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Will climate change promote future invasions?
Open accessAbstract
Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in E urope, northeastern N orth America, and O ceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.
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Cited by
Scientists' warning on invasive alien species
Pyšek, P., Hulme, P. E., Simberloff, D., Bacher, S., Blackburn, T. M., Carlton, J. T., Dawson, W., Essl, F., Foxcroft, L. C., Genovesi, P., et al. (2020) · Biological Reviews · doi:10.1111/brv.12627 · Cited by 2,234
Self-citationProjecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050
Seebens, H., Bacher, S., Blackburn, T. M., Capinha, C., Dawson, W., Dullinger, S., Genovesi, P., Hulme, P. E., van Kleunen, M., Kühn, I., et al. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15333 · Cited by 722
Self-citationComplex responses of global insect pests to climate warming
Lehmann, P., Ammunét, T., Barton, M., Battisti, A., Eigenbrode, S. D., Jepsen, J. U., Kalinkat, G., Neuvonen, S., Niemelä, P., Terblanche, J. S., et al. (2020) · Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment · doi:10.1002/fee.2160 · Cited by 474
Global trade will accelerate plant invasions in emerging economies under climate change
Seebens, H., Essl, F., Dawson, W., Fuentes, N., Moser, D., Pergl, J., Pyšek, P., van Kleunen, M., Weber, E., Winter, M., et al. (2015) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13021 · Cited by 419
Biological invasions, climate change and genomics
Chown, S. L., Hodgins, K. A., Griffin, P. C., Oakeshott, J. G., Byrne, M., & Hoffmann, A. A. (2015) · Evolutionary Applications · doi:10.1111/eva.12234 · Cited by 284
Metadata
- Authors
- Bellard, C., Thuiller, W., Leroy, B., Genovesi, P., Bakkenes, M., & Courchamp, F.
- Venue
- Global Change Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-09-03
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 3740-3748
- ISSN
- 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2486
- OpenAlex
- W2098970432
- Cited by
- 725
- References
- 8
- FWCI
- 22.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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