Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions
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A recent review showed that, assuming agricultural practices and yields do not change over the twenty-first century, removing CO2 could require large amounts of land.
“A recent review 54 showed that, assuming agricultural practices and yields do not change over the twenty-first century, removing CO2 could require large amounts of land.”
From Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C (2016) · cites this paper as [54]
The 'Global resource implications of NETs deployment' section (page not supplied) estimates that BECCS and afforestation/reforestation could require hundreds of millions of hectares by 2100, supporting the large-land-demand claim. It does not state that agricultural practices and yields remain unchanged throughout the century; instead, it identifies future food-crop yields as an uncertainty that could free more land. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredDeployment of BECCS at scale could be controversial because of public acceptance or because of competition with food production over land and water.
“could be controversial because of public acceptance 53 or because of their competition with food production over land and water 53,54 .”
From Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C (2016) · cites this paper as [54]
The Global resource implications section (page unavailable) says large-scale BECCS could reduce land available for food production, and the Water section describes an opportunity cost of using water for bioenergy rather than food. These passages support the land-and-water competition concern, but the passages found do not address public acceptance as a reason deployment could be controversial. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIf soil carbon uptake could be increased by 0.4% per year, this would contribute to achieving net zero emissions as per the '4 per mille' initiative, but this is challenging.
“If soil carbon uptake could be increased by 0.4% per year, this would contribute to achieving net zero emissions-as per the '4 per mille' initiative 17 -but this is challenging 18 .”
From The technological and economic prospects for CO2 utilization and removal (2019) · cites this paper as [18]
The Discussion (page unavailable) describes biophysical and economic barriers to deploying negative-emissions technologies, supporting the general point that carbon removal is challenging. But the paper says it does not evaluate soil-carbon storage, so it does not establish the specific difficulty of increasing soil carbon uptake by 0.4% per year. The ‘4 per mille’ proposition is attached to citation 17, not this source. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredPrevious reviews have shown that non-conventional utilization pathways offer substantial CO2 removal potential.
“Previous reviews 18,28,[52][53][54] have shown that these pathways offer substantial CO 2 removal potential:”
From The technological and economic prospects for CO2 utilization and removal (2019) · cites this paper as [18]
The Global resource implications of NETs deployment section estimates gigatonne-scale CO₂ removal for technologies including BECCS, supporting substantial removal potential. But the review assesses negative-emissions technologies, not the cited sentence’s specific category of “non-conventional utilization pathways”; our copy does not establish that those pathways have the stated potential. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredLarge bioenergy deployments require very large commitments of land and may come with significant social impacts (e.g. food prices) and environmental impacts (e.g. land and water impacts).
“Such large bioenergy deployments require very large commitments of land and may come with significant social impacts (e.g.food prices) and environmental impacts (e.g., land and water impacts).[22][23][24]”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [22]
BECCS requires 400-2400 Mha land.
“By contrast, BECCS requires 400-2400 Mha land.22,24,35,36”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [22]
WITCH assumes 9.9 GJ per tCO2 for DACCS, falling within the range of 6.7-22.7 GJ per tCO2 reported in an overview study.
“Another integrated assessment model, WITCH, assumes 9.9 GJ per tCO 2 for DACCS, relying on the values calculated in the DAC assessment of the American Physical Society, 8 falling well within the range of 6.7-22.7 GJ per tCO 2 reported in an overview study (Table 1).22,[30][31][32]35”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [22]
10 Gt CO2 removal via BECCS might require 5-29% of the world's productive land, with lower values achieved with the use of the most productive land.
“For example, 10 Gt CO 2 removal via BECCS might require 5-29% of the world's productive land, with lower values achieved with the use of the most productive land.22,24,[34][35][36]”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [22]
BECCS is highly land intensive.
“BECCS is highly land intensive.”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [22]
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- Authors
- Smith, P., Davis, S. J., Creutzig, F., Fuss, S., Minx, J., Gabrielle, B., Kato, E., Jackson, R. B., Cowie, A., Kriegler, E., van Vuuren, D. P., Rogelj, J., Ciais, P., Milne, J., Canadell, J. G., McCollum, D., Peters, G., Andrew, R., Krey, V., Shrestha, G., Friedlingstein, P., Gasser, T., Grübler, A., Heidug, W. K., Jonas, M., Jones, C. D., Kraxner, F., Littleton, E., Lowe, J., Moreira, J. R., Nakicenovic, N., Obersteiner, M., Patwardhan, A., Rogner, M., Rubin, E., Sharifi, A., Torvanger, A., Yamagata, Y., Edmonds, J., & Yongsung, C.
- Affiliations
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (DE)
- Hertie School (DE)
- Institute of Applied Energy (JP)
- Stanford University (US)
- University of New England (AU)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO)
- United States Global Change Research Program (US)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (SA)
- Met Office (GB)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- Carnegie Mellon University (US)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
- Corresponding author
- Smith, Pete
- ORCID
- Smith, Pete
- Davis, Steven J.
- Creutzig, Felix
- Fuss, Sabine
- Minx, Jan
- Kato, Etsushi
- Jackson, Robert B.
- Cowie, Annette
- Kriegler, Elmar
- Rogelj, Joeri
- Ciais, Philippe
- Canadell, Josep G.
- McCollum, David
- Peters, Glen
- Andrew, Robbie
- Krey, Volker
- Shrestha, Gyami
- Friedlingstein, Pierre
- Gasser, Thomas
- Grübler, Arnulf
- Jonas, Matthias
- Jones, Chris D.
- Kraxner, Florian
- Littleton, Emma
- Lowe, Jason
- Moreira, José Roberto
- Obersteiner, Michael
- Patwardhan, Anand
- Rogner, Mathis
- Sharifi, Ayyoob
- Torvanger, Asbjørn
- Yamagata, Yoshiki
- Edmonds, Jae
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2015-12-07
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 42-50
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W2195453830
- Semantic Scholar
- be2a4ffa8710ced6c7a4cec0dbd8e0569631c348
- Cited by
- 1,440
- References
- 103
- Citations by year
- 2026: 98 · 2025: 131 · 2024: 152 · 2023: 145 · 2022: 161 · 2021: 159 · 2020: 139 · 2019: 140 · 2018: 152 · 2017: 101 · 2016: 56 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 252.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) (submittedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- OPUS 4 (Zuse Institute Berlin) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- RUNE (Research UNE) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government (GA01101)
- Met Office (GA01101)
- Norges Forskningsråd (236296)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/I03002X/1)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanical Engineering › Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Keywords
- negative emissions technologies, biophysical limits, economic costs, 2 °C warming limit, greenhouse gas removal, land use effects, albedo, water impact, energy impacts, integrated assessment models, climate change mitigation
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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