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Cited by 184Family Dynamics and RelationshipsInsurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk ManagementDemographic Trends and Gender Preferences

New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals

Myrskylä, Mikko, Goldstein, Joshua R., Cheng, Yen‐hsin Alice·2013·Population and Development Review
DOI 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00572.x
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Abstract

With period fertility having risen in many low‐fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertility for 37 developed countries using a new, simple method that avoids the underestimation typical of previous approaches. Consistent with the idea that timing changes were largely responsible for the last decades' low period fertility, we find that family size has remained considerably higher than the period rates of 1.5 in many “low‐fertility” countries, averaging about 1.8 children. Our forecasts suggest that the long‐term decline in cohort fertility is flattening or reversing in many world regions previously characterized by low fertility. We document the marked increase of cohort fertility in the English‐speaking world and in Scandinavia; signs of an upward reversal in many low‐fertility countries, including Japan and Germany; and continued declines in countries such as Taiwan and Portugal. We include in our forecasts estimates of statistical uncertainty and the possible effects of the recent economic recession.

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Crossref · 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00572.x

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  • This estimate ranks Korea, alongside Japan, Italy, and Spain, among countries with the lowest cohort fertility globally.

    “This estimate ranks Korea, alongside Japan, Italy, and Spain, among countries with the lowest cohort fertility globally (Myrskylä, Goldstein, and Cheng 2013).”

    From Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect (2018) · cites this paper as Myrskylä, Goldstein, and Cheng 2013

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Authors
Myrskylä, M., Goldstein, J. R., & Cheng, Y. A.
Affiliations
  • Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (DE)
  • Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica (TW)
ORCID
Venue
Population and Development Review
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2013-03
Volume
39
Issue
1
Pages
31-56
ISSN
  • 0098-7921 (ISSN-L)
  • 1728-4457
DOI
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00572.x
OpenAlex
W1975597326
Cited by
184
References
4
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 15 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 21 · 2015: 22 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 1
FWCI
54.46
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 19 d)
Locations
  • Population and Development Review (publishedVersion)
  • London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
  • Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
Keywords
cohort fertility, fertility prediction, low fertility, fertility reversal, family size, period fertility, fertility timing, developed countries, statistical uncertainty, English-speaking countries, Scandinavia, Japan, Germany

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