NPCC4: Concepts and tools for envisioning New York City's futures
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This chapter of the New York City Panel on Climate Change 4 (NPCC4) report discusses the many intersecting social, ecological, and technological‐infrastructure dimensions of New York City (NYC) and their interactions that are critical to address in order to transition to and secure a climate‐adapted future for all New Yorkers. The authors provide an assessment of current approaches to “future visioning and scenarios” across community and city‐level initiatives and examine diverse dimensions of the NYC urban system to reduce risk and vulnerability and enable a future‐adapted NYC. Methods for the integration of community and stakeholder ideas about what would make NYC thrive with scientific and technical information on the possibilities presented by different policies and actions are discussed. This chapter synthesizes the state of knowledge on how different communities of scholarship or practice envision futures and provides brief descriptions of the social‐demographic and housing, transportation, energy, nature‐based, and health futures and many other subsystems of the complex system of NYC that will all interact to determine NYC futures.
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Historically, under expulsive zoning, low-income people and people of color were disproportionately displaced to the more industrial neighborhoods or became unable to afford to move out of these neighborhoods.
“Historically, under expulsive zoning, low-income people and people of color were disproportionately displaced to the more industrial neighborhoods or became unable to afford to move out of these neighborhoods.163”
From NPCC4: Advancing climate justice in climate adaptation strategies for New York City (2024) · cites this paper as [163]
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Self-citationThe Cost-Effectiveness of New York City’s Safe Routes to School Program
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“142,143 Importantly, this is the approach taken in the IPCC’s 6th Assessment (Figure 2) to address the complex and cascading impacts of rapid-onset events (e.g., storm surge) and slow-onset chronic events (e.g., everyday flooding) that are likely to occur in cities.”
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Self-citationNPCC4: Climate change and New York City's flood risk
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Self-citationExcess Mortality Attributable to Extreme Heat in New York City, 1997-2013
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NPCC4: Climate change and New York City's health risk
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Self-citationPlacing Jane Jacobs within the Transatlantic Urban Conversation
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Population scenarios for U.S. states consistent with shared socioeconomic pathways
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NPCC4: Advancing climate justice in climate adaptation strategies for New York City
Foster, S. R., Baptista, A., Nguyen, K. H., Tchen, J., Tedesco, M., & Leichenko, R. (2024) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.15148 · Cited by 26 · cited 3× · see citing works
“…displacement of populations from neighborhoods due to rising property values, increasing rents, upzoning, and other core gentri-fication drivers can also be partly related to greening and climate policies, an increasing concern among vulnerable communities in NYC (see NPCC4, Foster et al. 133 ).”
Harnessing urbanisation for human wellbeing and planetary health
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NPCC4: New York City climate risk information 2022—observations and projections
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Self-citationEvaluating the Impact of the Clean Heat Program on Air Pollution Levels in New York City
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Self-citationNPCC4: Climate change, energy, and energy insecurity in New York City
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NPCC4: Climate change and New York City's flood risk
Rosenzweig, B., Montalto, F. A., Orton, P., Kaatz, J., Maher, N., Kleyman, J., Chen, Z., Sanderson, E., Adhikari, N., McPhearson, T., et al. (2024) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.15175 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Self-citationNPCC4: Climate change and New York City's health risk
Matte, T., Lane, K., Tipaldo, J. F., Barnes, J., Knowlton, K., Torem, E., Anand, G., Yoon, L., Marcotullio, P., Balk, D., et al. (2024) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.15115 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Self-citationNPCC4: Advancing climate justice in climate adaptation strategies for New York City
Foster, S. R., Baptista, A., Nguyen, K. H., Tchen, J., Tedesco, M., & Leichenko, R. (2024) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.15148 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“Equity issues with benefit − cost analysis methods can compound concerns about buyouts (see NPCC4, Balk et al. 205 ).”
NPCC4: New York City climate risk information 2022—observations and projections
Braneon, C. V., Ortiz, L., Bader, D., Devineni, N., Orton, P. M., Rosenzweig, B. R., McPhearson, T., Smalls-Mantey, L. A., Gornitz, V., Mayo, T., et al. (2024) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.15116 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Self-citationNPCC4: Climate change, energy, and energy insecurity in New York City
Yoon, L., Ventrella, J., Marcotullio, P. J., Matte, T., Lane, K., Tipaldo, J. F., Jessel, S., Schmid, K., Casagrande, J., & Elszasz, H. (2024) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.15117 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Self-citationManda, V. K., Christy, V., & Hlali, A. (2024) · Advances in geospatial technologies book series · doi:10.4018/979-8-3693-8054-3.ch009 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Han, D., Xia, J., & Wu, D. (2025) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f16081305 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
The pandemic gap of respiratory viruses during the COVID-19 pandemic
Simon, V. R., Floda, D. L., Gleason, C., Gonzalez-Reiche, A. S., Paniz‐Mondolfi, A., Sordillo, E. M., Palese, P., & van Bakel, H. (2025) · mBio · doi:10.1128/mbio.03376-25 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
NPCC4: Climate risk and equity—advancing knowledge toward a sustainable future | Introduction
Balk, D. L., Braneon, C. V., Leichenko, R. M., Moss, R. H., & Towers, J. E. (2024) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.15149 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Self-citationKimuli, I., Mujjuni, F., & Kirabira, J. B. (2026) · Next Energy · doi:10.1016/j.nxener.2026.100721 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Balk, D. L., Tipaldo, J. F., Jiang, L., & Zoraghein, H. (2026) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2407568122 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationWyman, K. M., & Spiegel-Feld, D. (2025) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009025195.009
Research Priorities for Robust Climate Assessments in the United States
Kenney, M. A., Kopp, R. E., Samaras, C., Alberti, M., Angell, S. Y., Burney, J. A., Cunliff, C., Duffy‐Anderson, J. T., Fischer, L. W., Frey, S. D., et al. (2026) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2025ef007336
Self-citationTorres, P. H. C., Dunder, B., & de Freitas, M. U. (2026) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103164
- Authors
- Balk, D., McPhearson, T., Cook, E. M., Knowlton, K., Maher, N., Marcotullio, P., Matte, T., Moss, R., Ortiz, L., Towers, J., Ventrella, J., & Wagner, G.
- Affiliations
- Baruch College (US)
- The New School (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- The Nature Conservancy (US)
- City University of New York (US)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- Corresponding author
- Balk, Deborah
- McPhearson, Timon
- ORCID
- Venue
- Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2024-06-25
- Volume
- 1539
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 277-322
- ISSN
- 0077-8923 (ISSN-L)
- 1749-6632
- OpenAlex
- W4399997736
- Cited by
- 15
- References
- 199
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 8
- FWCI
- 0.69
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Sustainable Development
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Disaster Management and Resilience
- Keywords
- New York City, climate change adaptation, future visioning, scenario planning, stakeholder engagement, community participation, urban systems, future of housing, energy futures, nature-based solutions, social vulnerability, climate risk mitigation
- MeSH terms
- Housing, Humans, New York City, Transportation, Climate Change
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