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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios
Open accessAbstract
Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species’ distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub‐polar regions, the tropics and semi‐enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.
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“Such a Scenario could expand available habitat for warm water pelagic to higher latitudes (Cheung et al. 2009).”
From El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on tuna fisheries in Indian Ocean (2014) · cites this paper as Cheung et al. 2009
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“However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far.”
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Climate change, tropical fisheries and prospects for sustainable development
Lam, V. W. Y., Allison, E. H., Bell, J. D., Blythe, J. L., Cheung, W. W. L., Frölicher, T. L., Gasalla, M. A., & Sumaila, U. R. (2020) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-020-0071-9 · Cited by 344
Self-citationProjected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change
Lam, V. W. Y., Cheung, W. W. L., Reygondeau, G., & Sumaila, U. R. (2016) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep32607 · Cited by 319
Self-citationEnvironmental sustainability: challenges and viable solutions
Arora, N. K., Fatima, T., Mishra, I., Verma, M., Mishra, J., & Mishra, V. K. (2018) · Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s42398-018-00038-w · Cited by 367
Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities
Frainer, A., Primicerio, R., Kortsch, S., Aune, M., Dolgov, A. V., Fossheim, M., & Aschan, M. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1706080114 · Cited by 336
Continental Shelf-Wide Response of a Fish Assemblage to Rapid Warming of the Sea
Simpson, S. D., Jennings, S., Johnson, M. P., Blanchard, J. L., Schön, P., SIMS, D. W., & Genner, M. J. (2011) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2011.08.016 · Cited by 278
“Conclusions The results here are unique in exploring observed spatial heterogeneity in the response of the assemblage at a resolution that matches the one used in climate envelope models [20].”
Extinctions in ancient and modern seas
Harnik, P. G., Lotze, H. K., Anderson, S. C., Finkel, Z. V., Finnegan, S., Lindberg, D. R., Liow, L. H., Lockwood, R., McClain, C. R., McGuire, J. L., et al. (2012) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2012.07.010 · Cited by 306
Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture
Blanchard, J. L., Watson, R. A., Fulton, E. A., Cottrell, R. S., Nash, K. L., Bryndum‐Buchholz, A., Büchner, M., Carozza, D. A., Cheung, W. W. L., Elliott, J. W., et al. (2017) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-017-0258-8 · Cited by 326
Self-citationProcess-based models are required to manage ecological systems in a changing world
Cuddington, K., Fortin, M., Gerber, L., Hastings, A., Liebhold, A. M., O'Connor, M., & Ray, C. (2013) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es12-00178.1 · Cited by 255
“Cheung et al. (2009, 2010) predicted northern range shifts, and northern increases in fisheries catch potentials.”
BackgroundHale, R., Calosi, P., McNeill, L., Mieszkowska, N., & Widdicombe, S. (2011) · Oikos · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.19469.x · Cited by 223
Preparation and characterization of nano chitosan for treatment wastewaters.
Sivakami, M., Gomathi, T., Venkatesan, J., Jeong, H.-S., Kim, S.-K., & Sudha, P. (2013) · International Journal of Biological Macromolecules · doi:10.1016/j.ijbiomac.2013.03.005 · Cited by 249
Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5°C global warming target
Cheung, W. W. L., Reygondeau, G., & Frölicher, T. L. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aag2331 · Cited by 266
Self-citationBrown, C. J., Fulton, E. A., Hobday, A. J., Matear, R. J., Possingham, H. P., Bulman, C., Christensen, V., Forrest, R. E., Gehrke, P. C., Gribble, N., et al. (2009) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02046.x · Cited by 237
“Current models of the ecological effects of global warming effects have made useful progress by studying the responses of individual species to warming (e.g. Clark et al., 2003; Cheung et al., 2009; Hobday 2009).”
