Cited by 1,369Animal Behavior and ReproductionPhysiological and biochemical adaptationsEvolution and Genetic Dynamics

Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence

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Merilä, Juha, Hendry, Andrew P.·2014·Evolutionary Applications

Abstract

Many studies have recorded phenotypic changes in natural populations and attributed them to climate change. However, controversy and uncertainty has arisen around three levels of inference in such studies. First, it has proven difficult to conclusively distinguish whether phenotypic changes are genetically based or the result of phenotypic plasticity. Second, whether or not the change is adaptive is usually assumed rather than tested. Third, inferences that climate change is the specific causal agent have rarely involved the testing – and exclusion – of other potential drivers. We here review the various ways in which the above inferences have been attempted, and evaluate the strength of support that each approach can provide. This methodological assessment sets the stage for 11 accompanying review articles that attempt comprehensive syntheses of what is currently known – and not known – about responses to climate change in a variety of taxa and in theory. Summarizing and relying on the results of these reviews, we arrive at the conclusion that evidence for genetic adaptation to climate change has been found in some systems, but is still relatively scarce. Most importantly, it is clear that more studies are needed – and these must employ better inferential methods – before general conclusions can be drawn. Overall, we hope that the present paper and special issue provide inspiration for future research and guidelines on best practices for its execution.

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  1. Reusch TBH Climate change in the oceans: evolutionary versus. phenotypically plastic responses Evolutionary Applications 2014 7 104 122 PMC3894901 24454551
  2. Whitlock MC Evolutionary inference from QST Molecular Ecology 2008 17 1885 1896 18363667

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Authors
Merilä, J., & Hendry, A. P.
Affiliations
  • University of Helsinki (FI)
  • McGill University (CA)
Corresponding author
Merilä, Juha
Venue
Evolutionary Applications
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2014-01
Volume
7
Issue
1
Pages
1-14
ISSN
  • 1752-4563 (ISSN-L)
  • 1752-4571
OpenAlex
W2007545512
Cited by
1,369
References
119
Citations by year
2026: 61 · 2025: 126 · 2024: 84 · 2023: 96 · 2022: 163 · 2021: 114 · 2020: 143 · 2019: 133 · 2018: 104 · 2017: 130 · 2016: 105 · 2015: 70 · 2014: 29 · 2013: 9
FWCI
114.29
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Evolutionary Applications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Academy of Finland (250435, 265211, 263722)
  • Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Animal Behavior and Reproduction
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Physiological and biochemical adaptations
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
Keywords
climate change, phenotypic plasticity, genetic adaptation, adaptive evolution, natural selection, causal inference, alternative explanations, inference methods

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