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Cited by 26Amazonian Archaeology and EthnohistorySoil and Environmental StudiesFire effects on ecosystems

Sixteen hundred years of increasing tree cover prior to modern deforestation in Southern Amazon and Central Brazilian savannas

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Wright, Jamie L., Bomfim, Barbara, Wong, Corrine I., Marimon‐Júnior, Ben H., Marimon, Beatriz S., Silva, Lucas C. R.·2021·Global Change Biology
DOI 10.1111/gcb.15382
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Abstract

Tropical ecosystems are under increasing pressure from land‐use change and deforestation. Changes in tropical forest cover are expected to affect carbon and water cycling with important implications for climatic stability at global scales. A major roadblock for predicting how tropical deforestation affects climate is the lack of baseline conditions (i.e., prior to human disturbance) of forest–savanna dynamics. To address this limitation, we developed a long‐term analysis of forest and savanna distribution across the Amazon–Cerrado transition of central Brazil. We used soil organic carbon isotope ratios as a proxy for changes in woody vegetation cover over time in response to fluctuations in precipitation inferred from speleothem oxygen and strontium stable isotope records. Based on stable isotope signatures and radiocarbon activity of organic matter in soil profiles, we quantified the magnitude and direction of changes in forest and savanna ecosystem cover. Using changes in tree cover measured in 83 different locations for forests and savannas, we developed interpolation maps to assess the coherence of regional changes in vegetation. Our analysis reveals a broad pattern of woody vegetation expansion into savannas and densification within forests and savannas for at least the past ~1,600 years. The rates of vegetation change varied significantly among sampling locations possibly due to variation in local environmental factors that constrain primary productivity. The few instances in which tree cover declined (7.7% of all sampled profiles) were associated with savannas under dry conditions. Our results suggest a regional increase in moisture and expansion of woody vegetation prior to modern deforestation, which could help inform conservation and management efforts for climate change mitigation. We discuss the possible mechanisms driving forest expansion and densification of savannas directly (i.e., increasing precipitation) and indirectly (e.g., decreasing disturbance) and suggest future research directions that have the potential to improve climate and ecosystem models.

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  • During the past 3,000 years, forests have been mostly expanding over savanna in the southern Amazon driven by increasingly wet conditions.

    “However, during the past 3,000 years, forests have been mostly expanding over savanna in the southern Amazon driven by increasingly wet conditions28.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [28]

    The Results (section 3.2) and Conclusion report that tree cover expanded across much of the Amazon–Cerrado region, including savannas. The paper links that trend to increasing moisture, but treats precipitation as one possible contributor alongside changes in fire disturbance and other factors. Its measured reference age is about 1,600 years, not 3,000 years, so the stated duration and definitive causal attribution are not fully supported. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

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Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Wright, J. L., Bomfim, B., Wong, C. I., Marimon‐Júnior, B. H., Marimon, B. S., & Silva, L. C. R.
Affiliations
  • University of Oregon (US)
  • Environmental Studies Program Institute of Ecology & Evolution University of Oregon Eugene OR USA
  • The University of Texas at Austin (US)
  • Laboratório de Ecologia Vegetal State University of Mato Grosso Nova Xavantina Brazil
  • Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (BR)
Corresponding author
Silva, Lucas C. R.
ORCID
Venue
Global Change Biology
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2020-10-31
Volume
27
Issue
1
Pages
136-150
ISSN
  • 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
  • 1365-2486
DOI
10.1111/gcb.15382
OpenAlex
W3096320862
Cited by
26
References
2
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 5
FWCI
72.66
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (1602958)
  • University of Oregon
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History › Amazonian Archaeology and Ethnohistory
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil and Environmental Studies
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
Keywords
tree cover change, woody vegetation expansion, Cerrado-Amazon transition, rainfall variability, land use change, deforestation, carbon cycle, climate change mitigation, Central Brazil
MeSH terms
Brazil, Carbon, Conservation of Natural Resources, Humans, Soil, Trees, Ecosystem, Forests, Grassland

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