Global Warming, Elevational Range Shifts, and Lowland Biotic Attrition in the Wet Tropics
Abstract
Many studies suggest that global warming is driving species ranges poleward and toward higher elevations at temperate latitudes, but evidence for range shifts is scarce for the tropics, where the shallow latitudinal temperature gradient makes upslope shifts more likely than poleward shifts. Based on new data for plants and insects on an elevational transect in Costa Rica, we assess the potential for lowland biotic attrition, range-shift gaps, and mountaintop extinctions under projected warming. We conclude that tropical lowland biotas may face a level of net lowland biotic attrition without parallel at higher latitudes (where range shifts may be compensated for by species from lower latitudes) and that a high proportion of tropical species soon faces gaps between current and projected elevational ranges.
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In montane habitats, upward migrations into cooler refugia can spell the difference between survival and extinction as temperatures rise at lower elevations.
“In montane habitats upward migrations into cooler refugia can spell the difference between survival and extinction as temperatures rise at lower elevations (119).”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [119]
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- Authors
- Colwell, R. K., Brehm, G., Cardelús, C. L., Gilman, A. C., & Longino, J. T.
- Affiliations
- University of Connecticut (US)
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2008-10-10
- Volume
- 322
- Issue
- 5899
- Pages
- 258-261
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2103209538
- Cited by
- 1,375
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 64 · 2025: 61 · 2024: 88 · 2023: 72 · 2022: 75 · 2021: 88 · 2020: 124 · 2019: 106 · 2018: 65 · 2017: 66 · 2016: 83 · 2015: 85 · 2014: 65 · 2013: 86 · 2012: 79
- FWCI
- 29.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Smithsonian Digital Repository (Smithsonian Institution) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Botany and Plant Ecology Studies
- Keywords
- global warming, altitudinal range shift, tropical plants, tropical insects, latitudinal temperature gradient, species range projections, Costa Rica
- MeSH terms
- Acclimatization, Altitude, Animals, Ants, Costa Rica, Demography, Geography, Insecta, Moths, Plants, Population Dynamics, Temperature, Tropical Climate, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem, Rubiaceae, Animal Migration, Biodiversity
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