Impacts of climate on prey abundance account for fluctuations in a population of a northern wader at the southern edge of its range
Open accessAbstract
Understanding the mechanisms by which climate change will affect animal populations is vital for adaptive management. Many studies have described changes in the timing of biological events, which can produce phenological mismatch. Direct effects on prey abundance might also be important, but have rarely been studied. We examine the likely importance of variation in prey abundance in driving the demographics of a European golden plover (Pluvialis apricaria) population at its southern range margin. Previous studies have correlated plover productivity with the abundance of their adult cranefly (Tipulidae) prey, and modelled the phenology of both plover breeding and cranefly emergence in relation to temperature. Our analyses demonstrate that abundance of adult craneflies is correlated with August temperature in the previous year. Correspondingly, changes in the golden plover population are negatively correlated with August temperature 2 years earlier. Predictions of annual productivity, based on temperature‐mediated reductions in prey abundance, closely match observed trends. Modelled variation in annual productivity for a future scenario of increasing August temperatures predicts a significant risk of extinction of the golden plover population over the next 100 years, depending upon the magnitude of warming. Direct effects of climate warming upon cranefly populations may therefore cause northward range contractions of golden plovers, as predicted by climate envelope modelling. Craneflies are an important food source for many northern and upland birds, and our results are likely to have wide relevance to these other species. Research into the potential for habitat management to improve the resilience of cranefly populations to high temperature should be an urgent priority.
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Pearce-Higgins et al. calculated a climate-sensitivity index for prey of 17 upland, insectivorous bird species in the United Kingdom and showed that the index was correlated with recent negative population trends.
“Pearce-Higgins et al. (97) also analyzed the diets of 17 upland, insectivorous bird species in the United Kingdom, calculated a climate-sensitivity index for their prey, and showed that the index was correlated with recent negative population trends.”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [97]
Pearce-Higgins et al. showed that trends in golden plover population dynamics were closely associated with temperature-based reductions in prey abundance.
“Pearce-Higgins et al. (97) analyzed the demographics of the golden plover in Europe and showed that trends in population dynamics were closely associated with temperature-based reductions in prey abundance.”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [97]
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Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web
Lister, B. C., & Garcia, A. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1722477115 · Cited by 730 · see citing works
- Authors
- PEARCE‐HIGGINS, J. W., DENNIS, P., WHITTINGHAM, M. J., & YALDEN, D. W.
- Affiliations
- Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (GB)
- Aberystwyth University (GB)
- Newcastle University (GB)
- University of Manchester (GB)
- Corresponding author
- PEARCE‐HIGGINS, JAMES W.
- Venue
- Global Change Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2009-12-02
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 12-23
- ISSN
- 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2486
- OpenAlex
- W2162014302
- Cited by
- 147
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 11 · 2012: 7
- FWCI
- 8.48
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
- Newcastle University ePrints (Newcastle Univesity)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Avian ecology and behavior
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies
- Keywords
- climate change impacts on birds, golden plover, Pluvialis apricaria, Tipulidae, prey availability, population productivity, range margins, range contraction, extinction risk, phenological mismatch, breeding phenology, habitat management
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