BackgroundSelf-citationImproved fisheries management could offset many negative effects of climate change
Gaines, S. D., Costello, C., Owashi, B., Mangin, T., Bone, J., Molinos, J. G., Burden, M., Dennis, H., Halpern, B. S., Kappel, C. V., et al. (2018) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aao1378 · Cited by 275
Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century
Mora, C., Wei, C., Rollo, A., Amaro, T., Baco, A. R., BILLETT, D. S. M., Bopp, L., Chen, Q., Collier, M. A., Danovaro, R., et al. (2013) · PLoS Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1001682 · Cited by 258
“A similar example is the effect of ocean climate change on the world’s fisheries, where a combination of warming, oxygen depletion, and reduction in primary productivity can induce changes in body size [31], abundance, and distribution of exploited species [41,42].”
BackgroundPhysical manifestations and ecological implications of Arctic Atlantification
Ingvaldsen, R., Assmann, K., Primicerio, R., Fossheim, M., Polyakov, I., & Dolgov, A. (2021) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-021-00228-x · Cited by 224
Climate change and overfishing increase neurotoxicant in marine predators
Schartup, A., Thackray, C., Qureshi, A., Dassuncao, C., Gillespie, K. M., Hanke, A., & Sunderland, E. (2019) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1468-9 · Cited by 223
Restructuring the Sea: profound shifts in the world's most invaded marine ecosystem
Edelist, D., Rilov, G., Golani, D., Carlton, J. T., & Spanier, E. (2013) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.12002 · Cited by 241
“…permitting the invasion of species previously excluded by cooler mediterranean waters (Ben Rais Lasram et al., 2010; Raitsos et al., 2010; see also Cheung et al., 2009 and Sorte et al., 2010 for a broader global picture of the exacerbation of invasions owing to latitudinal shifts mediated by…”
BackgroundGutt, J., Bertler, N. A. N., Bracegirdle, T. J., Buschmann, A., Comiso, J. C., Hosie, G. W., Isla, E., Schloss, I. R., Smith, C. R., Tournadre, J., et al. (2014) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12794 · Cited by 237
“Due to these reason a modelling approach has projected high species turnover rates in this area (Cheung et al., 2009).”
BackgroundDaw, T. M., Cinner, J. E., McClanahan, T. R., Brown, K. M., Stead, S. M., Graham, N. A. J., & Maina, J. M. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0031460 · Cited by 213
“. Fishers' livelihoods are also increasingly vulnerable to effects of climate change”
Tommasi, D., Stock, C. A. A., Hobday, A. J., Methot, R., Kaplan, I. C., Eveson, J. P., Holsman, K. K., Miller, T. J., Gaichas, S., Gehlen, M., et al. (2017) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.011 · Cited by 243
“, 2006), Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM; Cheung et al., 2009), AquaMaps (Kaschner et al.”
BackgroundCurrent and Future Patterns of Global Marine Mammal Biodiversity
Kaschner, K., Tittensor, D. P., Ready, J. S., Gerrodette, T., & Worm, B. (2011) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0019653 · Cited by 251
“Bioclimatic envelope models such as the RES models are based on the relationship between species occurrence and environmental proxies, and have been used to explore possible range shifts of marine and terrestrial species under changing environmental conditions [14,15], although results tend to be sensitive to model as…”
BackgroundAsch, R. G. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1421946112 · Cited by 262
Weatherdon, L. V., Magnan, A., Rogers, A. D., Sumaila, U. R., & Cheung, W. W. L. (2016) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2016.00048 · Cited by 275
“…polar species—and thus the fisheries that target them—are likely to be more vulnerable to climate change due to constrained ecological niches (e.g., Cheung et al., 2009), and further suggest that tropical and temperate fauna may experience substantial range expansion under the combined influence…”
BackgroundSelf-citationMaking protected area networks effective for marine top predators
Hooker, S. K., Cañadas, A., Hyrenbach, K. D., Corrigan, C. M., Polovina, J., & Reeves, R. (2010) · Endangered Species Research · doi:10.3354/esr00322 · Cited by 203
“These include Marxan, C-Plan, Zonation and ConsNet, which can be explored further in other publications or websites (Carwardine et al. 2007, Moilanen 2007, Ciarleglio et al. 2009).”
