Development and Validation of a Mortality Prediction Model for Patients Receiving 14 Days of Mechanical Ventilation

Hough, Catherine L.; Caldwell, Ellen S.; Cox, Christopher E.; Douglas, Ivor S.; Kahn, Jeremy M.; White, Douglas B.; Seeley, Eric J.; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I.; Rubenfeld, Gordon D.; Angus, Derek C.; Carson, Shannon S.

doi:10.1097/ccm.0000000000001205

Cited by 80Sepsis Diagnosis and TreatmentRespiratory Support and MechanismsNosocomial Infections in ICU

Development and Validation of a Mortality Prediction Model for Patients Receiving 14 Days of Mechanical Ventilation

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Hough, Catherine L., Caldwell, Ellen S., Cox, Christopher E., Douglas, Ivor S., Kahn, Jeremy M., White, Douglas B., Seeley, Eric J., Bangdiwala, Shrikant I. +3 more·2015·Critical Care Medicine

DOI 10.1097/ccm.0000000000001205PMC PMC4788381

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Abstract

OBJECTIVES: The existing risk prediction model for patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation is not applicable until after 21 days of mechanical ventilation. We sought to develop and validate a mortality prediction model for patients earlier in the ICU course using data from day 14 of mechanical ventilation. DESIGN: Multicenter retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Forty medical centers across the United States. PATIENTS: Adult patients receiving at least 14 days of mechanical ventilation. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Predictor variables were measured on day 14 of mechanical ventilation in the development cohort and included in a logistic regression model with 1-year mortality as the outcome. Variables were sequentially eliminated to develop the ProVent 14 model. This model was then generated in the validation cohort. A simplified prognostic scoring rule (ProVent 14 Score) using categorical variables was created in the development cohort and then tested in the validation cohort. Model discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. Four hundred ninety-one patients and 245 patients were included in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The most parsimonious model included age, platelet count, requirement for vasopressors, requirement for hemodialysis, and nontrauma admission. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for the ProVent 14 model using continuous variables was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.83) in the development cohort and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.72-0.83) in the validation cohort. The ProVent 14 Score categorized age at 50 and 65 years old and platelet count at 100×10(9)/L and had similar discrimination as the ProVent 14 model in both cohorts. CONCLUSION: Using clinical variables available on day 14 of mechanical ventilation, the ProVent 14 model can identify patients receiving prolonged mechanical ventilation with a high risk of mortality within 1 year.

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Additional file 1 of Extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal for treatment of exacerbated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ORION): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial
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Additional file 3 of Extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal for treatment of exacerbated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ORION): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial
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Additional file 2 of Extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal for treatment of exacerbated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ORION): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial
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Self-citation

Validation and Early Application of the ProVent Score in a Contemporary ICU Cohort
KANAMGODE, S. S., Cucchi, E. W., Anders, S., Fouayzi, H., HUGHES, A., Lin, H., Bosch, N. A., & Walkey, A. J. (2026) · Journal of Intensive Care Medicine · doi:10.1177/08850666261447248
Development And Validation Of A Mortality Prediction Model For Patients Receiving At Least 14 Days Of Mechanical Ventilation
Carson, S. S., Kahn, J. M., Hough, C. L., Douglas, I. S., Cox, C. E., Seeley, E. J., Bangdiwala, S. I., Rubenfeld, G. D., & White, D. B. (2011) · doi:10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2011.183.1_meetingabstracts.a3167 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
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Validation and Extension of the Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation Prognostic Model (ProVent) Score for Predicting 1-Year Mortality after Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation
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A multicenter mortality prediction model for patients receiving prolonged mechanical ventilation*
Carson, S. S., Kahn, J. M., Hough, C. L., Seeley, E. J., White, D. B., Douglas, I. S., Cox, C. E., Caldwell, E., Bangdiwala, S. I., Garrett, J. M., et al. (2011) · Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1097/ccm.0b013e3182387d43 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
Self-citation
A prognostic model for one-year mortality in patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation*
Carson, S. S., Garrett, J. M., Hanson, L. C., Lanier, J., Govert, J., Brake, M. C., Landucci, D. L., Cox, C. E., & Carey, T. S. (2008) · Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1097/ccm.0b013e31817b8925 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
Self-citation

Authors: Hough, C. L., Caldwell, E. S., Cox, C. E., Douglas, I. S., Kahn, J. M., White, D. B., Seeley, E. J., Bangdiwala, S. I., Rubenfeld, G. D., Angus, D. C., & Carson, S. S.
Affiliations: University of Pittsburgh (US)
University of Washington (US)
Duke University (US)
University of Colorado Anschutz (US)
University of California, San Francisco (US)
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
Sunnybrook Health Science Centre (CA)
ORCID: Hough, Catherine L.
Caldwell, Ellen S.
Cox, Christopher E.
Douglas, Ivor S.
Kahn, Jeremy M.
White, Douglas B.
Seeley, Eric J.
Bangdiwala, Shrikant I.
Angus, Derek C.
Carson, Shannon S.
Venue: Critical Care Medicine
Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Published: 2015-11
Volume: 43
Issue: 11
Pages: 2339-2345
ISSN: 0090-3493 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1097/ccm.0000000000001205
PMC: PMC4788381
OpenAlex: W2325294495
Cited by: 79
References: 42
Citations by year: 2026: 4 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 4
FWCI: 7.32
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Locations: Critical Care Medicine (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R01HL109823, R21HL094975)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Sepsis Diagnosis and Treatment
Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Respiratory Support and Mechanisms
Health Sciences › Medicine › Critical Care and Intensive Care Medicine › Nosocomial Infections in ICU
Keywords: mortality prediction, prolonged mechanical ventilation, prognostic scoring, one-year mortality, platelet count, vasopressor requirement, hemodialysis, age, intensive care unit patients
MeSH terms: Academic Medical Centers, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Cause of Death, Critical Care, Female, Humans, Intensive Care Units, Male, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Respiration, Artificial, Retrospective Studies, Sex Factors, Time Factors, United States, Cohort Studies, Survival Rate, Logistic Models, Hospital Mortality, Risk Assessment, Area Under Curve

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Development and Validation of a Mortality Prediction Model for Patients Receiving 14 Days of Mechanical Ventilation

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