Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

“Climate change is an important factor in determining the past and future distributions of biodiversity (Peterson et al. 2002; Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Root et al. 2003; Thomas et al. 2004a,b; Rosenzweig et al. 2008).”

“Climate change may add to and amplify these impacts on marine biodiversity (Walther et al. 2002).”

“…invasion to and extinction from an area (collectively called species turnover) can affect biodiversity, community structure and ecosystem functions (Sala et al. 2000; Stachowicz et al. 2002; Genner et al. 2004; Hooper et al. 2005), we calculated the average frequency of invasion and local…”

“However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far.”

“…turnover) can affect biodiversity, community structure and ecosystem functions (Sala et al. 2000; Stachowicz et al. 2002; Genner et al. 2004; Hooper et al. 2005), we calculated the average frequency of invasion and local extinction events in each 30¢ · 30¢ cell from 2040 to 2060 relative to…”

“%) predicted for terrestrial organisms (Thomas et al. 2004a,b).”

“These include the lack of considerations of biotic interactions, evolutionary change and species dispersal, and the assumption that the observed distributions are in equilibrium with their environment (e.g. Pearson and Dawson 2003; Guisan and Thuiller 2005).”

“ocean acidification) was not considered, although it was predicted to have negative impacts on fishes, invertebrates and habitats such as coral reefs (Orr et al. 2005; Harley et al. 2006; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007).”

“Climate change is an important factor in determining the past and future distributions of biodiversity (Peterson et al. 2002; Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Root et al. 2003; Thomas et al. 2004a,b; Rosenzweig et al. 2008).”

“ocean acidification) was not considered, although it was predicted to have negative impacts on fishes, invertebrates and habitats such as coral reefs (Orr et al. 2005; Harley et al. 2006; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007).”

“2000), marine biodiversity is simultaneously impacted by a range of human activities such as over-fishing, habitat destruction and pollution (Pauly et al. 2002; Dulvy et al. 2003; Lotze et al. 2006; Worm et al. 2006).”

“The lack of large-scale study that encompasses a wide array of marine species is in contrast to the situation prevailing in the terrestrial realm (e.g. Peterson et al. 2002; Thomas et al. 2004a; Deutsch et al. 2008).”

“In addition, because we only considered climate scenarios generated from one coupled atmosphere and ocean model (NOAA’s GFDL), variability between projections from different models may affect our results (Araújo and New 2007).”

“2000), marine biodiversity is simultaneously impacted by a range of human activities such as over-fishing, habitat destruction and pollution (Pauly et al. 2002; Dulvy et al. 2003; Lotze et al. 2006; Worm et al. 2006).”

“Under the low-range climate change scenario (i.e. greenhouse gas emission maintained at the year 2000 level), our projected rate of range-shift for demersal fishes was within the range of observed rates for demersal fishes in the North Sea (Perry et al. 2005) that showed poleward shifts in range over the past three de…”

“2000), marine biodiversity is simultaneously impacted by a range of human activities such as over-fishing, habitat destruction and pollution (Pauly et al. 2002; Dulvy et al. 2003; Lotze et al. 2006; Worm et al. 2006).”

“ocean acidification) was not considered, although it was predicted to have negative impacts on fishes, invertebrates and habitats such as coral reefs (Orr et al. 2005; Harley et al. 2006; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007).”

“Bioclimate envelope models, alternatively called environmental niche models, have been widely used to predict distributions of plants and animals (e.g. Peterson et al. 2002; Thomas et al. 2004a; Thuiller et al. 2005; Arájo et al. 2006).”

“by Longhurst (2006), as both schemes identify marine provinces from oceanographic features.”

“Tropical marine poikilotherms tend to have a thermal tolerance (defined by the upper and lower lethal temperature limits of a species) close to the maximum temperature of their habitat (Pörtner and Knust 2007; Tewksbury et al. 2008), rendering them highly sensitive to increase in sea water temperature.”

“…scenarios included: the 720 ppm stabilization experiment (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, or SRES, A1B), the 550 ppm stabilization experiment (SRES B1) and the committed climate change experiment (commit), representing the high-, mid- and low- range climate change (Delworth et al. 2006).”

“Thus, projections from such models are valuable in generating hypotheses for future studies and providing guidance for policy making (Hannah et al. 2002; Peterson et al. 2002; Araújo et al. 2005).”