BackgroundeDNA metabarcoding as a new surveillance approach for coastal Arctic biodiversity
Lacoursière‐Roussel, A., Howland, K. E., Normandeau, É., Grey, E. K., Archambault, P., Deiner, K., Lodge, D. M., Hernandez, C., Leduc, N., & Bernatchez, L. (2018) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.4213 · Cited by 222
“In the Arctic, climate change and marine invasions are expected to result in over 60% species turnover from present biodiversity with substantial impacts on marine ecosystems (Cheung et al., 2009).”
BackgroundGlobal climate change and human health: Pathways and possible solutions
Zhao, Q., Yu, P., Mahendran, R., Huang, W., Gao, Y., Yang, Z., Ye, T., Wen, B., Wu, Y. Y., Li, S., et al. (2022) · Eco-Environment & Health · doi:10.1016/j.eehl.2022.04.004 · Cited by 293
“For the marine fi sheries and aquaculture sector, climate change may cause geographic shifts in fi shery resources, with some regions in high latitudes experiencing an increase in productivity [120].”
BackgroundPelagic provinces of the world: A biogeographic classification of the world's surface pelagic waters
Spalding, M. D., Agostini, V. N., Rice, J., & Grant, S. M. (2012) · Ocean & Coastal Management · doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2011.12.016 · Cited by 205
Chan, F. T., Stanislawczyk, K., Sneekes, A. C., Dvoretsky, A., Gollasch, S., Minchin, D., David, M., Jelmert, A., Albretsen, J., & Bailey, S. A. (2019) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14469 · Cited by 204
“The effects of climate change are already affecting native communities by decreasing productivity, altering food web dynamics, and modifying habitat complexity (Cheung et al., 2009; Hoegh‐Guldberg & Bruno, 2010).”
Melle, W., Runge, J., Head, E., Plourde, S., Castellani, C., Licandro, P., Pierson, J., Jónasdóttir, S., Johnson, C., Broms, C., et al. (2014) · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.04.026 · Cited by 188
The Role of Digital Agriculture in Mitigating Climate Change and Ensuring Food Security: An Overview
Balasundram, S. K., Shamshiri, R. R., Sridhara, S., & Rizan, N. (2023) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su15065325 · Cited by 270
Synthesis of underreported small-scale fisheries catch in Pacific island waters
Zeller, D., Harper, S., Zylich, K., & Pauly, D. (2015) · Coral reefs · doi:10.1007/s00338-014-1219-1 · Cited by 186
“At a time when climate change is beginning to have major and growing impacts on biodiversity (e.g., Cheung et al. 2009) as well as fisheries (Cheung et al. 2008, 2010, 2012; Sumaila et al. 2011), and where climate change projections paint an increasingly challenging picture for coastal small-scale…”
BackgroundSelf-citationProjected climate‐driven faunal movement routes
Lawler, J. J., Ruesch, A. S., Olden, J. D., & McRae, B. H. (2013) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.12132 · Cited by 179
Vedder, O., Bouwhuis, S., & Sheldon, B. C. (2013) · PLoS Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1001605 · Cited by 195
“, [5–7]).”
Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine foodwebs and fisheries
Ainsworth, C. H., Samhouri, J. F., Busch, D. S., Cheung, W. W. L., Dunne, J. P. P., & Okey, T. A. (2011) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr043 · Cited by 192
“We simulated these effects for fished fish and invertebrates in our study areas using output from a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model (Cheung et al., 2009).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationChin, A., Kyne, P. M., Walker, T. I., & McAuley, R. B. (2009) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02128.x · Cited by 292
“If this is the case, then these changes would be broadly consistent with those predicted for tropical marine systems (Cheung et al., 2009).”
