Brook University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Bromet, E. J
- ORCID
- Bromet, E. J
- Venue
- Schizophrenia Bulletin
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2005-07-27
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 639-649
- ISSN
- 0586-7614 (ISSN-L)
- 1745-1707
- OpenAlex
- W2138826206
- Cited by
- 129
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 5 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 20
- FWCI
- 5.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Schizophrenia Bulletin (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Mental Health (R01MH044801, MH44801)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Mental Health and Psychiatry
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending
- Keywords
- schizophrenia, long-term outcomes
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Diagnosis, Differential, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, New York, Prognosis, Risk Factors, Schizophrenia, Schizophrenic Psychology, Severity of Illness Index, Suicide, Cohort Studies
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