“Also, there is little theoretical or experimental evidence that absolute tolerances to climate change of a species will evolve sufficiently to conserve its distribution range (Etterson and Shaw 2001; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2002; Donner et al. 2005; Jump and Peñuelas 2005; Parmesan 2006).”

“Climate change is an important factor in determining the past and future distributions of biodiversity (Peterson et al. 2002; Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Root et al. 2003; Thomas et al. 2004a,b; Rosenzweig et al. 2008).”

“Also, there is little theoretical or experimental evidence that absolute tolerances to climate change of a species will evolve sufficiently to conserve its distribution range (Etterson and Shaw 2001; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2002; Donner et al. 2005; Jump and Peñuelas 2005; Parmesan 2006).”

“Changes in distributions and community structure of marine species may affect fishing activities and have socio-economic impacts on vulnerable coastal communities (Allison et al. 2009).”

“Here, local extinction refers to a species ceasing to exist in an area although it still exists elsewhere (e.g., Peterson et al. 2002; Dulvy et al. 2003), while invasion refers to the expansion of a species into an area not previously occupied by it (Rahel and Olden 2008).”

“Thirdly, distribution shifts may be influenced by synergistic effects between species or anthropogenic factors that were not captured in our model (e.g. fishing) (Davis et al. 1998; Harley et al. 2006; Hsieh et al. 2008).”

“A possible reason is that marine species may have higher dispersal ability than terrestrial organisms as suggested from our predicted rate of range-shift and empirical comparison of dispersal ability between marine and terrestrial organisms (Kinlan and Gaines 2003).”

“2000), marine biodiversity is simultaneously impacted by a range of human activities such as over-fishing, habitat destruction and pollution (Pauly et al. 2002; Dulvy et al. 2003; Lotze et al. 2006; Worm et al. 2006).”

“Despite its wide application in projecting climate change effects on species distributions, predictions from bioclimate envelope models are often sensitive to model assumptions and uncertainties (Pearson and Dawson 2003; Thuiller 2004; Lawler et al. 2006; Pearson et al. 2006).”

“Bioclimate envelope models, alternatively called environmental niche models, have been widely used to predict distributions of plants and animals (e.g. Peterson et al. 2002; Thomas et al. 2004a; Thuiller et al. 2005; Arájo et al. 2006).”

“These predictions, which agree with the eco-physiology of animals (Pörtner et al. 2007; Tewksbury et al. 2008), suggest that marine communities at the extreme ends of the environmental temperature spectrum are especially at risk from climate change.”

“However, local extinction intensity was higher in the tropics (between 30 N and 30 S) and in the sub-polar biomes (Sarmiento et al. 2004) where the mean local extinction intensity was 4% and 7%, respectively.”

“Also, there is little theoretical or experimental evidence that absolute tolerances to climate change of a species will evolve sufficiently to conserve its distribution range (Etterson and Shaw 2001; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2002; Donner et al. 2005; Jump and Peñuelas 2005; Parmesan 2006).”

“For example, local extinction intensity is high along the southern coast of the Mediterranean while many species invade the Ligurian and Adriatic Seas in the north; the latter pattern agrees with empirical evidence (Bianchi and Morri 2000).”

“1 – Parmesan and Yohe (2003); 2 – Perry et al.”

“as a good measure of biodiversity and ecosystem perturbation (Peterson et al. 2002; Thuiller 2004).”

“Thus, projections from such models are valuable in generating hypotheses for future studies and providing guidance for policy making (Hannah et al. 2002; Peterson et al. 2002; Araújo et al. 2005).”

“2005; Parmesan 2006; Hiddink and Hofstede 2008; Mueter & Litzow 2008) and depth range (Dulvy et al. 2008).”

“Also, there is little theoretical or experimental evidence that absolute tolerances to climate change of a species will evolve sufficiently to conserve its distribution range (Etterson and Shaw 2001; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2002; Donner et al. 2005; Jump and Peñuelas 2005; Parmesan 2006).”

“Particularly, climate change impacts on marine biodiversity are likely to intensify in the future, with the intensity of impacts differing geographically according to changes in ocean conditions and sensitivity of the species (Roessig et al. 2004; Harley et al. 2006; Munday et al. 2008).”

“Particularly, climate change impacts on marine biodiversity are likely to intensify in the future, with the intensity of impacts differing geographically according to changes in ocean conditions and sensitivity of the species (Roessig et al. 2004; Harley et al. 2006; Munday et al. 2008).”

