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Learning in the Limit: Income Inference from Credit Extensions

YIN, XIAO·2026·The Journal of Finance

Abstract

Combining a randomized controlled trial with administrative and survey data, this paper shows that credit limit extensions significantly increase total spending and income expectations. By controlling for changes in personal income expectations, the spending response to credit limit extensions weakens by approximately 30%. For financially unconstrained consumers, expectation changes account for around two‐thirds of the spending responses to limit extensions. These findings are consistent with consumers inferring future income from credit supply.

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Metadata

Authors
YIN, X.
Venue
The Journal of Finance
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2026-05-07
Volume
81
Issue
5
Pages
2729-2772
ISSN
  • 0022-1082
  • 1540-6261
Cited by
1
References
3
Language
en
Licence

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Learning in the Limit: Income Inference from Credit Extensions. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1111/jofi.70040
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YIN, X. (2026). Learning in the Limit: Income Inference from Credit Extensions. The Journal of Finance. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70040

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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.