The Aggravated Struggle for Regional Power in the Middle East: American Allies Saudi Arabia and Israel versus Iran

May combine two claims.

In 2014 and 2018, Saudi Arabia produced 11.519 and 12.287 million barrels per day, respectively, whereas Iran produced 3.714 mbd in 2014 and 4.715 in 2018.

“In 2014 and 2018, Saudi Arabia produced 11.519 and 12.287 million barrels per day (mbd), respectively, whereas Iran's oil production was comparatively low: 3.714 mbd in 2014 and 4.715 in 2018.”

May combine two claims.

Saudi Arabia and Iran benefited from the oil price upsurge to very divergent degrees because Saudi production is much higher than Iran's.

“Yet, Saudi Arabia and Iran benefitted from this strong upsurge in oil prices to very divergent degrees, as Saudi production is much higher than that of Iran.”

May combine two claims.

In 1998, Saudi Arabia produced 9.267 mbd and Iran 3.885 mbd, so the gap in production levels had been much smaller.

“In 1998, when Saudi Arabia produced 9.267 mbd per day and Iran 3.885 mbd per day, the gap in production levels had been much smaller (BP, 2019).”

• cites BP, 2019Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

After 1998, oil prices increased with only two exceptions until exceeding USD 120 per barrel in 2011, remained above USD 100 for two years, dropped in 2014, and fell to between USD 45.76 and USD 71.31 in 2015-2018, still higher than 1990s levels.

“After 1998 -the year when the average annual oil price had reached its lowest level since the oil price revolution of 1974 and a barrel of crude oil was traded for only USD 19.12 -the oil price increased -with only two exceptions 2001 and 2009 -every year until it exceeded the level of USD 120 per barrel in 2011.i In the following two years, the annual average price remained above USD 100 before”

May combine two claims.

Primordialism fails to distinguish between religious communities and states, does not conceptualize the actorness and unity of Shia and Sunni, and remains unclear how Shia and Sunni communities interact.

“The approach fails to distinguish between different analytical images: religious communities and states; it does not conceptualize the actorness of Shia and Sunni and their unity: there is not one Shia and one Sunni entity; and it remains unclear how Shia and Sunni communities interact (Valbjørn, 2017).”

• cites Valbjørn, 2017Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Primordialism has trouble explaining the stable Iranian-Syrian alliance because the Syrian regime is secular, and even if the Assad regime were Alawi, Alawites are distinct from Twelver Shia Islam prevalent in Iran.

“Moreover, the approach has trouble explaining the fairly stable Iranian-Syrian alliance, as the Syrian regime is rather secular; yet, even if the misleading construction of the Assad regime as an Alawi dictatorship were upheld, primordialism would face difficulties because the Alawites are clearly distinct from Twelver Shia Islam, which is highly prevalent in Iran (Goldsmith, 2016).”

• cites Goldsmith, 2016Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In International Relations, structural realism, institutionalism, and liberalism are the three major rationalist schools of thought.

“In the discipline of International Relations, there are three major schools of thought to be subsumed under rationalism: structural realism (Waltz, 2010), institutionalism (often referred to as neo-liberalism; Keohane, 1984), and liberalism (Moravcsik, 1997).”

• cites Waltz, 2010Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Keohane, 1984Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Moravcsik, 1997 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

At the beginning of the 21st century, the rivalries with Iran of American allies Saudi Arabia and Israel have become the most significant regional power conflicts in the Middle East, causing all other regional conflicts to pale in significance.

“At the beginning of the 21st century, the rivalries with Iran of American allies Saudi Arabia and Israel have advanced to become the most significant regional power conflicts in the Middle East and cause all other regional conflicts to pale in significance.”

May combine two claims.

In the 21st century, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Iran not only gained power resources on a regional level but also projected them on the region more actively, as apparent in increased engagement in the Syrian civil war.

“In the 21st century, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Iran not only gained power resources on a regional level but also projected them on the region more actively, as for instance becomes apparent in the increased engagement of regional powers in the Syrian civil war.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Instrumentalism posits that political leaderships abuse religious identities to legitimize costly foreign policies, and their real motive is to exert power.

“Instead it posits that political leaderships (ab)use these identities to legitimize their costly foreign policies.Thus, their real motive is to exert power.”

May combine two claims.

