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Cited by 36Sleep and Work-Related FatigueCircadian rhythm and melatoninSleep and related disorders

Prediction of probabilistic sleep distributions following travel across multiple time zones

Open access
Darwent, David, Dawson, Drew, Roach, Greg D.·2010·SLEEP
DOI 10.1093/sleep/33.2.185PMC PMC2816963
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Abstract

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To parameterize and validate a model to estimate average sleep times for long-haul aviation pilots during layovers following travel across multiple time zones. The model equations were based on a weighted distribution of domicile- and local-time sleepers, and included algorithms to account for sleep loss and circadian re-synchronization. DESIGN: Sleep times were collected from participants under normal commercial operating conditions using diaries and wrist activity monitors. PARTICIPANTS: Participants included a total of 306 long-haul pilots (113 captains, 120 first officers, and 73 second officers). MEASUREMENT AND RESULTS: The model was parameterized based on the average sleep/wake times observed during international flight patterns from Australia to London and Los Angeles (global R2 = 0.72). The parameterized model was validated against the average sleep/wake times observed during flight patterns from Australia to London (r2 = 0.85), Los Angeles (r2 = 0.79), New York (r2 = 0.80), and Johannesburg (r2 = 0.73). Goodness-of-fit was poorer when the parameterized model equations were used to predict the variance across the sleep/wake cycles of individual pilots (R2 = 0.42, 0.35, 0.31, and 0.28 for the validation flight patterns, respectively), in part because of substantial inter-individual variability in sleep timing and duration. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to estimate average sleep times during layovers in international patterns with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Models of this type could form the basis of a stand-alone application to estimate the likelihood that a given duty schedule provides pilots, on average, with an adequate opportunity to sleep.

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  • Sleep disorders screening in addition to circadian approaches and scheduled napping has shown effectiveness in improving safety.

    “To address these concerns, sleep disorders screening in addition to circadian approaches and scheduled napping have shown effectiveness in improving safety.189–197”

    From Sleep, Health, and Society (2017) · cites this paper as [189]

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  1. [36]36. Spencer MB, Robertson KA. Aircrew fatigue: A review of research undertaken on behalf of the UK Civil Aviation Authority. UK CAA Paper 2005/04, 2005.

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Authors
Darwent, D., Dawson, D., & Roach, G. D.
Affiliations
University of South Australia (AU)
Corresponding author
Darwent, David
ORCID
Dawson, Drew
Venue
SLEEP
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2010-02
Volume
33
Issue
2
Pages
185-195
ISSN
  • 0161-8105 (ISSN-L)
  • 1550-9109
DOI
10.1093/sleep/33.2.185
PMC
PMC2816963
OpenAlex
W123086395
Cited by
36
References
41
Citations by year
2025: 4 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 2 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 1 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 1
FWCI
4.19
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • SLEEP (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Acquire (CQUniversity) (submittedVersion)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
Australian Research Council
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Sleep and Work-Related Fatigue
  • Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Endocrine and Autonomic Systems › Circadian rhythm and melatonin
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Sleep and related disorders
Keywords
sleep timing, time zone travel, sleep deprivation, sleep-wake cycle, sleep duration, interindividual variability
MeSH terms
Aerospace Medicine, Algorithms, Circadian Rhythm, Computer Simulation, Health Surveys, Humans, Occupational Diseases, Sleep, Sleep Deprivation, Software, South Australia, Travel, Wakefulness, Jet Lag Syndrome, Actigraphy

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