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Cited by 597Plant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsForest ecology and managementEcology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests

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McDowell, Nate, Allen, Craig D., Anderson‐Teixeira, Kristina, Brando, Paulo, Brienen, Roel, Chambers, Jeff, Christoffersen, Brad, Davies, Stuart +29 more·2018·New Phytologist
DOI 10.1111/nph.15027
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Abstract

Summary: Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests ( MTF s) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO 2 fertilization‐induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTF s against large‐scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTF s. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. We outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change. Contents Summary 852 I. Introduction 852 II. Increasing mortality rates in the Amazon Basin 854 III. Global and regional mortality drivers and mechanisms 855 IV. On the coupling of mortality drivers and mechanisms 859 V. Mitigating factors that may promote future survival 859 VI. The state of ESM simulations of moist tropical tree mortality 859 VII. Next steps 860 VIII. Conclusions 863 Acknowledgements 863 ORCID 863 References 863

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  • Observational studies suggest that local temperature and precipitation thresholds for dieback vary substantially depending on ecological and species-specific factors.

    “Moreover, observational studies suggest that local temperature and precipitation thresholds for dieback vary substantially depending on ecological and species-specific factors 56,57 .”

    From Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models (2025) · cites this paper as [57]

    The ESM discussion (pp. 19, 23) says climate-envelope models miss variation across climates, species, and topography, and that trees do not all share the same drought-response threshold. But the paper does not report observationally established local temperature and precipitation thresholds for dieback; it calls for experiments to investigate threshold responses (p. 22). (LLM, conf=0.82)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

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Authors
McDowell, N., Allen, C. D., Anderson‐Teixeira, K., Brando, P., Brienen, R., Chambers, J., Christoffersen, B., Davies, S., Doughty, C., Duque, A., Espirito‐Santo, F., Fisher, R., Fontes, C. G., Galbraith, D., Goodsman, D., Grossiord, C., Hartmann, H., Holm, J., Johnson, D. J., Kassim, A. R., Keller, M., Koven, C., Kueppers, L., Kumagai, T., Malhi, Y., McMahon, S. M., Mencuccini, M., Meir, P., Moorcroft, P., Muller‐Landau, H. C., Phillips, O. L., Powell, T., Sierra, C. A., Sperry, J., Warren, J., Xu, C., & Xu, X.
Affiliations
  • Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
  • United States Geological Survey (US)
  • Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute (US)
  • Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
  • University of Leeds (GB)
  • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA 94720 USA
  • Department of Biology and School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Sciences University of Texas Rio Grande Valley Edinburg TX 78539 USA
  • ForestGEO (US)
  • SICCS Northern Arizona University Flagstaff AZ 86001 USA
  • Departmento de Ciencias Forestales Universidad Nacional de Columbia Medellín Columbia
  • Lancaster Environment Center University of Lancaster Lancaster LA1 4YQ UK
  • NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
  • University of California, Berkeley (US)
  • Los Alamos National Laboratory (US)
  • Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (DE)
  • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
  • Forest Research Institute Malaysia (MY)
  • Jet Propulsion Laboratory (US)
  • The University of Tokyo (JP)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ES)
  • Australian National University (AU)
  • Harvard University (US)
  • Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (PA)
  • University of Utah (US)
  • Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN 37830 USA
  • Princeton University (US)
Corresponding author
McDowell, Nate
ORCID
Venue
New Phytologist
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2018-02-16
Volume
219
Issue
3
Pages
851-869
ISSN
  • 0028-646X (ISSN-L)
  • 1469-8137
DOI
10.1111/nph.15027
OpenAlex
W2785348225
Cited by
597
References
6
Citations by year
2026: 59 · 2025: 61 · 2024: 81 · 2023: 76 · 2022: 73 · 2021: 90 · 2020: 68 · 2019: 66 · 2018: 20 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 1
FWCI
6.64
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • New Phytologist (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (acceptedVersion)
  • White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
  • Leicester Research Archive (University of Leicester) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
  • ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
  • ScholarWorks @ UTRGV (The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley) (submittedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
  • OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
  • Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion)
  • Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
  • Smithsonian Digital Repository (Smithsonian Institution) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • U.S. Department of Energy
  • Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment-Tropics project
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Forest ecology and management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Keywords
tree mortality, tropical humid forest, carbon starvation, hydraulic failure, lianas, drought, wind damage, fire, CO2 fertilization, species diversity, climate change, tropical forest carbon cycle, mortality models, Amazon basin
MeSH terms
Carbon Dioxide, Humidity, Models, Theoretical, Trees, Tropical Climate, Forests

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