Instrumentalism does not always tap into the full potential of structural realism and does so to an even lesser degree than institutionalism and liberalism.

“Yet, it will be shown that instrumentalism, which is theoretically grounded in realism, does not always tap into the full potential of structural realism and to an even lesser degree than two other rationalist schools of thought: institutionalism and liberalism.”

May combine two claims.

The wars in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003) weakened immediate Iranian adversaries and resulted in Iranian relative gains.

“The wars in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003) weakened immediate Iranian adversaries and thus resulted in Iranian relative gains (Kaye et al., 2011, pp. 16-17).”

• cites Kaye et al., 2011Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

Compared with primordialism, conceptualizing politicization as instrumentalization achieves significant progress of knowledge.

“Compared with primordialism, the idea of conceptualizing politicization as instrumentalization achieves significant progress of knowledge (cf.Samuels 1980).”

• cites Samuels 1980Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

The 2003 war ended the Iraqi-Iranian balance of power, removing the crucial structural factor preventing a confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia from unfolding.

“It was only when the 2003 war definitely ended the Iraqi-Iranian balance of power in whose wake Saudi Arabia had basked in the immediate years after the Iranian Revolution that the crucial structural factor preventing a confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia from unfolding was omitted.”

May combine two claims.

Structural realism does not perform perfectly but does rather well in explaining the aggravated power competition in the Middle East and the entanglement of the rivalries of each of the two American allies with Iran.

“It is shown that a rationalist school of thought -structural realism -does not perform perfectly but nonetheless does rather well in explaining the aggravated power competition in the Middle East and the entanglement of the rivalries of each of the two American allies with Iran.”

May combine two claims.

When the Iran nuclear deal was concluded in July 2015, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu showed strong opposition, whereas King Salman cautiously welcomed it.

“When the Comprehensive Plan of Action -colloquially known as the Iran nuclear deal -was concluded in July 2015, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu showed strong opposition to it, whereas King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, however cautiously, welcomed it (Murphy, 2015;cf. Karim, 2017, p. 79).”

• cites Murphy, 2015Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Karim, 2017Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Realism points out that states aim to gain relative rather than absolute power.

“Realism points out that states aim to gain relative rather than absolute power (Grieco, 1993).”

• cites Grieco, 1993Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Securitization is only complete if securitization attempts are effective, i.e., if the audience accepts that an issue be dealt with using means that would be considered illegitimate under regular conditions.

“Securitization is only complete if securitization attempts are effective, i.e. if the audience accepts that an issue be dealt with using means that would be considered illegitimate under regular conditions (Buzan et al., 1998, p. 27).”

• cites Buzan et al., 1998Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

The two most important cases exceeding the boundaries of a Hobbesian world also exceed the border of the Middle East: cooperation based on the NPT and social influence on international politics relevant to explaining the US-Israel friendship.

“The two most important cases of relevance to this paper that exceed the boundaries of a Hobbesian world also exceed the border of the Middle East: cooperation based on one of the more successful international regimes as constituted by the NPT; and social influence on international politics, which is relevant to explain the friendship between the USA and Israel.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Anarchy has the potential to produce different kinds of relations between states depending on the history of interactions: Hobbesian, Lockean, and Kantian.

“Wendt (1992, p. 408) argues that in dependency on the history of interactions between states, anarchy has the potential to produce a different kind of relations between states: a Hobbesian world of enemies, a Lockean world of egoists, and a Kantian world of friends (Wendt, 1992, p. 408;1994, p. 389).”

• cites Wendt, 1992 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Wendt, 1994 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Securitization is an extreme form of politicization created by speech acts.

“Securitization is an extreme form of politicization created by speech acts.”

• cites Buzan et al., 1998Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Williams, 2003 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Both conflicts have gained significant relevance in the Middle East due to the relative power decline of Egypt and Turkey and the American reluctance to exert its power capabilities to the fullest.

“As has been mentioned above, both conflicts have gained significant relevance in the region of the Middle East due to the relative power decline of Egypt and Turkey and the American reluctance to exert its power capabilities to the fullest in the Middle East.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Securitization policies in the regional affairs of the Middle East have a long tradition dating back to before European colonialism ended in the 1960s.