ResultProjecting future changes in distributions of pelagic fish species of Northeast Pacific shelf seas
Cheung, W. W. L., Brodeur, R. D., Okey, T. A., & Pauly, D. F. (2014) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.09.003 · Cited by 175
“(2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2014.09.003 than pelagic species (Cheung et al., 2009b; Perry et al., 2005).”
InfluentialSelf-citationBryndum‐Buchholz, A., Tittensor, D. P., Blanchard, J. L., Cheung, W. W. L., Marta Coll, M., Galbraith, E. D., Jennings, S., Olivier, M., & Lotze, H. K. (2018) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14512 · Cited by 231
Self-citationAvoiding ocean mass extinction from climate warming
Penn, J. L., & Deutsch, C. A. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abe9039 · Cited by 226
Azzurro, E., Sbragaglia, V., Cerri, J., Bariche, M., Bolognini, L., Ben Souissi, J., Busoni, G., Coco, S., Chryssanthi, A., Fanelli, E., et al. (2019) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14670 · Cited by 179
“However, mobile marine organisms also have another option: they can move to new areas where they were formerly absent (Cheung et al., 2009; Fogarty, Burrows, Pecl, Robinson, & Poloczanska, 2017).”
BackgroundPredicting the distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau via the MaxEnt model
Ma, B., & Sun, J. (2018) · BMC Ecology · doi:10.1186/s12898-018-0165-0 · Cited by 177
Carr, M. H., Robinson, S. P., Wahle, C. M., Davis, G. E., Kroll, S., Murray, S., Schumacker, E. J., & Williams, M. (2017) · Aquatic Conservation Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems · doi:10.1002/aqc.2800 · Cited by 218
Scaling up experimental ocean acidification and warming research: from individuals to the ecosystem
Queirós, A. M., Fernandes, J. A., Faulwetter, S., Nunes, J., Rastrick, S. P. S., Mieszkowska, N., Artioli, Y., Yool, A., Calosi, P., Arvanitidis, C., et al. (2014) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12675 · Cited by 184
Self-citationPolovina, J. J., Dunne, J. P., Woodworth, P. A., & Howell, E. A. (2011) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsq198 · Cited by 171
“…currently in the area affected by the elevated SST might be unable to remain in the new habitat based on a potential mismatch between the demand for oxygen and the capacity of oxygen supply to tissues that restricts fish tolerance of thermal extremes (Pörtner and Knust, 2007; Cheung et al., 2009).”
BackgroundMethodBiology in the Anthropocene: Challenges and insights from young fossil records
Kidwell, S. M. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1403660112 · Cited by 169
Application of game theory to fisheries over three decades
Bailey, M., Sumaila, U. R., & Lindroos, M. (2009) · Fisheries Research · doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2009.11.003 · Cited by 165
Gillson, J. P. (2011) · Reviews in Fisheries Science · doi:10.1080/10641262.2011.560690 · Cited by 174
“Increased ocean volume and decreased flows could increase habitat for marine species by expanding saline habitats inland (Cheung et al., 2009).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D.
- Affiliations
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Cheung, William W.L.
- Venue
- Fish and Fisheries
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2009-08-13
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 235-251
- ISSN
- 1467-2960 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-2979
- OpenAlex
- W2170590389
- Cited by
- 1,626
- References
- 93
- Citations by year
- 2026: 48 · 2025: 86 · 2024: 100 · 2023: 124 · 2022: 104 · 2021: 122 · 2020: 160 · 2019: 108 · 2018: 87 · 2017: 96 · 2016: 109 · 2015: 82 · 2014: 90 · 2013: 102 · 2012: 73
- FWCI
- 39.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- figshare.com
- Locations
- Fish and Fisheries (publishedVersion)
- eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, marine biodiversity, species distribution projections, local extinction, biological invasions, species turnover, marine invertebrates, Arctic, Southern Ocean, ecosystem services
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