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The Rising Tide Lifts Some Interest Rates: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Loan Pricing

CORREA, RICARDO, HE, AI, HERPFER, CHRISTOPH, LEL, UGUR·2026·The Journal of Finance

Published version of a preprint

Abstract

Banks adjust loan spreads after observing natural disasters linked to climate change. We isolate this updating process by identifying loans to borrowers at risk of, but not directly affected by, such disasters. Loan spreads for these borrowers spike in both primary and secondary markets, while no such updating occurs for non–climate‐related disasters. Evidence suggests a heightened perceived credit risk, which nonetheless cannot fully explain the increase in rates. Taken altogether, increased spreads are explained primarily by salience bias, as they are short‐lived and amplified by media attention. This salience impacts financial decisions at bank‐dependent firms.

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Metadata

Authors
CORREA, R., HE, A., HERPFER, C., & LEL, U.
Venue
The Journal of Finance
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2026-07-28
Volume
81
Issue
5
Pages
2933-2984
ISSN
  • 0022-1082
  • 1540-6261
Cited by
3
References
6
Language
en
Licence

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The Rising Tide Lifts Some Interest Rates: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Loan Pricing. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1111/jofi.70066
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CORREA, R., HE, A., HERPFER, C., & LEL, U. (2026). The Rising Tide Lifts Some Interest Rates: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Loan Pricing. The Journal of Finance. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70066

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

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