Predicting the occurrence of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) larvae in the northern Gulf of Mexico: building a classification model from archival data
Abstract
Although bluefin tuna are found throughout the Atlantic Ocean, spawning in the western Atlantic has been recorded predominantly in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) in spring. Larval bluefin tuna abundances from the northern GOM are formulated into an index used to tune the adult stock assessment, and the variability of this index is currently high. This study investigated whether some of the variability in larval bluefin tuna abundances was related to environmental conditions, by defining associations between larval bluefin tuna catch locations, and a suite of environmental variables. We hypothesized that certain habitat types, as defined by environmental variables, would be more likely to contain bluefin tuna larvae. Favorable habitat for bluefin tuna larvae was defined using a classification tree approach. Habitat within the Loop Current was generally less favorable, as were warm‐core rings, and cooler waters on the continental shelf. The location and size of favorable habitat was highly variable among years, which was reflected in the locations of larval bluefin tuna catches. The model successfully placed bluefin tuna larvae in favorable habitat with nearly 90% accuracy, but many negative stations were also located within theoretically favorable habitat. The probability of collecting larval bluefin tuna in favorable habitat was nearly twice the probability of collecting bluefin tuna larvae across all habitats (35.5 versus 21.0%). This model is a useful addition to knowledge of larval bluefin tuna distributions; however, the incorporation of variables describing finer‐scale features, such as thermal fronts, may significantly improve the model’s predictive power.
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Larval temperature preferences in the Gulf of Mexico, the Japanese Sea and the Mediterranean Sea support our results.
“Larval temperature preferences in the Gulf of Mexico, the Japanese Sea and the Mediterranean Sea support our results (Alemany et al. 2010, Muhling et al. 2010), though eggs and larvae can also be caught at 20 to 21°C in the Balearic Sea (Reglero et al. 2013).”
From Worldwide distributions of tuna larvae: revisiting hypotheses on environmental requirements for spawning habitats (2014) · cites this paper as Muhling et al. 2010
T. thynnus larvae in the Gulf are most often found at the Loop Current Frontal Zone and the boundaries of anticyclonic eddies.
“T. thynnus larvae in the Gulf are most often found at the Loop Current Frontal Zone and the boundaries of anticyclonic eddies.”
From A comparison of sampling methods for larvae of medium and large epipelagic fish species during spring SEAMAP ichthyoplankton surveys in the Gulf of Mexico (2014) · cites this paper as Muhling et al. 2010
Previous studies have associated increased larval pelagic abundance with specific mesoscale features.
“Previous studies have associated increased larval pelagic abundance with some of these specific mesoscale features (Richardson et al. 2009;Muhling et al. 2010;Rooker et al. 2012;Lindo-Atichati et al. 2012).”
From A comparison of sampling methods for larvae of medium and large epipelagic fish species during spring SEAMAP ichthyoplankton surveys in the Gulf of Mexico (2014) · cites this paper as Muhling et al. 2010
The Loop Current Frontal Zone and anticyclonic eddy boundaries are associated with off-shelf waters and lower surface chlorophyll concentrations.
“These regions are associated with off-shelf waters and lower surface chlorophyll concentrations (Muhling et al. 2010;2012;Lindo-Atichati et al. 2012).”
From A comparison of sampling methods for larvae of medium and large epipelagic fish species during spring SEAMAP ichthyoplankton surveys in the Gulf of Mexico (2014) · cites this paper as Muhling et al. 2010
In the Gulf of Mexico, bluefin tuna larvae were found most frequently in common waters outside of the warm Loop Current and associated warm-core rings, and away from higher chlorophyll continental shelf waters.
“In the GOM, BFT larvae were found most frequently in 'common waters' outside of the warm Loop Current and associated warm-core rings, and away from higher chlorophyll continental shelf waters (Muhling et al. 2010, Lindo-Atichati et al. 2012).”
From Comparison between environmental characteristics of larval bluefin tuna Thunnus thynnus habitat in the Gulf of Mexico and western Mediterranean Sea (2013) · cites this paper as Muhling et al. 2010
Spawning seasons in both the Gulf of Mexico and western Mediterranean appeared likely to extend for around 6 to 8 weeks and were closely tied with sea temperatures.
“Spawning seasons in both regions appeared likely to extend for around 6 to 8 wk, and were closely tied with sea temperatures (Muhling et al. 2010).”
From Comparison between environmental characteristics of larval bluefin tuna Thunnus thynnus habitat in the Gulf of Mexico and western Mediterranean Sea (2013) · cites this paper as Muhling et al. 2010
Spawning peaks around the second half of May in the Gulf of Mexico and in early July in the Balearic Islands region.
“Spawning peaks around the second half of May in the GOM (Muhling et al. 2010) and in early July in the BI region, so these months were chosen for climatological analyses.”
From Comparison between environmental characteristics of larval bluefin tuna Thunnus thynnus habitat in the Gulf of Mexico and western Mediterranean Sea (2013) · cites this paper as Muhling et al. 2010
Misclassification costs were adjusted iteratively and set at the lowest possible value at which model sensitivity remained above 80%.
“This parameter was adjusted in an iterative fashion, and set at the lowest possible value at which model sensitivity remained above 80% (Muhling et al. 2010).”
From Comparison between environmental characteristics of larval bluefin tuna Thunnus thynnus habitat in the Gulf of Mexico and western Mediterranean Sea (2013) · cites this paper as Muhling et al. 2010
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Self-citation
- Authors
- MUHLING, B. A., LAMKIN, J. T., & ROFFER, M. A.
- Affiliations
- NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Southeast Fisheries Science Center (US)
- Roffer’s Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service (US)
- Corresponding author
- MUHLING, BARBARA A.
- Venue
- Fisheries Oceanography
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2010-10-14
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 526-539
- ISSN
- 1054-6006 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2419
- OpenAlex
- W1680295055
- Cited by
- 83
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 4.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Fisheries Oceanography (publishedVersion)
- Lincoln (University of Nebraska) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- National Marine Fisheries Service
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ichthyology and Marine Biology
- Keywords
- Thunnus thynnus, spawning grounds, classification trees, Loop Current, warm-core rings, continental shelf, northern Gulf of Mexico, archival data, thermal fronts
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