“Securitization policies in the regional affairs of the Middle East have a rather long tradition that even dates back to times before European colonialism finally ended in the 1960s.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

An approach based on social constructivism capable of embedding the insights of the three rationalist schools is needed.

“Therefore, we need an approach based on the paradigm of social constructivism that is capable of embedding the insights of the three rationalist schools of thought, that is, a positivist version (cf.Hansen, 2006).”

• cites Hansen, 2006Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Positivist constructivism differs from rationalism in that identities are prior to interests.

“What sets apart positivist constructivism from rationalism is the idea that identities are prior to interests (Wendt, 1992, p. 398).”

• cites Wendt, 1992 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Saudi Arabia actually attempted to challenge the Israeli nuclear monopoly before the current making of Saudi-Israeli cooperation, in a setting best understood by institutionalism rather than realism.

“It is often overlooked that this actually happened before the current making of the Saudi-Israeli cooperation -in a setting that, however, is best made understandable by institutionalism rather than realism.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Societal actors cannot unfold a significant role in foreign policy decision-making processes in the Middle East.

“Therefore, societal actors cannot unfold a significant role in foreign policy decision-making processes.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The Middle East stands out for its predominance of authoritarian regimes.

May combine two claims.

At the 2015 NPT Review Conference, Saudi Arabia submitted a statement to the United Nations demanding that Israel accede to the NPT and that a Middle East free of nuclear weapons be created.

“Saudi Arabia took a clear stand in favour of it by submitting a statement to the United Nations in which it demanded, with wording inspired by political institutionalism, that Israel accede to the NPT and a Middle East free of nuclear weapons be created (Al-Mouallimi, 2015).”

• cites Al-Mouallimi, 2015Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Structural realism performs well when attempting to explain aggravated regional power conflicts in the Middle East.

“In comparison to primordialism, structural realism performs well when attempting to explain aggravated regional power conflicts in the Middle East.”

May combine two claims.

Riyadh's effort at the 2015 NPT Review Conference was in vain because Israel could rely on the decisive support of the Obama Administration to block pursuit of the MENWFZ.

“However, Riyadh did so in vain, as Israel could rely on the decisive support of the Obama Administration to block pursuit of the MENWFZ (Bahgat, 2015).”

• cites Bahgat, 2015Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

In the 1970s, an initiative launched by Iran and Arab states headed by Egypt promoted the idea of a Middle East Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (MENWFZ), which was adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1974 in resolution 3263.

“Already in the 1970s, an initiative launched by Iran and Arab states headed by Egypt promoted the idea of a Middle East Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (MENWFZ), which was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 1974 in resolution 3263 (Bahgat, 2015).”

• cites Bahgat, 2015Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Until the Camp David peace treaty in 1979, the Arab-Israeli conflict was presented by both camps as a matter of supreme priority necessitating extraordinary measures.

“Until the peace treaty of Camp David in 1979, this conflict was presented by both camps as a matter of supreme priority that necessitated taking extraordinary measures.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Realism and institutionalism are at odds over whether states are primarily oriented towards relative or absolute gains.

“Yet, also realism and institutionalism are at odds with each other when it comes to the issue of whether states are primarily oriented towards relative or absolute gains (Grieco, 1993).”

• cites Grieco, 1993Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

The major source of income of both Iran and Saudi Arabia is oil exports.

“The major source of income of both Iran and Saudi Arabia is oil exports.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The major source of income of both Iran and Saudi Arabia is oil exports.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Realism sees the security dilemma as the outcome of the international system lacking a central authority, creating a self-help system all states are part of.

“Realism, by contrast, highlights structures and sees the security dilemma as the outcome of a specific feature of the international system: contrary to the domestic affairs of national political systems, the international system lacks a central authority.Thus, the anarchic structure of the international system creates a self-help system which all states are inevitably part of.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The international system is anarchic and lacks a central authority.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Realism is the most relevant of the three rationalist schools for the analysis of Middle Eastern regional relations.

“Rightly so, it is acknowledged among scholars that realism is the most relevant of the three rationalist schools of thought for the analysis of Middle Eastern regional relations.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The Arab-Israeli conflict overshadowed all regional affairs in the second half of the 20th century.

“In particular, the Arab-Israeli conflict overshadowed all regional affairs in the second half of the 20th century.”

May combine two claims.

