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Cited by 28Family Dynamics and RelationshipsDemographic Trends and Gender PreferencesInsurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

The Fertility Transition Revisited: A Cohort Perspective

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Frejka, Tomas·2017·Comparative Population Studies
DOI 10.12765/cpos-2017-09
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Abstract

This paper deals with the fertility transition, one of the two essential components of the demographic transition. The analysis demonstrates that by applying the cohort perspective new insights are obtained about how the fertility transition unfolded. Within the overall framework of the fertility transition there were four distinct pathways of fertility trends. Combining these findings with those of other scholars shows that the demographic transition has not yet led to an equilibrium of relatively stable low mortality and stable low fertility.The four fertility transition pathways are the following: (1) The Western fertility transition pathway characterized by major cohort total fertility rate (CTFR) fluctuations; (2) the South European fertility transition pathway characterized by an almost uninterrupted CTFR decline; (3) the Central and East European fertility transition pathway characterized by stable CTFRs in the 1920s to 1950s cohorts and a decline in the 1960s and 1970s cohorts; (4) the East and South-East Asia fertility transition pathway characterized by a late start in the mid-20th century with rapidly declining CTFRs.The exploration of societal conditions shaping fertility trends in the 19th and 20th centuries confirms Notestein’s conclusions that the causes are a complex combination of “technological, social, economic, and political developments” as well as cultural and ideational effects, and that it is “impossible to be precise about the various causal factors”. At times the primary factors were economic, as in the Great Depression of the 1930s and the 1960s post-war prosperity in Western countries. However, these economic factors also had many political, cultural, social, policy and other important facets. In Central and Eastern Europe the primary factors during the era of state socialism were the political system and social policies. The patriarchal nature of societies was the prime factor shaping fertility trends in Southern Europe and in East and South-East Asia.

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  • In contrast to fluctuating period TFRs and more pronounced declines in other European countries, cohort fertility has remained fairly stable in the Nordic region.

    “In contrast to the fluctuating developments in period TFRs (Fig. 1) and to the more pronounced or even dramatic declines of the CTFs in other European countries (Frejka 2017), cohort fertility has remained fairly stable in the Nordic region.”

    From Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries (2019) · cites this paper as Frejka 2017

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Research works printed but not linked: 7

  1. Frejka, Tomas; Goldscheider, Fran; Lappegård, Trude 2016a: The Second Half of the Gender Revolution and Fertility. In: Proceedings of 2016 Annual Meeting of Population Association of America, session 214. Washington D.C. Frejka, Tomas; Goldscheider, Fran; Lappegård, Trude 2016b: The Gender Revolution and Fertility. In: Proceedings of 2016 European Population Conference. Session 43. Mainz, Germany.
  2. Eversley, David E.C. (Eds.): Population and History: Essays in Historical Demography. London: 101-145.
  3. Notestein, Frank W. 1945: Population-The Long View. In: Schultz, Theodore W. (Ed.): Food for the World. Chicago: University of Chicago Press: 36-57.
  4. Notestein, Frank W. 1953: Economic Problems of Population Change. In: Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference of Agricultural Economists. New York: 13-31.
  5. Choe, Minja Kim (Eds.): Low Fertility, Institutions, and their Policies. Springer Publish- ing Co.: 131-163.
  6. May. Stock, Günter et al. (Eds.) 2013: Zukunft mit Kindern -Fertilität und gesellschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland, Österreich und der Schweiz (A Future with Children: Fer- tility and Development of Society in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland). Frankfurt/ New York: Campus Verlag.
  7. Thompson, Warren S. 1929: Population. In: American Journal of Sociology 34,6: 959- 975.

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Authors
Frejka, T.
Venue
Comparative Population Studies
Publisher
German Federal Institute for Population Research
Published
2017-08-08
Volume
42
ISSN
  • 1869-8980 (ISSN-L)
  • 1869-8999
DOI
10.12765/cpos-2017-09
OpenAlex
W4241736620
Cited by
28
References
50
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 3
FWCI
5.69
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Comparative Population Studies (publishedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • Bundesinstitut für Bevolkerungsforschung (CPoS) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
  • Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Keywords
fertility transition, demographic transition, cohort fertility, total fertility rate, fertility decline, economic factors in fertility, state socialism, patriarchal society, Great Depression, Western Europe, Southern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, East and Southeast Asia

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