“On the other hand, bioclimate envelope modelling is among the few available quantitative tools to predict potential ecological changes resulting from shifts in species distributions (Botkin et al. 2007).”

“…from an area (collectively called species turnover) can affect biodiversity, community structure and ecosystem functions (Sala et al. 2000; Stachowicz et al. 2002; Genner et al. 2004; Hooper et al. 2005), we calculated the average frequency of invasion and local extinction events in each…”

“(2002); Beare et al. (2004); Perry et al.”

“Specifically, dispersal pattern of larvae was assumed to follow ocean current which was explicitly modelled by an advection–diffusion-reaction model (Gaylord and Gaines 2000).”

“Thus, projections from such models are valuable in generating hypotheses for future studies and providing guidance for policy making (Hannah et al. 2002; Peterson et al. 2002; Araújo et al. 2005).”

“Also, observations and theory suggest that marine species respond to ocean warming by shifting their latitudinal range (e.g. Perry et al. 2005; Parmesan 2006; Hiddink and Hofstede 2008; Mueter & Litzow 2008) and depth range (Dulvy et al. 2008).”

“Polar species generally have temperature limits that are 2–4 times narrower than lower latitude species (Somero and DeVries 1967; Peck et al. 2004).”

“Polar species generally have temperature limits that are 2–4 times narrower than lower latitude species (Somero and DeVries 1967; Peck et al. 2004).”

“Despite its wide application in projecting climate change effects on species distributions, predictions from bioclimate envelope models are often sensitive to model assumptions and uncertainties (Pearson and Dawson 2003; Thuiller 2004; Lawler et al. 2006; Pearson et al. 2006).”

“Also, physiological compensation to changing temperature in aquatic ectotherms is far from complete (Pörtner et al. 2007).”

“Also, observations and theory suggest that marine species respond to ocean warming by shifting their latitudinal range (e.g. Perry et al. 2005; Parmesan 2006; Hiddink and Hofstede 2008; Mueter & Litzow 2008) and depth range (Dulvy et al.”

“…called species turnover) can affect biodiversity, community structure and ecosystem functions (Sala et al. 2000; Stachowicz et al. 2002; Genner et al. 2004; Hooper et al. 2005), we calculated the average frequency of invasion and local extinction events in each 30¢ · 30¢ cell from 2040…”

“In the ocean, the pattern of marine species richness, notably for fish and invertebrates, is strongly related to environmental factors (Macpherson 2002).”

“Overall, changes in pattern of species richness may disrupt marine biodiversity and ecosystems, and impact commercial fisheries (Roessig et al. 2004; Worm et al. 2006; Cheung et al. 2008b).”

“Thirdly, distribution shifts may be influenced by synergistic effects between species or anthropogenic factors that were not captured in our model (e.g. fishing) (Davis et al. 1998; Harley et al. 2006; Hsieh et al. 2008).”

“This bioregional classification system parallels the system proposed 8 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, F I S H and F I S H E R I E S by Longhurst (2006), as both schemes identify marine provinces from oceanographic features.”

“Received 15 Sep 2008 Accepted 5 Nov 2008 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x 1”

“Here, local extinction refers to a species ceasing to exist in an area although it still exists elsewhere (e.g., Peterson et al. 2002; Dulvy et al.2003), while invasion refers to the expansion of a species into an area not previously occupied by it ( Rahel and Olden 2008 ).”

“Also, there is little theoretical or experimental evidence that absolute tolerances to climate change of a species will evolve sufficiently to conserve its distribution range (Etterson and Shaw 2001; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2002; Donner et al. 2005; Jump and Peñuelas 2005; Parmesan 2006).”

“%) predicted for terrestrial organisms (Thomas et al. 2004a,b).”

“fishing) on marine organisms (Rose 2004; Brander 2008), increasing their vulnerability to extinction (Walther et al.”

“(74) used a global climate model to predict range shifts, extinction, and invasion intensities based on ocean warming up to 2050 for 1066 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates.”

“Bioclimate envelope models predict that invasion intensity (the number of invasions relative to current species richness) may reach a global average of 55% by 2050 (Cheung et al. 2009).”

“Concurrent with these observations, predictions of how species distribution and biodiversity will respond to continued climate change have been developed (e.g. Cheung et al. 2009; Engler et al. 2011; Sen Gupta et al. 2015).”