For fifty years, Israel has maintained a monopoly over nuclear weapons in the Middle East and, until recently, as occupier of the Golan Heights, has been the only foreign power in control of strategic parts of Syrian territory.

“In both areas, Israel has held a highly privileged position for fifty years, in which it has maintained a monopoly over nuclear weapons in the Middle East and until recently, as the occupier of the Golan Heights, has been the only foreign power in control of strategic parts of Syrian territory.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

One strength of structural realism as applied to the Middle East is that it does not face any challenge explaining the high degree of power dispersion and the lack of a genuine regional hegemon.

“One of the strengths of structural realism as applied to the Middle East is that it does not face any challenge to explain the high degree of power dispersion and the lack of a genuine regional hegemon in the Middle East.”

May combine two claims.

In the current decade, there have been significant power shifts affecting both the Saudi-Iranian and the Iranian-Israeli rivalries.

“In the current decade, there have been significant power shifts affecting both the Saudi-Iranian and the Iranian-Israeli rivalries.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

A securitizing speech act differs from regular politicization in that the issue is dramatized and presented as an existential threat or supreme priority calling for extraordinary measures beyond routines and norms of everyday politics.

“Thus, what sets a securitizing speech act apart from regular politicization is that the issue is dramatized and presented as an”

• cites Buzan et al., 1998Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Williams, 2003 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Securitization enables an actor to legitimize policies that would be difficult to justify under regular conditions.

“As constructivism points out, securitization enables an actor to legitimize policies that would be difficult to justify under regular conditions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Securitization gives power politics a meaning.

“Securitization gives power politics a meaning.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Israel maintains full diplomatic relations with only three Middle Eastern countries: Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey.

“Israel maintains full diplomatic relations with only three Middle Eastern countries: Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

The military engagement of all protagonists of the regional power game in Syria is most problematic.

“Thus, the military engagement of all protagonists of the regional power game in Syria is most problematic.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Middle Eastern powers tend to mutually deny each other's legitimacy.

“Liberalism pinpoints the fact that Middle Eastern powers tend to mutually deny each other's legitimacy.”

May combine two claims.

Mutual denial of legitimacy poisons relations between Iran and Israel and between Tehran and Riyadh, as both Iran and Saudi Arabia lay claim to an exclusive leadership role in the Muslim world.

“This not only poisons the relations between Iran and Israel but also those between Tehran and Riyadh, as both Iran and Saudi Arabia lay claim to an exclusive leadership role in the Muslim world.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Securitization policies, particularly demonizing the opponent and presenting victory over it as a matter of survival, are a suitable tool to obscure the mundane machinations of power politics, thereby acquiring legitimacy for costly policies.

“Yet, dialectically speaking, securitization policies, in particular those demonizing the opponent and presenting victory over it as a matter of survival, are a suitable tool to obscure the mundane machinations of power politics, thereby acquiring legitimacy for costly policies.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Securitization's legitimizing effect applies to several cases of prominent warfare, including Israel's offensive war in 1967 and Iraq's in 1980 and 1990, and to human rights violations towards stateless people in the Middle East, particularly Kurds, Palestinians, and Sahrawi.

“This applies to several cases of prominent warfare, for instance the offensive wars of Israel in 1967and Iraq in 1980and 1990, and to human rights violations towards stateless people in the Middle East, in particular the Kurds, the Palestinians, and the Sahrawi.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Even if no actor has a strong incentive to go to war, war may occur as a result of misperceptions, dysfunctional decision-making processes, and other unreasonable factors.

“Even if no actor has a strong incentive to go to war, it may occur as a result of misperceptions, dysfunctional decision-making processes, and other 'unreasonable' factors.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Such a war becomes likelier the more complex and unclear a potential battlefield is.

“Such a war becomes the likelier the more complex and unclear a (potential) battlefield is.”

May combine two claims.

If actors, particularly Israel and Hezbollah, fail to keep their current struggles inside Syria, and if another Israeli-Lebanese war broke out, in the current situation of high regional tensions, such a war could spill over the whole of the Levant and even beyond.

“If actors, particularly Israel and Hezbollah, fail to keep their current struggles inside Syria, if, in other words, another Israeli-Lebanese war broke out, in the current situation of high regional tensions, such a war could spill over the whole of the Levant and even beyond.”