Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates
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As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves toward climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129-116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are uncommon in RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5, characterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence, RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity.
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Over the last ∼50 million years, global average surface temperatures steadily decreased from nearly 30°C during the early Eocene to less than 10°C during the most recent Pleistocene glacial epoch.
“For example, over the last ∼50 million years, global average surface temperatures have steadily decreased from nearly 30°C during the early Eocene (Burke et al. 2018, Hansen et al. 2013) to less than 10°C during the most recent Pleistocene glacial epoch (e.g., Tierney et al. 2020).”
From The History of Ocean Oxygenation (2022) · cites this paper as Burke et al. 2018
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- Authors
- Burke, K. D., Williams, J. W., Chandler, M. A., Haywood, A. M., Lunt, D. J., & Otto-Bliesner, B. L.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305
- Corresponding author
- Burke, K. D.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2018-12-10
- Volume
- 115
- Issue
- 52
- Pages
- 13288-13293
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC6310841
- OpenAlex
- W2904881360
- Cited by
- 624
- References
- 61
- Citations by year
- 2026: 62 · 2025: 83 · 2024: 115 · 2023: 114 · 2022: 92 · 2021: 79 · 2020: 56 · 2019: 22 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 19.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- Explore Bristol Research (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- NASA STI Repository (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1144752, DEB-1353896)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- Pliocene climate, Eocene climate, climate analogs, climate change projections, RCP8.5, RCP4.5, mid-Pliocene, Last Interglacial, mid-Holocene, climate change adaptation, Earth system models
- MeSH terms
- Climate, Models, Theoretical, Paleontology, Temperature, Ecosystem
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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